Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: Illinois
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  Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: Illinois		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Who will win the Illinois Democratic Primary?
#1
Joe Biden		  
#2
Pete Buttigieg		  
#3
Kamala Harris		  
#4
Bernie Sanders		  
#5
Elizabeth Warren		  
#6
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 74

Author Topic: Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: Illinois  (Read 1096 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: October 22, 2019, 10:49:59 AM »




Biden
Sanders
Warren

Vote here in the previous polls if you haven't already!

February
IA NH NV SC

Super Tuesday
AL AS AR CA CO DA ME MA MN NC OK TN TX UT VT VA

March 10th
ID MI MS MO ND WA

Later March
NMI AZ FL

Michigan is still very close, and Arizona is somewhat close as well.

Special thanks to Hades for the map of the territories!

Illinois could be one of the most important states after Super Tuesday. I'd probably give a slight edge to Biden, but Warren will want to at least come close here, if not win outright. I do think she'll do better among black voters in Chicago than in the South, and the suburbs could be a strong area for her.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2019, 12:33:43 PM »
Biden has reclaimed the frontrunner status; as a result of; Ukraine scandal fizzling
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The Free North
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2019, 12:44:10 PM »
Didnt see an option for Yang?
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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2019, 01:20:43 PM »

Other, he isn't a major candidate
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2019, 01:48:15 PM »

I'm only including the top 5 candidates right now (in terms of polling.) If you think Yang will win Illinois, vote "other."
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JGibson
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2019, 03:13:00 PM »
Warren.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2019, 06:31:54 PM »
Biden, just barely, due entirely to Obama nostalgia.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2019, 07:21:30 PM »
Sanders almost won here in 2016 and the dialogue has only shifted left since - particularly in Chicago and the suburbs.

Warren wins
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UWS
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2019, 09:01:40 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on October 22, 2019, 06:31:54 PM
Biden, just barely, due entirely to Obama nostalgia.
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Gracile
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2019, 09:10:52 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Illini on October 22, 2019, 07:21:30 PM
Sanders almost won here in 2016 and the dialogue has only shifted left since - particularly in Chicago and the suburbs.

Warren wins

I agree with this. If it is a Warren vs. Biden matchup after Super Tuesday, then I think Warren would have the slight edge in Illinois if she can consolidate Sanders' coalition + get some of the soft Clinton supporters on her side (which I don't think will be that hard given what I've seen on the ground).

Also, the Obama connection really doesn't mean as much as some people think.
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andjey
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2019, 11:29:35 PM »
Joe Biden
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2019, 05:47:51 AM »
Right now, tilt Warren. Large black population but at the same time probably too many white suburbanites for Biden to overcome given most of the D electorate (~80%) will be in the Chicago metropolitan area).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2019, 06:13:03 AM »
Safe Joe Biden, Obama effect
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Illini Moderate
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2019, 10:20:02 AM »
if it were held today, it would be Biden. Minority turnout for him in Chicago plus suburban and labor union support would put him slightly over Warren.
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