More likely to vote Democratic: Missouri or Kansas?

[Greedo punched first]

Which state is now more likely to vote Democratic?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Neither, but Kansas: cheaper to campaign in, and a much better fit for the Democrats' current coalition.

[Greedo punched first]

Kansas seems to lean slightly less Republican than Missouri.

[walleye26]

KS because MO is more “southern” and isn’t seeing as much of a Hispanic population increase. KS is also more educated.

[Lechasseur]

Kansas

But frankly I don't see either of them voting Democratic anytime soon

[Greedo punched first]

Trends favor Kansas. Kansas is more likely to elect more statewide Democrats before it flips at the presidential level.

[MarkD]

You haven't said vote Democratic for which office.

The answer is obviously Missouri. It has a larger Democratic base in its two largest cities. It has voted Democratic for President far more often than Kansas has, most recently in the 1990's. It has elected Democrats to the US Senate in the last 80 years, Kansas hasn't. It currently has two congressional districts that have consistently elected Democrats to the House for decades; Kansas doesn't have one that has been so consistent, it's House delegation has often been all Republican, even in the recent past. It has elected Democrats to the Governship, to Sec. of State, to Treasurer, and to AG all at the same time twice in the last twelve years. So even in terms of RECENT TRENDS, there is still more potential for Missouri to vote Democratic than Kansas.

[Greedo punched first]

You haven't said vote Democratic for which office.

The answer is obviously Missouri. It has a larger Democratic base in its two largest cities. It has voted Democratic for President far more often than Kansas has, most recently in the 1990's. It has elected Democrats to the US Senate in the last 80 years, Kansas hasn't. It currently has two congressional districts that have consistently elected Democrats to the House for decades; Kansas doesn't have one that has been so consistent, it's House delegation has often been all Republican, even in the recent past. It has elected Democrats to the Governship, to Sec. of State, to Treasurer, and to AG all at the same time twice in the last twelve years. So even in terms of RECENT TRENDS, there is still more potential for Missouri to vote Democratic than Kansas.

After redistricting, Cleaver’s district will likely be cracked and turned Republican. MO-SEN 2022 is safe R.

[Brittain33]

Which state is more likely to vote Republican: Massachusetts or Rhode Island?

The answer is that in a world where it's possible to imagine one voting Republican, so much else that we know about these states and the political environment would have to be different that we couldn't project from what we already know. 

[S019]

KS, simply because trends there are more favorable, but neither will flip for President

[Greedo punched first]

KS, simply because trends there are more favorable, but neither will flip for President

What about Senate? Kansas seems more likely. How did Kansas become less Republican than Missouri? Who has a better chance of becoming a Senator, Nicole Galloway or Carl Brewer?

[Tekken_Guy]

KS, simply because trends there are more favorable, but neither will flip for President

What about Senate? Kansas seems more likely. How did Kansas become less Republican than Missouri? Who has a better chance of becoming a Senator, Nicole Galloway or Carl Brewer?

Galloway, as she's a higher profile figure in her state. If she wins the governorship she'll run for Senate in 2028.

Davids, on the other hand, would probably win a Senate race before Galloway.

[Lechasseur]

Which state is more likely to vote Republican: Massachusetts or Rhode Island?

The answer is that in a world where it's possible to imagine one voting Republican, so much else that we know about these states and the political environment would have to be different that we couldn't project from what we already know. 

Out of those two it would be Rhode Island

[Lechasseur]

Also, at this point I don't think it's just Kansas is more likely than Missouri to vote Democratic for president, I think Kansas is also more likely to vote Democratic downballot.

The last couple of years I think are pretty much the first time in history where either has been the case.