First county to flip Democratic
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 01, 2024, 02:01:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  First county to flip Democratic 		« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: The counties below are all Republican leaning, but moving left. Which votes blue first and why?
#1
Hamilton County, IN
#2
Washington, AR
#3
Oklahoma, OK
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Author Topic: First county to flip Democratic  (Read 1115 times)
walleye26
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,442


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 14, 2020, 04:36:07 PM »
Thoughts?
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,341
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2020, 05:24:20 PM »
Oklahoma, OK, followed by Washington, AR. Hamilton, IN will tighten, but it’s not flipping this year.
Logged
Tartarus Sauce
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,363
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2020, 05:25:37 PM »
Oklahoma County, easily. It was the only one of the three actually won by Democrats in the 2018 midterms, in both the house race and the gubernatorial.
Logged
Yellowhammer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,695
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2020, 05:32:28 PM »
none of these will flip
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2020, 07:28:01 PM »
All 3 could flip. Bookmark it.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,919
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2020, 07:53:23 PM »

Not this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if Oklahoma County votes Democratic by the end of the decade.
Logged
Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,124
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2020, 07:57:17 PM »
I think Oklahoma County could vote Biden this year.
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,611
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2020, 08:00:05 PM »
Out of these?  Oklahoma.

Hamilton's not quite ready to flip just yet.  It still has a sizable rural population in the northern part of the county.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,919
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2020, 08:02:42 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on May 14, 2020, 07:57:17 PM
I think Oklahoma County could vote Biden this year.

If Biden were to win by high single digits to low double digits (which he may), then it's conceivable. He would definitely have a gap to make up, as Trump still won the county by 10% last time around. I think it's more likely that he holds Trump to a plurality win.
Logged
clever but short
andy
Rookie
**
Posts: 155
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2020, 08:10:54 PM »
Oklahoma>Washington>>>>Hamilton
Logged
Devils30
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,124
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2020, 08:11:59 PM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on May 14, 2020, 08:02:42 PM
Quote from: Devils30 on May 14, 2020, 07:57:17 PM
I think Oklahoma County could vote Biden this year.

If Biden were to win by high single digits to low double digits (which he may), then it's conceivable. He would definitely have a gap to make up, as Trump still won the county by 10% last time around. I think it's more likely that he holds Trump to a plurality win.

I could see the county trending 5-10% to the left so he may be able to win it at like 6% nationally.
Logged
Esteemed Jimmy
Jimmy7812
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,408
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.47, S: -1.05

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2020, 08:25:56 PM »
Oklahoma
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,805
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2020, 08:28:24 PM »

Even if they don't this year (and I genuinely think Oklahoma could based on 2018), that doesn't mean they will never flip. They all have decent odds within the next few elections, especially Oklahoma and Washington.
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,919
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2020, 10:03:54 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on May 14, 2020, 08:11:59 PM
Quote from: Calthrina950 on May 14, 2020, 08:02:42 PM
Quote from: Devils30 on May 14, 2020, 07:57:17 PM
I think Oklahoma County could vote Biden this year.

If Biden were to win by high single digits to low double digits (which he may), then it's conceivable. He would definitely have a gap to make up, as Trump still won the county by 10% last time around. I think it's more likely that he holds Trump to a plurality win.

I could see the county trending 5-10% to the left so he may be able to win it at like 6% nationally.

Again, I'm not discounting it entirely, but I still think that Trump will hold it. Biden will certainly do better than Hillary Clinton there, and that may be enough to allow Kendra Horn to win reelection.
Logged
Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,358
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 14, 2020, 10:38:26 PM »
OK Ok, because it is home to the biggest city of them all. I in all honesty doubt that Hamilton will ever fully flip at the Presidential level (not counting rare waves) -- I think it'll become a marginal county, but it's too exurban to flip to being the next Ventura or something.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,490
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2020, 12:58:49 AM »
This but unironically
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2020, 09:45:17 AM »
Wasn't ironic
Logged
Roronoa D. Law
Patrick97
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,512
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 15, 2020, 12:26:57 PM »
I think there is a good chance Oklahoma county flip this year.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.251 seconds with 11 queries.