By 2050...
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Poll
Question: By 2050, which party do you think will have controlled the White House more than 50% of that time? Republicans or Democrats?
#1
Republicans
 
#2
Democrats
 
#3
50/50
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: By 2050...  (Read 1205 times)
EastwoodS
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« on: December 15, 2020, 07:05:24 PM »

will partisanship remain the same and will we continue to go back and forth? Will Hispanics save the Republican Party for a generation? Will Democrats solidify just enough electoral votes to win every time?
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2020, 07:50:22 AM »

It's hard to predict. In 1933, the GOP didn't know that they would be locked out of the Presidency (and, except for 1947-48, Congress) for another 20 years, and that several more years of the Depression, a world war, and the beginning of a nuclear arms race would ensue in the meantime. Then again, in 1977, many were proclaiming the GOP dead or dying (witness Henry Fairlie's book, The Elephant Graveyard / The Donkey Serenade: it had the support of barely 20% of Americans per identification, less than half the proportion who identified as Democrats; I'm sure few would have predicted that in 1980, the GOP would take the Senate as well as the Presidency.

I'd say about 50/50, but what do I know?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2020, 12:33:10 PM »

2020 being as close as it was suggests we will continue to have close presidential elections for some time.  The biggest opportunity to break out into a national landslide in the next generation would be a fiscally moderate Hispanic Republican running in a favorable economy (they could make IL/CA/NY close). 
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2020, 02:14:33 PM »

It's hard to predict. In 1933, the GOP didn't know that they would be locked out of the Presidency (and, except for 1947-48, Congress) for another 20 years, and that several more years of the Depression, a world war, and the beginning of a nuclear arms race would ensue in the meantime. Then again, in 1977, many were proclaiming the GOP dead or dying (witness Henry Fairlie's book, The Elephant Graveyard / The Donkey Serenade: it had the support of barely 20% of Americans per identification, less than half the proportion who identified as Democrats; I'm sure few would have predicted that in 1980, the GOP would take the Senate as well as the Presidency.

I'd say about 50/50, but what do I know?
Wow, I didn’t know that part about of 1977. Would never have guessed considering Nixon had won a massive landslide a few years prior. Thanks.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2020, 04:28:54 PM »

It's hard to predict. In 1933, the GOP didn't know that they would be locked out of the Presidency (and, except for 1947-48, Congress) for another 20 years, and that several more years of the Depression, a world war, and the beginning of a nuclear arms race would ensue in the meantime. Then again, in 1977, many were proclaiming the GOP dead or dying (witness Henry Fairlie's book, The Elephant Graveyard / The Donkey Serenade: it had the support of barely 20% of Americans per identification, less than half the proportion who identified as Democrats; I'm sure few would have predicted that in 1980, the GOP would take the Senate as well as the Presidency.

I'd say about 50/50, but what do I know?
Wow, I didn’t know that part about of 1977. Would never have guessed considering Nixon had won a massive landslide a few years prior. Thanks.

Nixon didn't really bring anyone else in with him downballot in that landslide, so it was largely seen as a personal vote against McGovern at the time.  People forget that because both parties play to win at the national level, election outcomes inherently regress toward 50/50 in the long run (in the EC or in congressional seats, not necessarily in the PV).  It takes really exceptional circumstances to generate a long winning streak.

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