Do you consider Iowa a swing state?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Iowa had been deemed to remain a bellwether state by most pundits, but they eventually turned out to be wrong. Can Iowa even still be considered a swing state, given the circumstances?

Iowa is a swing state.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Iowa had been deemed to remain a bellwether state by most pundits, but they eventually turned out to be wrong. Can Iowa even still be considered a swing state, given the circumstances?

Iowa is a swing state.

Bellwether != Swing

And once again, Iowa voting for the GOP candidate in 2 Republican-favorite elections isn't necessarily Earth-shattering.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Bellwether != Swing

I know. I just wanted to emphasize that Iowa also lost its bellwether status by losing its swing- state status. That's why I used the adverb even.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Bellwether != Swing

I know. I just wanted to emphasize that Iowa also lost its bellwether status by losing its swing- state status. That's why I used the adverb even.

I never claimed that it is a bellwether. I claimed it is a swing state, and 21st century electoral history is on my side.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Iowa is a swing state.

“Swing state”

If Iowa had only slightly voted to the right as compared with the whole nation, I would agree with you. Just like I consider North Carolina to be a swing state even though it has voted for all Republican presidential and senatorial candidates since 2014 - while still voting for Roy Cooper twice!!!

But Trump's margins were +8% and +9% in Iowa, whereas Clinton and Biden won the national popular vote by +2% and +3%, respectively.
The last time a Democrat won a senatorial election in Iowa was 2008 (Tom Harkin).
The last time a Democrat won a gubernatorial election there was 2006 (Chet Culver).

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

If Iowa had only slightly voted to the right as compared with the whole nation, I would agree with you. Just like I consider North Carolina to be a swing state even though it has voted for all Republican presidential and senatorial candidates since 2014 2010 - while still voting for Roy Cooper twice!!!

But Trump's margins were +8% and +9% in Iowa, whereas Clinton and Biden won the national popular vote by +2% and +3%, respectively.
The last time a Democrat won a senatorial election in Iowa was 2008 (Tom Harkin).
The last time a Democrat won a gubernatorial election there was 2006 (Chet Culver).

We're not talking about the Senate. Senatorially, sure, Iowa is Republican-favorable. However, these caucuses don't decide Senate candidates, and last I checked, Montana isn't a swing state.

Anyways, Iowa is still swing territory, and even if it wasn't, that doesn't mean that it shouldn't hold the caucus.

[jamestroll]

Here is our daily Iowa thread

[Frodo]

Not after this year.  Biden was the best fitting nominee for Iowa and Ohio -the results have confirmed that these states are now officially tilt-Republican at the very least.   Just like Florida.  

Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania on the other hand...  

[Kuumo]

No. I barely considered Iowa a swing state before the election, since I thought Biden and Greenfield were both unlikely to win there, and it appears I have been vindicated. This election has all but proven that Iowa is going the way of Missouri. If Fred Hubbell couldn't be elected governor in a Democratic wave year and Joe Biden couldn't come within five points of winning, I don't see when Democrats are going to start winning statewide in Iowa in the foreseeable future. Is Iowa one of the reddest states in the nation? Of course not; it is only about as red as Montana, Alaska, or Ohio. But it's certainly no longer competitive enough for Democrats to consider it a swing state.

[Agonized-Statism]

Going to the winning Republican in two close elections (2004 and 2016) is one thing, going to the losing Republican (2020) is another. It's a Republican state now, which just goes to show that the party's center of gravity is moving north. What sets it apart from Florida is demographics and the fact that Republicans are growing stronger in the region the state is in.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Iowa is definitely a Republican state, but only just so.  I think Democrats can still win certain races here (I like Rob Sand's chances for governor in two years), but the conditions have to be right.

[Hope For A New Era]

R-leaning for sure, but definitely still a swing state. Take away the Trump turnout inflation and you get a 75% D House delegation, two Democrats running unopposed for statewide office because everyone just agreed they were unbeatable, and a new Democratic State Auditor who looks to have a bright future in state politics.

It's not going to go the way of Missouri. That much is clear. And neither is Ohio. Missouri was on borrowed time for Democrats even back in the 90s when Clinton won it twice. Iowa and Ohio are very different.

Republicans are going to slip quite a bit in the Plains states going forward because of education. They'll probably be R for a good long while yet (unless Ogallala Aquifer depletion becomes a big deal?), but the massive margins are going to go. Would not be surprised to see single-digit Kansas becoming normal by the end of the 2020s.

[Roll Roons]

R-leaning for sure, but definitely still a swing state. Take away the Trump turnout inflation and you get a 75% D House delegation, two Democrats running unopposed for statewide office because everyone just agreed they were unbeatable, and a new Democratic State Auditor who looks to have a bright future in state politics.

It's not going to go the way of Missouri. That much is clear. And neither is Ohio. Missouri was on borrowed time for Democrats even back in the 90s when Clinton won it twice. Iowa and Ohio are very different.

Republicans are going to slip quite a bit in the Plains states going forward because of education. They'll probably be R for a good long while yet (unless Ogallala Aquifer depletion becomes a big deal?), but the massive margins are going to go. Would not be surprised to see single-digit Kansas becoming normal by the end of the 2020s.

What makes you think so?

[Heebie Jeebie]

R-leaning for sure, but definitely still a swing state. Take away the Trump turnout inflation and you get a 75% D House delegation, two Democrats running unopposed for statewide office because everyone just agreed they were unbeatable, and a new Democratic State Auditor who looks to have a bright future in state politics.

It's not going to go the way of Missouri. That much is clear. And neither is Ohio. Missouri was on borrowed time for Democrats even back in the 90s when Clinton won it twice. Iowa and Ohio are very different.

Republicans are going to slip quite a bit in the Plains states going forward because of education. They'll probably be R for a good long while yet (unless Ogallala Aquifer depletion becomes a big deal?), but the massive margins are going to go. Would not be surprised to see single-digit Kansas becoming normal by the end of the 2020s.

Yes!  You nailed it on education.  I'd add that increases in immigration (or in-migration) could also be decisive, but we're not seeing enough of that yet.  Biden's administration should do whatever it can to facilitate immigration, R&D, and university growth in all of these low-population plains states.  Conveniently, these three priorities go hand-in-hand.

Also, your name is very clever but very depressing.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa did give the majority of its cumulative votes for the House of Representatives in 2018, and Iowa came close to ousting Joni Ernst in 2020. Biden is not a populist, and Trump is; Iowa is a good state for populists, Right or Left. (if you want to know what state is least friendly to populists... try Virginia).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not after this year.  Biden was the best fitting nominee for Iowa and Ohio -the results have confirmed that these states are now officially tilt-Republican at the very least.   Just like Florida.  

Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania on the other hand...  

No - the caucuses would strongly suggest otherwise. He tried his hand at retail politics and clearly put off the electorate. This is one of the few states in which I'd have expected Buttigieg to do better than Biden.

IA isn't a swing state, though. Its trend might not have been that bad considering the relatively small change in the NPV, but the lack of any serious mean reversion and the gradual continuation of that trend means it's out of reach except in Democratic wave years.

[RINO Tom]

I suppose if I were to categorize it in one of the categories that Atlas uses a lot, I would say it is in between "Lean R" and "Likely R," depending on the matchup ... so I guess, no?  However, I do maintain that it is still a very swingY state, and I do not at all see a Missouri-type transformation.  In other words, in 10-20 years, I expect a Democratic nominee to carry it again.  All in all, though, it quite obviously leans Republican decidedly.

[ElectionsGuy]

Iowa voted 10+ points R to the nation twice now. It elected a Republican governor in a blue wave year. It's a red state. It is now where Missouri was during the Obama years, and Missouri is now where Arkansas was under Obama.

[Chips]

I have it as Likely R for 2024 and beyond now.

[kwabbit]

R-leaning for sure, but definitely still a swing state. Take away the Trump turnout inflation and you get a 75% D House delegation, two Democrats running unopposed for statewide office because everyone just agreed they were unbeatable, and a new Democratic State Auditor who looks to have a bright future in state politics.

It's not going to go the way of Missouri. That much is clear. And neither is Ohio. Missouri was on borrowed time for Democrats even back in the 90s when Clinton won it twice. Iowa and Ohio are very different.

Republicans are going to slip quite a bit in the Plains states going forward because of education. They'll probably be R for a good long while yet (unless Ogallala Aquifer depletion becomes a big deal?), but the massive margins are going to go. Would not be surprised to see single-digit Kansas becoming normal by the end of the 2020s.

Kansas reliably returning single-digit margins at the federal level that quickly seems a little unlikely. Frankly, the Republicans have had a disastrous decade in Kansas, with Brownback running a deeply unpopular administration and an even more unpopular Kobach as the face of the state party. Even with that, Trump, a poor fit for the state, still won with margins over 20 points to the right of the nation, and Marshall, running against a much-hyped, moderate, and well funded opponent, still won by 13. Also Kansas if anything seems like a state that could snap back in a post-Trump GOP.

I do enjoy the Blansas meme though.

[Hope For A New Era]

R-leaning for sure, but definitely still a swing state. Take away the Trump turnout inflation and you get a 75% D House delegation, two Democrats running unopposed for statewide office because everyone just agreed they were unbeatable, and a new Democratic State Auditor who looks to have a bright future in state politics.

It's not going to go the way of Missouri. That much is clear. And neither is Ohio. Missouri was on borrowed time for Democrats even back in the 90s when Clinton won it twice. Iowa and Ohio are very different.

Republicans are going to slip quite a bit in the Plains states going forward because of education. They'll probably be R for a good long while yet (unless Ogallala Aquifer depletion becomes a big deal?), but the massive margins are going to go. Would not be surprised to see single-digit Kansas becoming normal by the end of the 2020s.

Kansas reliably returning single-digit margins at the federal level that quickly seems a little unlikely. Frankly, the Republicans have had a disastrous decade in Kansas, with Brownback running a deeply unpopular administration and an even more unpopular Kobach as the face of the state party. Even with that, Trump, a poor fit for the state, still won with margins over 20 points to the right of the nation, and Marshall, running against a much-hyped, moderate, and well funded opponent, still won by 13. Also Kansas if anything seems like a state that could snap back in a post-Trump GOP.

I do enjoy the Blansas meme though.

There will not be snapback. Realignments don't work like that.

[kwabbit]

R-leaning for sure, but definitely still a swing state. Take away the Trump turnout inflation and you get a 75% D House delegation, two Democrats running unopposed for statewide office because everyone just agreed they were unbeatable, and a new Democratic State Auditor who looks to have a bright future in state politics.

It's not going to go the way of Missouri. That much is clear. And neither is Ohio. Missouri was on borrowed time for Democrats even back in the 90s when Clinton won it twice. Iowa and Ohio are very different.

Republicans are going to slip quite a bit in the Plains states going forward because of education. They'll probably be R for a good long while yet (unless Ogallala Aquifer depletion becomes a big deal?), but the massive margins are going to go. Would not be surprised to see single-digit Kansas becoming normal by the end of the 2020s.

Kansas reliably returning single-digit margins at the federal level that quickly seems a little unlikely. Frankly, the Republicans have had a disastrous decade in Kansas, with Brownback running a deeply unpopular administration and an even more unpopular Kobach as the face of the state party. Even with that, Trump, a poor fit for the state, still won with margins over 20 points to the right of the nation, and Marshall, running against a much-hyped, moderate, and well funded opponent, still won by 13. Also Kansas if anything seems like a state that could snap back in a post-Trump GOP.

I do enjoy the Blansas meme though.

There will not be snapback. Realignments don't work like that.

You can't know what's a realignment until after the fact. Demographic groups do swing back and forth from election to election. They don't just follow an immutable trend. I do think Kansas college-educated voters are trending Dem, but I think Trump was so toxic to that group that the next non-Trumpian Republican will do better than he did, even if the trend continues. Example: College-Educated Whites trended GOP when Romney ran, even though they might've trended left against a baseline GOP candidate. And Republicans in suburbia outperformed Trump down ballot. I think all expectation should be some recovery amongst college-educated Whites by the GOP post-Trump, and trends are not so quick or immutable to eliminate that possibility.