Suppose Trump's opponents were reversed in 2016 and 2020. Who wins?

[EJ24]

?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Biden was not as universally hated as Hillary. That alone could have won him the 50,000 or so votes in the big 3 states that were needed.

[darklordoftech]

Biden was not as universally hated as Hillary. That alone could have won him the 50,000 or so votes in the big 3 states that were needed.

[Mr. Smith]

Trump wins both times.

There was a time I was certain Clinton was the mistake, but after all these results...no, Trump clearly has a hold in The Midwest and 2016 was a powder keg.

Biden would unlikely have been able to use the same lazy, win-by-doing-nothing approach [itself a clear result of COVID] that brought the obvious results in 1987 and 2008, and he likely would've had similar troubles trying to work against the media's hate-boner for Trump.  Even if he holds the 80,000...there's no guarantee Nevada [Hillary barely held that because of union turnout...might not be enough] and New Hampshire [Trump was less religiously bent] don't go to Trump instead.

And of course by 2020, Hillary would be a complete relic with no connections at that point and still run a graceless campaign.

[McGarnagle]

Biden/Klobuchar (D) 278 49.5%
Trump/Pence (R) 260 45.1%

The primary between Biden and Sanders is less heated than between Clinton and Sanders, and Biden clinches the nomination shortly after Super Tuesday. Biden chooses Amy Klobuchar as his running mate, which helps him significantly in the upper midwest, and narrowly holds onto Pennsylvania. Biden wins, but falls short of a majority of the popular vote. Trump loses, but does a bit better than polling predicted, and vows to run again in 2020.

[Skill and Chance]

Biden wins in 2016 but Trump wins in 2020.  This has more to do with COVID and the economic state of the midwest than who his opponent was. 

[Motorcity]

Biden/Klobuchar (D) 278 49.5%
Trump/Pence (R) 260 45.1%

The primary between Biden and Sanders is less heated than between Clinton and Sanders, and Biden clinches the nomination shortly after Super Tuesday. Biden chooses Amy Klobuchar as his running mate, which helps him significantly in the upper midwest, and narrowly holds onto Pennsylvania. Biden wins, but falls short of a majority of the popular vote. Trump loses, but does a bit better than polling predicted, and vows to run again in 2020.

Yeah this is the most accurate

[Xing]

Biden would've won in 2016, though not by a lot (probably the 278 map, as others posted.)

[Senator Spark]

He'd narrowly defeat Biden but lose to Clinton due to the national conditions in 2020.

[Ferguson97]

Biden wins in 2016.

For 2020, I assume this is a universe where Trump does somehow narrowly beat Biden in 2016. In this case, I think Trump probably narrowly wins re-election just because Clinton is so much more disliked than him.

[Pericles]

Biden was a lot more popular than Hillary. He may have been a better fit for 2020 than 2016, his establishment image could have hurt him in 2016, but he would not have been historically unpopular like Hillary. Therefore, he would have beaten Trump.

It may be that Trump was more popular in 2020 than 2016. Trump did not have the full support of the Republican Party in 2016, and his favorability ratings were worse, while incumbency (in particular the pre-Covid economy) seems to have given Trump a big boost in 2020. So it may be that Biden would have won by more in this hypothetical 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

Biden wins all Hillary states + Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin but not Georgia or Arizona (buy Arizona is the closest state he loses) and we avoid a 4 year clown show. 

[Pericles]

Biden wins all Hillary states + Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin but not Georgia or Arizona (buy Arizona is the closest state he loses) and we avoid a 4 year clown show. 

Hillary only lost Florida by a point so without Trump's newfound Hispanic appeal it could have gone Democratic a third time in a row.

[mileslunn]

Very tough to say.  With how polarized US is, not sure results would have been a lot different although I think Biden would have done better in 2016 than Clinton, but possible may have still fallen short.  In 2020, Clinton may or may have not won or may have even been a 269-269 tie (flips MI, PA, and NE-02, but not WI, GA, and AZ).  Its really hard to say but with how close things were despite candidates being very different, this suggests the re-alignment in 2016 was not a statistical fluke but part of larger trends.

[darklordoftech]

Biden didn’t have the emails or any sexual harrasment or rape accusations, so Access Hollywoodgate would hurt Trump more, Biden would look like a good man in comparison, and Juanita Broaddrick would remain forgotten.

[Chips]

Most likely: Biden wins 2016, Republican wins 2020.

[Samof94]

Biden was a lot more popular than Hillary. He may have been a better fit for 2020 than 2016, his establishment image could have hurt him in 2016, but he would not have been historically unpopular like Hillary. Therefore, he would have beaten Trump.

It may be that Trump was more popular in 2020 than 2016. Trump did not have the full support of the Republican Party in 2016, and his favorability ratings were worse, while incumbency (in particular the pre-Covid economy) seems to have given Trump a big boost in 2020. So it may be that Biden would have won by more in this hypothetical 2016.

Fewer Venezuelans had fled in 2016 than in 2020.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Trump still wins in 2016 and loses in 2020.

[Fusternino]

Biden wins in 2008 Obama fashion. 2020 Biden was only a slighter better candidate than 2016 Clinton. 2016 Biden however is a much better candidate than 2016 Clinton.