Let's say you just woke up from being in a coma since 2014...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

You're cheering the US team in the 2014 World Cup, when you got too excited and hit your head and the lights go black.

You wake up, and seven years have passed. You know nothing at all about the 2016 election, or anything else that's happened. What you do know is:

1. The President is a Republican
2. The Democratic challenger is ahead by 8 points, and has been easily ahead for months
3. The President has been at or near 44% approval, 52% disapproval for his/her entire time in office
4. Democrats gained 41 seats in the House in 2018
5. Unemployment for April, 2020 was 14.7%

How would you characterize this race?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Personally, I think that 2016 made us so shy, nobody really wants to say anything with any kind of confidence. If not for what happened that year, people would be acting like Biden already won at this point.

They'd be wrong, but that's what they would think.

[Illini Moderate]

You're cheering the US team in the 2014 World Cup, when you got too excited and hit your head and the lights go black.

You wake up, and seven years have passed. You know nothing at all about the 2016 election, or anything else that's happened. What you do know is:

1. The President is a Republican
2. The Democratic challenger is ahead by 8 points, and has been easily ahead for months
3. The President has been at or near 44% approval, 52% disapproval for his/her entire time in office
4. Democrats gained 41 seats in the House in 2018
5. Unemployment for April, 2020 was 14.7%

How would you characterize this race?

Seeing those unemployment numbers of expect a landslide. Obviously real life will be different because many blame the virus and not Trump

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

You're cheering the US team in the 2014 World Cup, when you got too excited and hit your head and the lights go black.

You wake up, and seven years have passed. You know nothing at all about the 2016 election, or anything else that's happened. What you do know is:

1. The President is a Republican
2. The Democratic challenger is ahead by 8 points, and has been easily ahead for months
3. The President has been at or near 44% approval, 52% disapproval for his/her entire time in office
4. Democrats gained 41 seats in the House in 2018
5. Unemployment for April, 2020 was 14.7%

How would you characterize this race?

Seeing those unemployment numbers of expect a landslide. Obviously real life will be different because many blame the virus and not Trump

Yeah, I thought about whether I should throw that piece of information in there. But you look at any major recession, and the reasons aren't really important. It wasn't Republicans' fault the entire mortgage industry decided to go all-in on worthless mortgages in the early 2000s. You could blame the early 2000s recession on the tech bubble. The reason often doesn't matter. People blame incumbents.

In a world in which 2016 never happened, where polls are generally reliable and only the close elections are in doubt, right now would look to everyone like a Democratic cake walk.

[longtimelurker]

Upon being told that Donald Trump was president, you have a stroke and immediately lapse back into a coma.

[Non Swing Voter]

I mean you'd have to think Likely or Safe D.  The only reason people don't is because of 2016.

[here2view]

Upon being told that Donald Trump was president, you have have a stroke and immediately lapse back into a coma.

"Nurse, you can put me back to sleep, thanks."

[OSR stands with Israel]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Shows exactly what's wrong with this forum thinks about 2020, and why Biden is being underestimated. Obama won in 2008 because rightfully or wrongfully, people widely blamed the sitting Republican president for the recssion. Obama lost ground in 2012, even though the country was doing much better, but still won. Trump narrowly won by 100k votes in the midwest in 2016. Now that he's president, the country is in a crissi that will still be very relavent in November, and with the exception of some hardcore supporters, he is being blamed. He has been very consistantly trailing Biden, and polling is much more stable than in 2016. Biden is already polling at 50% on average nationally, which means that right now, he has at least half the country behind him, with 8% of "undecideds" to pick off from. Furthermore, polling wasn't that terrible in 2016, but there was a media narrative going around that ofc Trump can't win. Infact, on Nov 6, he was leading in states worth 270 EVs exactly in the rcp average, but people still said the election was pretty safe for Clinton. 2016 was a series of very specifc cirrcumstances that caused Clinton to lose, and that isn't bound to happen again in 2020. Another thing to not understimate is te 2018 midterms. Some peopel argue that 2010 didn't predict a Republican win in 2010, but that was mainly because turnout was low. In 2018, Ds got more votes than Clinton in many states, which is insane for a midterm election, showing that there is a lot of people particuarly upset with the current administration. Most people predicting a 2020 win are either Trump supporters who are overestimating teh size of his base, and refuse to look at the whole picture, or Democrats who are very pessimistic after the 2016 election. The fact is, Biden is nationally leading Trump by 8 points, and the 2016 events that lead to a narrow Trump victory against "all odds" aren't bound to repeat themselves.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Upon being told that Donald Trump was president, you have have a stroke and immediately lapse back into a coma.

"Nurse, you can put me back to sleep, thanks."

"No, quit yanking me. Is it Ryan? Is it Jeb Bush? Marco Rubio? Are we going to get sensible immigration reform from a Republican administration? Because I'm all for that. I assume the country has gotten more welcoming and accepting of diversity."

[MidwestPollster]

I think I’d be the one inspecting a bunker.

[morgieb]

Upon being told that Donald Trump was president, you have have a stroke and immediately lapse back into a coma.

"Does Donald Trump still have that stupid show?"

"No, he's now the President"

"GOOD NIGHT!" *heartbeat flatlines*

[pbrower2a]

I would be astounded. We have had three consecutive two-term Presidents and a pattern of an alternation between Parties of the President. So a Republican follows Obama (Romney? Certainly not so big a flop as Trump!) and seems headed toward defeat? What could be happening!

[Senator Spark]

Still Lean R incumbent.

[Ferguson97]

Still Lean R incumbent.

With those unemployment numbers?