Could the bursting of the housing bubble bring Bush's approval to the 20s?

[phk]

Could the bursting of the housing bubble bring Bush's approval to the 20s?

[opebo]

Very high twenties, perhaps.  People will get very scared if their houses go down - it is the last domino in the demise of the middle-class to fall. 

However I personally don't think they will fall enough in the dormant states that are Bush's heartland to make that much of a difference.  Most of the bubble-bursting will be, like the bubble itself, in the economically more important states, which are of course mostly Kerry states.

[afleitch]

I doubt it. There is no way Bush will fall below 30% barring armageddon. As in all presidencies there is always a hard core base who support them no matter what they do or what happens to the country.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hell if it's bad enough, we might as well start calling him "Bush Taft"

[Blue Rectangle]

However I personally don't think they will fall enough in the dormant states that are Bush's heartland to make that much of a difference.  Most of the bubble-bursting will be, like the bubble itself, in the economically more important states, which are of course mostly Kerry states.

Wow, we agree on something!

Also, there has been more than enough press on this issue already.  That pretty much precludes a rapid, surprise bursting of the bubble.

[opebo]

However I personally don't think they will fall enough in the dormant states that are Bush's heartland to make that much of a difference.  Most of the bubble-bursting will be, like the bubble itself, in the economically more important states, which are of course mostly Kerry states.

Wow, we agree on something!

Also, there has been more than enough press on this issue already.  That pretty much precludes a rapid, surprise bursting of the bubble.

I would say that it might have a little effect in certain states, and Colorado would be high on my list.  Things have been pretty bubbley there, haven't they Blue Recta.?

[Blue Rectangle]

However I personally don't think they will fall enough in the dormant states that are Bush's heartland to make that much of a difference.  Most of the bubble-bursting will be, like the bubble itself, in the economically more important states, which are of course mostly Kerry states.

Wow, we agree on something!

Also, there has been more than enough press on this issue already.  That pretty much precludes a rapid, surprise bursting of the bubble.

I would say that it might have a little effect in certain states, and Colorado would be high on my list.  Things have been pretty bubbley there, haven't they Blue Recta.?

It's talked about a lot, but you have to consider the cause.  We still have a lot of incoming workers and a growing economy.  Many of the new arrivals are high-tech workers from California (especially in Colorado Springs).  If you just sold your tiny, two-bedroom house in San Jose for $350k, you're in for some serious reverse sticker shock when you get to Colorado.  Depending on how long you owned that house in CA, you might be able to pay cash for a similar home here.  Houses are filling as fast as they are being built, and companies are hiring.  Property values are going up as a result, but that doesn't mean that there is a "bubble".

California, on the other hand, is in big trouble.

[opebo]

It's talked about a lot, but you have to consider the cause.  We still have a lot of incoming workers and a growing economy.  Many of the new arrivals are high-tech workers from California (especially in Colorado Springs).  If you just sold your tiny, two-bedroom house in San Jose for $350k, you're in for some serious reverse sticker shock when you get to Colorado.  Depending on how long you owned that house in CA, you might be able to pay cash for a similar home here.  Houses are filling as fast as they are being built, and companies are hiring.  Property values are going up as a result, but that doesn't mean that there is a "bubble".

That's very interesting.  What is the price of a typical house there?  And what is the median salary?

[TeePee4Prez]

POP damn you! POP!

[ATFFL]

POP damn you! POP!

Wow.  So you actually wish ill on the country for the political benefit of your party?

Unfortunately for you and fortunately for the country, it is not popping but slowly winding down.  Why?  Simple, it was never a real bubble.

[TeePee4Prez]

POP damn you! POP!

Wow.  So you actually wish ill on the country for the political benefit of your party?

Unfortunately for you and fortunately for the country, it is not popping but slowly winding down.  Why?  Simple, it was never a real bubble.

Has nothing to do with partisanship, but more personal.  I'm 25, building cash equity, living with parents, and priced out of the market with a half decent job.

[ATFFL]

POP damn you! POP!

Wow.  So you actually wish ill on the country for the political benefit of your party?

Unfortunately for you and fortunately for the country, it is not popping but slowly winding down.  Why?  Simple, it was never a real bubble.

Has nothing to do with partisanship, but more personal.  I'm 25, building cash equity, living with parents, and priced out of the market with a half decent job.

Ahh, that I can understand.  Bad news for you is that your market is expensive even if things come down to earth.

[afleitch]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4454738.stm

Door thwarts quick exit for Bush 
 
President George W Bush tried to make a quick exit from a news conference in Beijing on Sunday - only to find himself thwarted by locked doors.

He he

[Alcon]

POP damn you! POP!

Wow.  So you actually wish ill on the country for the political benefit of your party?

Unfortunately for you and fortunately for the country, it is not popping but slowly winding down.  Why?  Simple, it was never a real bubble.

Has nothing to do with partisanship, but more personal.  I'm 25, building cash equity, living with parents, and priced out of the market with a half decent job.

Ahh, that I can understand.  Bad news for you is that your market is expensive even if things come down to earth.

To be fair to Flyers, it's better that it pops sooner than later if it is a bubble, which I think it rather clearly is.  The longer we sustain ourselves based on factitious economics, the worse off we're going to be.

[Beet]

The funny thing, the NAR affordability index has not been at historic lows until at least very recently. Also, just because prices skyrocket it doesn't mean there is a bubble. The DJIA went from 3000 in 1992 to 10500 in 2000, and is still at 10500. So anyone waiting circa 1998 for the "bubble" to pop so prices to come down would still be waiting today.

[Smash255]

He could possibly go down to the 20's, but the housing bubble will have little to do with it (though could be the difference between low 30's & upper 20's).  But when you look at the areas that are most likely to be most vulnerable to a bubble burst outside of a handful of areas (parts of the Denver burbs, LA burbs especially Orange & portions of AZ & FLA) most are the areas that could be most impacted by a bubble burst are areas that are Dem & Bush's #'s are real bad already (NYC area, Boston area, SF area, Seattle area, other parts of the Denver metro & portions of FLA as well) so because in so many of these areas Bush's #'s are already so bad any impact on his #'s will be small.  Now if the bubble bursts is more a nationwide spread then the impact on his #'s can be even more. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The housing bubble is clearly caused by people not trusting the market after Enron and Worldcom, and Bush's failure to do anything regulating their asses.

The NASDAQ and S&P 500 are both down under the 58 months of the Bush adminstration. The Dow is only slightly up. That's pathetic. Instead houses are absurdly expensive. The average house around here is getting pretty close to an even $1 million. At the CA minimum wage fulltime, something like 600% of your wages would have to go to the mortgage.

When Bush took office:
Dow: 10,587.59
NASDAQ: 2,770.42
S&P 500: 1,342.55

Now:
Dow: 10,766.33
NASDAQ: 2,227.07
S&P: 1,248.27

[phk]

It will take another 85 years to hit 5,000.

[MODU]

Not a chance.  First of all, those effected will primarily be those within the city and overpriced markets (since the bubble is a regional, not national, event).  Secondly, while we have falling prices in some markets, we actually have rising prices in others as businesses and people move away from the cities/overpriced zones.  Unlike the tech bubble collapse, which caused a lot of people to lose their jobs, companies shut down, and the market to nose dive, the housing bubble "pop" won't have that kind of effect.

[Democratic Hawk]

I think Bush is always going to have, roughly, the support of one third of the electorate

Dave