How many counties will JB Pritzker win outside of Chicagoland when he runs for reelection?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Illinois has 102 counties in total.

Recent Democratic showings:

1998: 43 total (42 outside Chicagoland)
2002: 36 total (35 outside Chicagoland)
2006: 31 total (28 outside Chicagoland)
2010: 4 total (3 outside Chicagoland)
2014: 1 total (0 outside Chicagoland) - Democrat won only Cook
2018: 16 total (10 outside Chicagoland)

Given JB’s unpopularity compared to that of Quinn and Blago in the past, I think JB stands a great chance of being swept downstate like Quinn was in 2014. Especially add that to the fact that JB has almost gone out of his way to show his disdain for the rest of the state, especially pre-pandemic, and that his executive orders regarding the pandemic were not well received in the non-Chicago portion of the state (even though I personally approve of them).

The easiest two counties for him will be St. Clair County (East St. Louis) and Champaign County (Champaign). Of the counties he won last time, the toughest hold is probably Fulton, a blue-collar ancestrally Democratic county that broke big for Trump.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Pritzker has a 57% approval rating, so if that's what unpopular is, I can't imagine your standards for popularity.

This feels like the sort of wishcasting where people assume a Governor will be unpopular based on their ugly personal past, but turn out to be decently liked as Governor. The wishcasting that surrounded Terry McAuliffe, for example.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Pritzker has a 57% approval rating, so if that's what unpopular is, I can't imagine your standards for popularity.

This feels like the sort of wishcasting where people assume a Governor will be unpopular based on their ugly personal past, but turn out to be decently liked as Governor. The wishcasting that surrounded Terry McAuliffe, for example.

Based on what I’ve seen in my area I assume the positive side of that approval rating is concentrated in Chicagoland. Given that a large majority of the state’s population lives in or near Chicago, I’m not insinuating that he’s unpopular statewide. I’m saying he is unpopular in every part of the state except for Chicago and the suburbs. I suppose I didn’t really spell that out in my original post.

[One Term Floridian]

Pritzker has a 57% approval rating, so if that's what unpopular is, I can't imagine your standards for popularity.

This feels like the sort of wishcasting where people assume a Governor will be unpopular based on their ugly personal past, but turn out to be decently liked as Governor. The wishcasting that surrounded Terry McAuliffe, for example.

Based on what I’ve seen in my area I assume the positive side of that approval rating is concentrated in Chicagoland. Given that a large majority of the state’s population lives in or near Chicago, I’m not insinuating that he’s unpopular statewide. I’m saying he is unpopular in every part of the state except for Chicago and the suburbs. I suppose I didn’t really spell that out in my original post.

Yeah. I think JB is slightly favored for re-election even in a Biden midterm, but he is certainly going to erode quite a bit of support outside of Chicagoland. Not entirely his fault mind you, IL outside of the Chicago area is trending sharply Republican after all.

[RINO Tom]

These are the Downstate counties he won last time:

Winnebago (Rockford)
Rock Island (Quad Cities)
DeKalb (NIU)
Peoria
Knox
Fulton
Champaign (U of I)
St. Clair (Metro East, STL Suburbs)
Jackson (SIU)
Alexander

I think he will win Champaign, Rock Island, St. Clair, Jackson and Alexander (which voted for Rauner in 2014, yes, but voted in line with his winning margin).  While there is an obvious Chicagoland/Downstate divide, keep in mind you still have a lot of Downstate areas that voted decidedly to the left of Chicago's suburban counties, especially somewhere like McHenry County (suburban and the wealthiest county in the state, giving Rauner 52% while he got 38% statewide...) in 2018 ... I mean, even places that flipped to Pritzker and were talked about the most like DuPage, Kane and Kendall Counties voted decidedly to the right of places like Peoria, Rock Island and even moreso Champaign.  Illinois politics are simultaneously more complicated than "Chicago and everything else" and yet, when it comes down to the actual end numbers, pretty much just that complicated, haha.

[Sol]

These are the Downstate counties he won last time:

Winnebago (Rockford)
Rock Island (Quad Cities)
DeKalb (NIU)
Peoria
Knox
Fulton
Champaign (U of I)
St. Clair (Metro East, STL Suburbs)
Jackson (SIU)
Alexander

I think he will win Champaign, Rock Island, St. Clair, Jackson and Alexander (which voted for Rauner in 2014, yes, but voted in line with his winning margin).  While there is an obvious Chicagoland/Downstate divide, keep in mind you still have a lot of Downstate areas that voted decidedly to the left of Chicago's suburban counties, especially somewhere like McHenry County (suburban and the wealthiest county in the state, giving Rauner 52% while he got 38% statewide...) in 2018 ... I mean, even places that flipped to Pritzker and were talked about the most like DuPage, Kane and Kendall Counties voted decidedly to the right of places like Peoria, Rock Island and even moreso Champaign.  Illinois politics are simultaneously more complicated than "Chicago and everything else" and yet, when it comes down to the actual end numbers, pretty much just that complicated, haha.

I'm curious why you're betting against a win in Fulton--he won it in 2018 (as you noted) and it was surprisingly close in 2014.

[jamestroll]

Pritzker is going to do far better in suburbs compared to 2018 in 2022.

All things considered, Rauner was a great fit for the Chicagoland suburbs and overperformed other Republicans bigly. In fact, Pritzker being so toxic in the Chicagoland suburbs probably saved a few seats for the GOP including DuPage County sheriff.

But with the way things changed, unless there is a major shift in political conditions and coalitions, I expect Pritzker to carry only Cook, Lake, Will, DuPage, Champaign and maybe St. Clair. A solid re-election victory and I am taking into account that a few collar counties will narrowly vote GOP.

But way to early to tell how this election will go except that Pritzker will do better in DuPage County.

[jamestroll]

Pritzker has a 57% approval rating, so if that's what unpopular is, I can't imagine your standards for popularity.

This feels like the sort of wishcasting where people assume a Governor will be unpopular based on their ugly personal past, but turn out to be decently liked as Governor. The wishcasting that surrounded Terry McAuliffe, for example.

Based on what I’ve seen in my area I assume the positive side of that approval rating is concentrated in Chicagoland. Given that a large majority of the state’s population lives in or near Chicago, I’m not insinuating that he’s unpopular statewide. I’m saying he is unpopular in every part of the state except for Chicago and the suburbs. I suppose I didn’t really spell that out in my original post.

Yeah. I think JB is slightly favored for re-election even in a Biden midterm, but he is certainly going to erode quite a bit of support outside of Chicagoland. Not entirely his fault mind you, IL outside of the Chicago area is trending sharply Republican after all.

Pritzker slightly favored for re-election? what? slightly? lol Early stage it has to be placed as likely dem.

IL wont just become a GOP stronghold just because Biden is elected President. It is not Iowa you know.

[Gass3268]

Pritzker has a 57% approval rating, so if that's what unpopular is, I can't imagine your standards for popularity.

This feels like the sort of wishcasting where people assume a Governor will be unpopular based on their ugly personal past, but turn out to be decently liked as Governor. The wishcasting that surrounded Terry McAuliffe, for example.

Based on what I’ve seen in my area I assume the positive side of that approval rating is concentrated in Chicagoland. Given that a large majority of the state’s population lives in or near Chicago, I’m not insinuating that he’s unpopular statewide. I’m saying he is unpopular in every part of the state except for Chicago and the suburbs. I suppose I didn’t really spell that out in my original post.

One thing I've noticed is every time he gives a major speech or proclamation, it tends to be Thompson Center in Chicago and not in Springfield. 

[One Term Floridian]

Pritzker has a 57% approval rating, so if that's what unpopular is, I can't imagine your standards for popularity.

This feels like the sort of wishcasting where people assume a Governor will be unpopular based on their ugly personal past, but turn out to be decently liked as Governor. The wishcasting that surrounded Terry McAuliffe, for example.

Based on what I’ve seen in my area I assume the positive side of that approval rating is concentrated in Chicagoland. Given that a large majority of the state’s population lives in or near Chicago, I’m not insinuating that he’s unpopular statewide. I’m saying he is unpopular in every part of the state except for Chicago and the suburbs. I suppose I didn’t really spell that out in my original post.

Yeah. I think JB is slightly favored for re-election even in a Biden midterm, but he is certainly going to erode quite a bit of support outside of Chicagoland. Not entirely his fault mind you, IL outside of the Chicago area is trending sharply Republican after all.

Pritzker slightly favored for re-election? what? slightly? lol Early stage it has to be placed as likely dem.

IL wont just become a GOP stronghold just because Biden is elected President. It is not Iowa you know.

IL notoriously likes a lot of gubernatorial turnover.

[jamestroll]

Pritzker has a 57% approval rating, so if that's what unpopular is, I can't imagine your standards for popularity.

This feels like the sort of wishcasting where people assume a Governor will be unpopular based on their ugly personal past, but turn out to be decently liked as Governor. The wishcasting that surrounded Terry McAuliffe, for example.

Based on what I’ve seen in my area I assume the positive side of that approval rating is concentrated in Chicagoland. Given that a large majority of the state’s population lives in or near Chicago, I’m not insinuating that he’s unpopular statewide. I’m saying he is unpopular in every part of the state except for Chicago and the suburbs. I suppose I didn’t really spell that out in my original post.

Yeah. I think JB is slightly favored for re-election even in a Biden midterm, but he is certainly going to erode quite a bit of support outside of Chicagoland. Not entirely his fault mind you, IL outside of the Chicago area is trending sharply Republican after all.

Pritzker slightly favored for re-election? what? slightly? lol Early stage it has to be placed as likely dem.

IL wont just become a GOP stronghold just because Biden is elected President. It is not Iowa you know.

IL notoriously likes a lot of gubernatorial turnover.

Pritzker will be a two term governor and afterwards Presidential nominee in 2028 if Biden loses in 2024.

[Red Wall]

Zero on a Biden midterm. If his approvals are on the toilet he only wins Cook but I think he gets narrow wins from Lake, Will and DuKaren.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

It's a safe bet that he'll underperform 2018 in a Biden midterm, but without knowing what demos are most likely to defect or stay home under Biden, this kind of exercise is going to be very hard. This all depends on how numbers look in two weeks but also in what the major news stories that drive activism in the Biden term look like.

Pritzker will be a two term governor and afterwards Presidential nominee in 2028 if Biden loses in 2024.

Pritzker won't get anywhere near the Presidential nomination in his life. Every year he waits the party base will become more unfavorable for him.

[Senator Incitatus]

Too early to say. A landslide isn't out of possibility if he gets a weak opponent, and who's in the White House will be a big factor.

[Donerail]

Very difficult for me to imagine a scenario where he loses Champaign, at least. Voted 4 (DeKalb, Rock Island, St. Clair & Champaign).