Did you see the Elliott flip in 2016 coming?
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  Did you see the Elliott flip in 2016 coming?		 « previous next »
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Question: In all seriousness, Did you see Elliott coming?
#1
Yes		  
#2
No		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 17

Author Topic: Did you see the Elliott flip in 2016 coming?  (Read 926 times)
Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« on: April 16, 2021, 11:31:59 AM »
People like to joke about Elliott county all the time but it really seemed like the flip in 2016 shouldn't have been shocking. The massive margin was but not the county result. Before the election, did you also see Elliott county flipping or narrowly sticking with Clinton?
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TML
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2021, 12:25:35 PM »
Remember that this county shifted R by double digits in both 2008 and 2012, and it voted for Sanders over Clinton in the 2016 primary (similar to how WV voted for Sanders). If we took these factors into account, its flip wasn't a surprise, but the actual margin may have been.
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YE
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2021, 12:30:24 PM »
Yea but that didn’t make it any less sad.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2021, 12:48:52 PM »
It was Obama +2.5 in 2012, worse Democratic performance to date, so I would've if I cared at all about it.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2021, 01:05:33 PM »
Honestly, in hindsight it was probably a bigger shock Obama was able to hold on to the county in 2012.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2021, 03:17:13 PM »
Quote from: Chips on April 16, 2021, 01:05:33 PM
Honestly, in hindsight it was probably a bigger shock Obama was able to hold on to the county in 2012.

Against a more populist Republican he wouldn't have. Romney saved him here.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2021, 03:40:47 PM »
A couple months before the election, yeah.
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2021, 08:19:52 PM »
I saw the flip pretty early, but I still expected Clinton to end up with about 35-40% of the vote.
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2021, 11:42:43 AM »
« Edited: April 17, 2021, 11:52:04 AM by Asenath Waite »
Quote from: Chips on April 16, 2021, 01:05:33 PM
Honestly, in hindsight it was probably a bigger shock Obama was able to hold on to the county in 2012.

That's partly why I didn't see it coming. I thought for sure that if it went for Obama twice it would go for any Democrat.

One thing that sort of surprised me though from interviews I've read and quotes from voters in Elliot is that by and large they didn't have the same sort of "populist" concerns that most other Obama-Trump voters did (trade/immigration) and seemed more motivated by traditional socially conservative issues like abortion and gay marriage. That honestly made me surprised that it didn't flip a long time ago, maybe it was issues like Hobby Lobby and the Kim Davis incident hitting close to home that finally caused the inevitable.
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CELTICEMPIRE
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« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2021, 02:18:25 AM »
No, because I actually thought that Trump would only win 55% in Kentucky at the time.
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