Will Biden win any state where he trails polls on election day?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Iowans are sick of Trump, a Biden win wouldn't shock me.
 
 But I also think Wisconsin will still go to Trump and that Arizona might be a cycle away but it wouldn't shock me if Arizona is won by Biden either. This is all assuming a free and fair election which is a huge question mark at this point.

Blue IA and red WI isn't happenning. If Biden is winning IA, he's doing well enough in rural WI to carry the state. Rs are already pretty maxed out in the WI suburbs, so even if trends stall because of BLM, they aren't gonna be gaining many votes in suburban Milwaukee.

[Hope For A New Era]

I think Iowans are sick of Trump, a Biden win wouldn't shock me.

Trump's net approval was -9 in the state according to Morning Consult (lower than in Minnesota!) as recently as January 2020, so I'm surprised Biden isn't leading in the state.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Biden is only down a point or two in Texan polling on election day, I'd probably bet a Benjamin he takes the state. It might take days or even weeks before that's concrete though

Texas has no non-excuse absentee. We’ll know that results of the state on election night.

I just lied and said I am disabled to get mine, pretty easy.

[YE]

If Biden is only down a point or two in Texan polling on election day, I'd probably bet a Benjamin he takes the state. It might take days or even weeks before that's concrete though

Texas has no non-excuse absentee. We’ll know that results of the state on election night.

I just lied and said I am disabled to get mine, pretty easy.

I don't think the average voter thinks outside the box like that.