When will a neither democrat nor republican be elected POTUS?

[buritobr]

The last one was Zachary Taylor 1848

[SingingAnalyst]

That's a tough one.

On the one hand, change happens faster than ever (look at how SSM went from being almost unthinkable in the 1990s to being almost universally accepted by the end of the 2010s).

On the other hand, the parties are entrenched, now perhaps more than ever: no minor-party candidate has won an EV since 1968.

I voted between 2050 and 2100, on the slight chance that the following happens: the GOP splits into a populist wing and a more Establishment wing. Almost simultaneously, the Democratic Party splits into a quasi-socialist wing and a more Establishment wing. Thus we would have four parties, not two.

Trouble is, I have no idea which sides would retain the name "Republican" and "Democrat". Anyone else what to chime in?

[brucejoel99]

Possibly never, unless there are serious electoral reforms &/or one of the major parties legitimately implodes & segments to such an extent not seen since the Whig collapse.

[Kuumo]

I don't like answering "Never" on questions like this, but there have been two parties called Democrats and Republicans for the last 150 years, and that shows no sign of changing in the foreseeable future due to polarization and Duverger's Law. I voted "After 2100" since it seems like a big if that the U.S. will even still exist then.

[buritobr]

Recently, there was no competitive minor party/independent candidate competitive like Theodore Roosevelt 1912, Robert LaFollette 1924, Thurmond 1948, Wallace 1968, Anderson 1980 and Ross Perot 1992 and 1996. Ralph Nader 2000 and Gary Johnson 2016 did not have the same performance. On the other hand, the sum of the popular vote of minor candidates in every recent election is higher than 1.5%.
But there is no signal that in the next years, a neither democrat nor republican will be elected.

[Alben Barkley]

For this to happen, either one or both of the parties would have to implode or there would have to be serious reforms to our electoral system to make other parties viable.

The first isn’t unprecedented, and history suggests if one was going to implode, it would be the Republicans. They were born out of the ashes of the Whigs, who were born out of the ashes of the Anti-Jacksonians/National Republicans, who were born out of the ashes of the Federalists. Democrats meanwhile have been around in one form or another since about 1828, and the party was a direct continuation of Jefferson’s Democratic-Republicans from 1796. It’s the world’s oldest political party.

I wouldn’t bank on any of this happening any time soon though. The parties, as they have in the past, will likely change and adapt to survive. Even if coalitions and ideologies shift, the names will probably remain for a long time to come.

[ultraviolet]

Before 2050 is only 30 years, and I don’t think we’ll see that before them.

I voted 2050 to 2100 as that gives enough time for who knows what to happen. Most importantly RCV which could open up so many opportunities for third parties

[wimp]

A Trump(ist) winning the GOP nomination in 2024 and Biden/Harris being a dumpster fire could lead to a centrist/center-right party winning.

[brucejoel99]

A Trump(ist) winning the GOP nomination in 2024 and Biden/Harris being a dumpster fire could lead to a centrist/center-right party winning.

[Lechasseur]

Not happening until the Electoral College gets abolished