How many Dem-held house seats flip?

[Arkansas Yankee]

Are there precedents for opposite party flips in wave years? Like, did R’s gain anywhere in 06/08 in the House and did Dems gain anywhere in 10/14?

Of course I am not predicting a Donkey wave.

Do all of you donkeys really believe there will not be a negative reaction, when your friends try to occupy the area outside the White House?  Their D day is 9/17.

[W]

Peterson and Horn

Also, who the heck is betting on 20+?

[Arkansas Yankee]

Peterson and Horn

Also, who the heck is betting on 20+?

Someone did before me.  Two came after.

You folks tried to frame Trump.  Then you tried to impeach Trump regarding the Ukraine, when it was the Biden family that abused the Ukraine and and looted it.  You did not give Trump one day of peace.   Your actionS I am confident will receive the proper punishment.  I may be anticipating to soon that it will come this year.  But I have Had a premonition it will come this year.  If not, it is still to come.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Peterson, Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi.

[Suburbia]

Peterson, Brinidisi, Malionowski, Axne, Craig....

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Peterson, Brinidisi, Malionowski, Axne, Craig....

Huh?

[Suburbia]

Peterson, Brinidisi, Malionowski, Axne, Craig....

Huh?

Kean Jr. is a good candidate, he is center-right, he is not a right wing extremist. Axne is vulnerable to Iowa trending R, Craig may lose because of the Minneapolis riot backlash and Bob Kroll's machine.

[Ferguson97]

Peterson, Brinidisi, Malionowski, Axne, Craig....

Huh?

Kean Jr. is a good candidate, he is center-right, he is not a right wing extremist. Axne is vulnerable to Iowa trending R, Craig may lose because of the Minneapolis riot backlash and Bob Kroll's machine.

Doesn't matter. NJ is going to be a bloodbath for the GOP.

[LabourJersey]

Peterson, Brinidisi, Malionowski, Axne, Craig....

Huh?

Kean Jr. is a good candidate, he is center-right, he is not a right wing extremist. Axne is vulnerable to Iowa trending R, Craig may lose because of the Minneapolis riot backlash and Bob Kroll's machine.

Doesn't matter. NJ is going to be a bloodbath for the GOP.

Yeah, Kean Jr is definitely going to lose.

[ProgressiveModerate]

MN-7, NY-22, OK-5 are all clearly favored to flip in my view. The Democrats also have many other potentially vulnerable House seats so as their opponents develop themselves as canidates, I expect another 4ish seats or so to be favored to flip. At the end of the day that lands us at about 7 D-> R seats. This cycle will prolly be pretty close to a net wash in the House for Democrats

[ElectionsGuy]

Here's roughly what I think is most likely given the following nationwide house votes:

D+9-11: D+3-10
D+7-9: R+5 to D+3
D+5-7: R+5-12
D+3-5: R+12-20
D+1-3: R+20-28

I think we're most likely to end up within the D+5-7 range this year, so Republicans end up netting high single digits or low double-digit amounts of house seats, but they could lose up to 5 realistically, so they could gain as much as 15, but I would say closer to 10.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Here's roughly what I think is most likely given the following nationwide house votes:

D+9-11: D+3-10
D+7-9: R+5 to D+3
D+5-7: R+5-12
D+3-5: R+12-20
D+1-3: R+20-28

I think we're most likely to end up within the D+5-7 range this year, so Republicans end up netting high single digits or low double-digit amounts of house seats, but they could lose up to 5 realistically, so they could gain as much as 15, but I would say closer to 10.

Wow, you nailed this. Your Presidential prediction was just barely off depending on specific numbers in specific swing states, but was otherwise extremely accurate in many, many states, almost down to the decimal point.

Well done.

[ElectionsGuy]

Here's roughly what I think is most likely given the following nationwide house votes:

D+9-11: D+3-10
D+7-9: R+5 to D+3
D+5-7: R+5-12
D+3-5: R+12-20
D+1-3: R+20-28

I think we're most likely to end up within the D+5-7 range this year, so Republicans end up netting high single digits or low double-digit amounts of house seats, but they could lose up to 5 realistically, so they could gain as much as 15, but I would say closer to 10.

Wow, you nailed this. Your Presidential prediction was just barely off depending on specific numbers in specific swing states, but was otherwise extremely accurate in many, many states, almost down to the decimal point.

Well done.

I appreciate it. My predictions weren't perfect though. I was off on my PV margin to seat gain estimates (overestimating Republican gains a bit per PV increment), but I generally suspected the entire time Republicans would gain seats, not lose. I just thought the PV would be a little better for Democrats (+5, not +3). I think I might've relied too much on 2018 being D+8.6 when a lot of that came from uncontested districts and naturally higher oppositional turnout in a midterm.

I was the most wrong about Minnesota and Georgia this election. I didn't think Minnesota and Wisconsin would vote so far apart, it's the first time in decades that they've voted that differently. The Minneapolis metro definitely shifted more leftward than expected, compared to other Midwest metros. With regards to Georgia, once again, the suburban Atlanta shifts were huge, after they were already huge in 2016. I thought they would shift left again but I didn't expect it to be that much after 2016. Both states were somewhat outliers compared to other states around them.

The most frustrating part of my presidential prediction is that I'm going to be wrong on the outcome in more states vs people who still got the election more wrong on the margins and that now I have the honorable distinction of predicting the overall winner wrong in the last two presidential elections.