Mid May 2020- Handicap the race: Trump vs. Biden

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean Biden. Closer to Likely than Tilt.

Trump is in a worse position than at the beginning of the year, where I already considered him an underdog. Could he win 270 EVs somehow? Yup. But it's not very likely. He's never had strong approvals, didn't expand his coalition over the last 4 years and now the economy is in a freefall, which was already the only argument he could have made for reelection. Instead, he has missmanaged Covid19 big league and led an admin plagued with one scandal after another. Biden is favored to win a modest victory at least. Him winning by 2008 margins is now more likely than Trump winning the EC at all. Zero chance Trump wins the NPV.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Lean Biden. Closer to Likely than Tilt.

This, I'd say Biden gets 319 now (GA and NC are on a knifes edge) and a 5+ PV victory, but the race is pretty volatile and Biden's 8 point polling advantage will be cut down in the last 6-8 weeks of the campaign.

[here2view]

Lean Biden.

I think Trump could be really hurt in the fall if coronavirus has a second wind during the typical flu season.

[QAnonKelly]

Lean Biden for now. Few months ago I’d have said tilt Trump

[Skill and Chance]

Tilt Biden.  Polls are less of a landslide loss for Trump than I expected right now and it's more likely than not the state of the country improves from here.  I think it will be close again, but Biden probably is a better fit for the EC than Clinton.