Rate the Senate

[Xing]

Tilt/Lean D. While there are definitely enough competitive seats left on the table for Republicans to win, it’s getting to the point where they need to run the table or come close to it in order to keep their majority. I’d say the best case scenario for Republicans is a 52/48 split, while the Senate could end up as Democratic as 55/45 or even 56/44 if Democrats have a lot of luck.

[MillennialModerate]

Tilt GOP (Thanks Cal)

[Roll Roons]

Tilt to Lean D. They seem poised to sweep the big four (Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina), and a Biden victory would make Kamala the tiebreaker. Though I'd also like to know how much of an impact the Cunningham scandal had, if any.

Given the national environment, I think Democrats will probably win at least one, if not more, of Alaska, Georgia (regular and special), Iowa, Kansas, Montana and South Carolina, though we need more polling from all of these states.

[rhg2052]

Lean D.

D->R
Alabama

R->D
Arizona
Colorado
North Carolina
Maine
Iowa
South Carolina

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m not confident at all in a Democratic Senate. This is coming from the loony tune expecting Biden to win TX by 1 fwiw

[MarkD]

There is certainly a possibility of a 50-50 tie in the Senate, and that Vice President Kamala Harris will be the tie-breaker, like Dick Cheney was for about four months in 2001, before Jim Jeffords switched parties.

[MillennialModerate]

With that Peters poll and Cal sinking. I think a Democratic senate is unlikely at this point and that virtually eliminates a reasonable chance for a Democratic trifecta for a LONG LONG time.

Which puts badly needed change in jeopardy but we can’t do much about it in our current system.

Alabama: Safe Republican *FLIP*
Arizona: Likely Democratic *FLIP*
Colorado: Likely Democratic *FLIP*
Georgia: Likely Republican
Georgia Special: Safe Republican
Iowa: Tilt Republican
Maine: Tilt Democratic *FLIP*
Michigan: TRUE Tossup
Montana: Lean Republican
North Carolina: Tilt Republican
South Carolina: Likely Republican
Texas: Safe Republican

This puts 51/49 the most likely outcome.

I know I’ll be ripped for this but it is what it is at this point

[ProgressiveModerate]

With that Peters poll and Cal sinking. I think a Democratic senate is unlikely at this point and
 that virtually eliminates a reasonable chance for a Democratic trifecta for a LONG LONG time.

Which puts badly needed change in jeopardy but we can’t do much about it in our current system.

Alabama: Safe Republican *FLIP*
Arizona: Likely Democratic *FLIP*
Colorado: Likely Democratic *FLIP*
Georgia: Likely Republican
Georgia Special: Safe Republican
Iowa: Tilt Republican [/color]
Maine: Tilt Democratic *FLIP*
Michigan: TRUE Tossup
Montana: Lean Republican
North Carolina: Tilt Republican
South Carolina: Likely Republican
Texas: Safe Republican

This puts 51/49 the most likely outcome.

I know I’ll be ripped for this but it is what it is at this point

This is prolly a bit pessimistic. A D senate isn't guarenteed, but by no means are they bound to lose the senate. Based on polling alone, Democrats lead(or have a presumed lead in the case of RI) in seats that would get them to 51, meaning they have a 1 seat buffer for polls to be off, and polls could very underestimate Ds. Not to mention it is statistically more likely than not they win at least one of MT, KS, AK, SC, GA, and GA(S) in my model, even though they are underdogs in each individual race. I tend to believe being a pure optimist or pessimistic with these sorts of things is what leads to flawed predictions, but you do you.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tossup.

[Canis]

I have it as a pure tossup if I had to say Tilt D