Rate VA-07

[VAR]

Lean D?

[DINGO Joe]

Well, on paper, Freitas would seem to be a competitive candidate, the problem being Freitas keeps having problems with things on paper.

[Politics Fan]

Tossup a lot depends on if Trump can win here again like he did in 16. If he wins by at a least a couple whoever the Republican nominee is has a decent chance at victory anything less and Spanberger probably hangs on. Keep in mind Gillespie still won by three here even while losing by 8.9% statewide.

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, probably Lean D at this point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tilt D for now, but waaaaay closer to Lean D than Tilt R.

[wbrocks67]

Doesn't Spanberger have like $4M COH? I don't see this even being within 5 points.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Spanberger is going to crush it in the Richmond suburbs portion of this district even harder than she did in 2018.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tilt D, and closer to Lean than Tossup

[We Live in Black and White]

Freitas could have been great, but then he went and clowned it. Lean D.

[President Johnson]

Lean Democratic. Joe Biden will most likely win the district as well (Kaine won by five I believe?)

Abigail Spanberger is among the vulnerable Democrats I most want to win, as she's one of the best fresh(wo)men.

[Calthrina950]

Lean Democratic. As was mentioned above, Tim Kaine carried this district in 2018, and I think Joe Biden has a very good chance of winning here as well, especially if he carries Virginia by double digits like the polls suggest. Spanberger has been a relative moderate during her time in office, and the Richmond suburbs are continuing to trend Democratic. Moreover, she is not facing the most effective opponent. Freitas' inability to meet basic filing deadlines doesn't bode too well for his capabilities as an effective campaigner. Spanberger will almost certainly win if Biden does manage to prevail here.

[Badger]

I don't believe in tilt ratings, so lean d.

Not much more to add what other posters have said. Buying will at least come very close in this District if not winning it outright. Spanberger will likely outrun buying by anywhere from anywhere from a few to several points. It would require both her and Biden's campaigns to, while perhaps not collapse, both materially stall for this District to flip.