Who's the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the House: early September edition

[politicallefty]

If Democrats have a really good night, most of them are going down in defeat. I'd say NE-02 is the biggest concern for Republicans, both at the presidential and House level. The general thinking seems to be that Biden is ahead by quite a bit and those headwinds should take down Bacon.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Don Bacon, with Roy and then Garcia very close behind.

Garcia, but he can still definately win.

Again, that’s definately not how "definitely" is spelled.

Sorry, I'm definately not trying to drive you crazy

[LimoLiberal]

Don Bacon, because trends.

[Vosem]

Garcia seems like the obvious choice given that he is running in by far the most Clinton seat, although prognosticators seem mildly confident that he is favored for reelection and Antelope Valley does seem like the sort of place where law enforcement having a prominent position in national Republican rhetoric might help the GOP.

For most of the other choices there seems to be little reason to think they'd lose in 2020 given their survival in 2018. I voted for Garcia, but the three other choices that seem logical are either Rodney Davis (as the narrowest Republican winner from 2018 running for reelection) or either Ann Wagner or Scott Perry (2018 under-performers who are now facing more serious challengers). I think I can imagine any of these guys losing even in the scenario where Republicans are making fairly substantial net House gains.

EDIT: Having looked at the poll results, I think Chip Roy's vulnerability is extremely overhyped. If an Austin-area GOP incumbent is going down to defeat, it'll very likely be McCaul, not Roy.

[walleye26]

I voted Bacon because Chabot should survive because of gerrymandering, Roy is a bit too safe, Garcia seems to be ok ATM, and Hagedorn is in a seat I think Trump will win substantially. The rest I’m not sure exactly.