Rate Prince Edward County, VA

[Woody]

2016: Clinton 50.2% - Trump 44.9%
2012: Obama 55.6% - Romney 42.6%
2008: Obama 54.3% - McCain 44.5
2004: Kerry 49.6% - Bush 48.8%
2000: Bush 50.5% - Gore 45.9%

[Tintrlvr]

Safe D. If it didn't flip in 2016, it's not going to flip this year. It's also a pretty resilient combination of college county with a significant black population. Bush won it in 2000 only because the age gap was nearly non-existent back then. That obviously won't be the case this time around.

[brucejoel99]

Very safe D.

[Senator Spark]

Between Lean and Likely D.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Likely D.

[here2view]

Safe D

[MT Treasurer]

Biden is going to win VA by at least 8%, which will be more than enough to win this county, even if it trends slightly Republican again. Safe D.

[heatcharger]

Longwood University has a rather small student body and subsequently little influence on the surrounding economy. There is a black population here but I suspect it’s dwindling.

Anyway, the county voted about 9 points to the left of the state in 2012, roughly even in 2016, 6 points to the right in 2017, and 4 points to the right in 2018. Wouldn’t be that surprised if Trump comes out ahead here in all honesty, but I would guess Biden wins here 51-48 or so.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Lean D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[Frenchrepublican]

This county is trending to the right pretty fast (Stewart did better than Romney), now I guess that the progressive base (white progressives + black folks) is pretty inflexible and still large enough to make sure that Trump doesn't carry it, I would say Likely D with Biden (51/47 for Biden) and Lean D otherwise (50/48 for dems), in other words it should be relatively close but the last few points will be hard to grab for Trump

[😥]

Very safe D.

[Tintrlvr]

This county is trending to the right pretty fast (Stewart did better than Romney), now I guess that the progressive base (white progressives + black folks) is pretty inflexible and still large enough to make sure that Trump doesn't carry it, I would say Likely D with Biden (51/47 for Biden) and Lean D otherwise (50/48 for dems), in other words it should be relatively close but the last few points will be hard to grab for Trump

Stewart did better than Romney because black turnout (especially rural black turnout) falls off in off-years, and also fell off when Obama left the scene. Neither is a factor when looking at 2016-2020 changes.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm too lazy to make a Farmville joke.

Safe D.

[538Electoral]

Strong Lean D. I wouldn't count Trump out in the county if he does a few points better nationally, But in a close election it's not likely to flip.

[SN2903]

Lean D

[ElectionsGuy]

I voted Safe D on accident because I mixed it up with Prince William County but then I realized what county it was and wow, still this many people think it's Safe D? I would say Lean D. Is there any county in the entire country where Trump's ceiling isn't his 2016 result? Like seriously what absurdity.

[Tintrlvr]

Longwood University has a rather small student body and subsequently little influence on the surrounding economy. There is a black population here but I suspect it’s dwindling.

Anyway, the county voted about 9 points to the left of the state in 2012, roughly even in 2016, 6 points to the right in 2017, and 4 points to the right in 2018. Wouldn’t be that surprised if Trump comes out ahead here in all honesty, but I would guess Biden wins here 51-48 or so.

Longwood has 5,000 students. The whole county has only 23,000 people, including the students. That’s a huge influence on the economy, and on voting patterns.

[heatcharger]

Longwood University has a rather small student body and subsequently little influence on the surrounding economy. There is a black population here but I suspect it’s dwindling.

Anyway, the county voted about 9 points to the left of the state in 2012, roughly even in 2016, 6 points to the right in 2017, and 4 points to the right in 2018. Wouldn’t be that surprised if Trump comes out ahead here in all honesty, but I would guess Biden wins here 51-48 or so.

Longwood has 5,000 students. The whole county has only 23,000 people, including the students. That’s a huge influence on the economy, and on voting patterns.

I'm skeptical of this, because first of all, students hardly vote, and second of all, many of them don't live permanently in Prince Edward County. Only about an eighth of them are postgraduate students. The number of Longwood employees in Prince Edward County is only in the triple digits. By nature of being a small liberal arts school it doesn't employ as many to do research as public research universities would.

It only recently became a university all things considered, so maybe it's influence will grow (especially with crowding issues at state flagships), which I suppose is good news for Democrats. But for now I don't see it having the same relationship with its county's economy and voting behavior as bigger schools do.

[Politician]

Likely D, but if this county was in, say, Ohio, nobody would call it Safe D. It literally trended R in 2016 and 2018. It's "trending D" in the same way Nevada "is".