Can Doug Jones win re-election?

[HarrisonL]

Yeah no. He won't win re-election in a Presidential year with Trump at the top of Alabama's ticket, regardless of how much money he raises.

[Suburbia]

Sadly, no. Jones should be AG.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is the only race I'll say this for an incumbent: No, there's nothing he can do. His 2017 special election was a fluke (a real one) of the highest order, just like the 2010 Massachusetts race (except even more so). People saying this has a chance of being competitive are going to look very silly in November.

[skbl17]

The GOP would need to screw up really, really, really badly, because Doug Jones can't win reelection on his own. A big part of the reason for his 2017 upset was the turnout differential between the Black Belt and the string of counties between Marion and Cleburne, not to mention the personal distaste for Roy Moore among suburban Republicans in places like Shelby County.

Sessions and Tuberville are nothing like Roy Moore, plus 2020 is a presidential year, so the turnout disparity won't exist. Actually, the latter would have doomed Jones anyway, even if Roy Moore was the nominee.

Even a Tuberville write-in campaign (if he lost the primary runoff) wouldn't save Jones unless Trump personally stumped for him, cut ads for him, mentioned him every other tweet, and basically pretended Sessions didn't exist. Even then, you'd have to bet on Alabama Republicans liking Trump a lot more than the Senate GOP; if so, then Jones would have a chance, but if not, the only thing that results in is Sessions' margin of victory being around 13 points instead of 20.

Personally, I think Jones will do a bit better than "generic Dem" in Alabama, but that's splitting hairs, as generic Alabama Dem loses by 20 points, while I think Jones loses by anywhere from 12 to 15 points.