CNN: Wisconsin - Biden +10 | North Carolina - Biden +3

[Hope For A New Era]

Driftless swinging back in dramatic fashion + unexpected leftward shifts in suburban Milwaukee?

That's the only explanation I have.

[redjohn]

WI is currently in Biden's favor, no doubt about it. But as fellow Wisconsinite ElectionsGuy pointed out, Biden is not winning WI by a margin higher than Obama did in 2012. Portions of the state (especially areas of northern & central WI) are almost guaranteed to swing right, and swings in the WOW counties will not be enough to turn any of those counties anywhere close to blue.

Rural WI will continue to trend R, and Biden will do better in suburbs. Urban turnout is TBD, but my guess is Milwaukee has much higher turnout than 2016 and 2018.

[Use Your Illusion]

Driftless swinging back in dramatic fashion + unexpected leftward shifts in suburban Milwaukee?

That's the only explanation I have.

That and I think it's possible southwest WI at-large is trending back to the Democrats. Consider the fact that Evers and Vukmir won their seats on the back of strong performances in that region it sounds more to me like Clinton was just a historical disaster.


I could be wrong, it could just be a healthy convention bump. But odds of Joe winning WI while doing as bad as Clinton did in southwest WI seems low to me

[Hope For A New Era]

Portions of the state (especially areas of northern & central WI) are almost guaranteed to swing right, and swings in the WOW counties will not be enough to turn any of those counties anywhere close to blue.

Margins matter. Look at KS-GOV 2018. Everyone kept talking about the suburbs, completely ignoring the massive rural swing from 2016. If you move every rural county in a state 10+ percentage points to the left, it adds up.

When you shift margins in high-population counties like the ones around Milwaukee, it can really add up.

That and I think it's possible southwest WI at-large is trending back to the Democrats. Consider the fact that Evers and Vukmir won their seats on the back of strong performances in that region it sounds more to me like Clinton was just a historical disaster.

I could be wrong, it could just be a healthy convention bump. But odds of Joe winning WI while doing as bad as Clinton did in southwest WI seems low to me

clinton is uniquely toxic I expect a lot more blue on that map, even if Biden loses the state!

[DrScholl]

This is going to age just about as well as Evers' +10 poll from Marist in 2018. Seriously, if you find Biden doing better than Obama '12 in Wisconsin, you're doing something wrong.

Since you seem to know everything why don't you start your own polling firm and do polls?

[Gass3268]

WI is currently in Biden's favor, no doubt about it. But as fellow Wisconsinite ElectionsGuy pointed out, Biden is not winning WI by a margin higher than Obama did in 2012. Portions of the state (especially areas of northern & central WI) are almost guaranteed to swing right, and swings in the WOW counties will not be enough to turn any of those counties anywhere close to blue.

Rural WI will continue to trend R, and Biden will do better in suburbs. Urban turnout is TBD, but my guess is Milwaukee has much higher turnout than 2016 and 2018.

Recent polling (Marquette and Siena) have indicated that there might actually be some bounce back in the rural north for Biden. This makes sense given his national numbers with older voters and White Catholics. I'm not expecting Biden to win any non-traditional Democratic county up there, but the margins could improve a bit.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1305902371533393920

[Wiz in Wis]

WI is currently in Biden's favor, no doubt about it. But as fellow Wisconsinite ElectionsGuy pointed out, Biden is not winning WI by a margin higher than Obama did in 2012. Portions of the state (especially areas of northern & central WI) are almost guaranteed to swing right, and swings in the WOW counties will not be enough to turn any of those counties anywhere close to blue.

Rural WI will continue to trend R, and Biden will do better in suburbs. Urban turnout is TBD, but my guess is Milwaukee has much higher turnout than 2016 and 2018.

Recent polling (Marquette and Siena) have indicated that there might actually be some bounce back in the rural north for Biden. This makes sense given his national numbers with older voters and White Catholics. I'm not expecting Biden to win any non-traditional Democratic county up there, but the margins could improve a bit.

I am of the strong belief that Biden will end up winning by around 8, with pretty much the same map as the SOS map from 2018, adding maybe Trempealeau, Dunn, Pierce, and maybe Brown to the Dem column.

[ExSky]

Who would have thought one year ago that Wisconsin would be a safer bet for the Democrat than Pennsylvania?

Especially when you compare Evers/Baldwin and 0 House gains to Wolf/Casey and 3 House gains.

When the final vote is tallied I’m still firmly believe Penn will the more left than Wisconsin. Biden’s response to Kenosha made it closer than I thought but I still believe Penn will be more left.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

CNN/SSRS
September 9-13

NC
787 likely voters
MoE (among likely voters): 4.4%

Jorgensen (L) 2%
Hawkins (G) 1%
Other <0.5% (rounds to zero, but a few voters)
None of these <0.5%
Blankenship (C) 0% (no voters)
No opinion 2%

WI
816 likely voters
MoE (among likely voters): 4.2%

Jorgensen (L) 3%
None of these 1%
Other <0.5%
No opinion 1%

[BaldEagle1991]

I think the 2020 Wisconsin results will be a similar margin to the 2018 gubernatorial Wisconsin election.

Is that a possibility?

[Dr. Arch]

I think the 2020 Wisconsin results will be a similar margin to the 2018 gubernatorial Wisconsin election.

Is that a possibility?

I doubt that Trump will garner the same amount of support that Walker had. If he wins, he wins barely (doesn't look like it will happen twice in a row), and if he loses, he'll lose convincingly.

A lot of houses that had Walker signs that I saw 2 years ago now have Biden signs, and Trump just doesn't have that advantage in WOW that Walker had.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This is going to age just about as well as Evers' +10 poll from Marist in 2018. Seriously, if you find Biden doing better than Obama '12 in Wisconsin, you're doing something wrong.

Uncle Joe has the Scranton Rust Belt mega coattails going from Scranton all the way to the Iron Range.