Who Should be more nervous about the midterms right now?

[The Mikado]

^conveniently ignoring the fact that the Dems best case scenario is D+1 and the worst case scenario is R+5

D+1 net on an evening where there are only 9 GOP Senate seats up for grabs compared to 26 D seats would be a f**king miracle.

[Badger]

Republicans about the House and Governors; Democrats about the Senate.

So, essentially...

Both sides™

This. With the caveat that a "disappointing night" for Democrats in the Senate means a gain of 0-1 seats depending on Missouri. It'll still be "disappointing" as, short of McCaskell AND Heitkamp (there's the big one) pulling it out, Republicans will still narrowly control the Senate.

(Though there's always hope in case of a 50-50 split that Murkowski tells Mitch to go to hell).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

^conveniently ignoring the fact that the Dems best case scenario is D+1 and the worst case scenario is R+5

The 538 model gives Dems only about a 20% chance of Senate take-over, but thinks D+4 is equally probable to R+5 (both ~3%).

[The Mikado]

^conveniently ignoring the fact that the Dems best case scenario is D+1 and the worst case scenario is R+5

D+1 net on an evening where there are only 9 GOP Senate seats up for grabs compared to 26 D seats would be a f**king miracle.

Indeed. Whereas going R+5 would make it damn near impossible to win the Sneate anytime soon

Yeah. My point was that a 50-50 Senate situation where Heitkamp is the only Dem to go down but both Sinema and Rosen wins is something the Dems should (rightly) treat as a victory even though the GOP holds the Senate.

And, yes, failure to take either NV or AZ (or both!) would count as a disastrous night for the Dems, especially if coupled with losses in MO, IN, or FL (the only Dem seats other than ND I think are in any real danger).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The midterm is hard to predict. Trump has historical lows and hasn't doneanything as president but voters are weary about tax increases.

I would predict a GOP wave, but Dems have a 9point lead on ballot

[IceSpear]

Republicans obviously, considering their best case scenario is gaining a few Senate seats, holding the House by the skin of their teeth, and taking only a slight beating in the gubernatorial/state legislative races.

[Zaybay]

I cannot believe this question is being asked, as the answer is so obvious.

The party that should worry is the one who is likely to lose the house, around 10 governorships, and somehow turned a impossible majority in the senate to break into a likely majority to be held by the skin of their teeth, and has lost a record amount of special election seats.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Both sides. I’m thinking we’re gonna have a lot of races decided by <2%

[ElectionsGuy]

The whole "Democrats should be nervous because of the Senate" narrative is absurd.  Even on a "bad night", the Democrats win two-thirds of the Senate seats up for elections this year.  Whereas a "bad night" for Republicans likely results in the worst performance either party has had in a Senate cycle since the 1930s.  

That Dems right now have more than a 5% chance to take control of the Senate this year was only made possible by a series of colossal blunders by other side over the course of the last two years. Trying to spin the fact the the GOP might hold on to seats in North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas into a loss for the Democrats is embarrassing.

Agreed. The only reason Democrats had a chance in the Senate was because Republicans nominated Roy Moore in Alabama. To this day its still amazing to think about how the Republicans lost a federal race in Alabama.

Not to mention, all of their bad candidates in 2010/2012 that when accumulated probably cost them 4-6 seats.

[Wisconsin+17]

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538 is broken if it thinks that.

R+5 would be TX, TN, ND,

And four of MT, FL, MO, IN, AZ, NV

(1,2,3,4), (1,2,3,5), (1,2,3,6), (1,2,4,5), (1,2,4,6), (1,3,4,5) (1,4,5,6), (2,3,4,5) (3,4,5,6),

I have Rs up in AZ, MO, NV, and in FL, tossup in MT and IN.

0.55 exp 3 * 0.5 exp  2 = 4 percent to win all 5, which would be R+6.

To win four of these would be around 8 percent. As there are 8 separate permutations, that's 64 percent. GOP are odds-on favorite to win R+5.

D+4 would be all five of these breaking Democrat, which would be about 2 percent, plus TX (about 10 percent, plus TN, about 8 percent and ND about 2 percent, plus MS at about 2 percent.

That is 3.6x10 exp -6 percent, for D+4.

Anybody else want to take me up on the bet that R+5 is equally as likely as D+4?

With these implied odds, D+2, is less than a percent.

[Mechavada]

Both sides are a little bit too overconfident about their chances but right now I would say Republicans just because they actually do have more to lose right now.  Losing either house would dramatically change Trump's ability to pass his platform.

There might be pressure for Dems to win the House, but close enough "defeat" (just a few house seats short) isn't the end of the world and might still be enough of a difference if working with anti-Trump Republicans.

And yeah I realize theres a possibility of losing several net Senate seats, but IIRC there shouldn't be so many as to make winning the Senate in 2020 or 2022 that much harder.

[SuperCow]

Libertarians for sure. It's looking like they might not win a single seat this cycle! Not looking too good for the Green party either.

[ShamDam]

The Democrats should be more nervous because the Supreme Court is the single most important issue these next two years, and they're not gonna take the Senate.

[J. J.]

House Democrats.  The problem is that they have pushed up expectations way too much.    Even taking the House will be seen as a defeat if they don't win it by a large margin.  218 to 225 would be regarded as a defeat.

I think they will break 225, but there is an increasing chance they won't. 

In 2016, the Democrats did okay in the House; they gained 6 seats.  In a year where their presidential candidate loses the election, that is pretty darn good.  However, they were expecting a landslide, and were talking about taking back the House.

If the "blue wave" isn't as high as expected, it will be seen as a loss.

[The Vorlon]

It's an expectations game... anything short of the utter obliteration of the GOP is a defeat for the Dems...

If the GOP holds the Senate, Trump will declare Victory....

If the GOP holds the House there will be mass suicides.....

But seriously.....

There is the scenario where the polls, across the board, have some large systemic problem.  I don’t see that happening.  There is too much diversity of firms and methodology for EVERYBODY to screw it up….

The range of outcomes is a bit broader than the polls would suggest, however.

Most years the polls are, as a group, out by 2 or 3 points, you just never know in which direction :-)

If the Dems are under polling by 2-3 points the Senate gets very interesting.  50/50 would be a real possibility.

If the GOP is under polling by 2-3 points the Senate going 54/46 is plausible, which would be seen as a Big GOP win.

On the House side, I think if the polls are right the Dems take control and have a net pick up of 35 (ish)

If the Dems are 2-3 points under polling a pick up of 50-60 is doable, if the GOP is under polling by 2-3 % the House is very, very close.

The House for the GOP is more or less where Trump was in 2016 polling wise…..  “probably” a Dem takeover, but the GOP holding the House would be a surprise, but not a shock…..

(PS – The polls in 2016 were fine… it was the "expert" analysts that were the idiots)

[Doimper]

It's an expectations game... anything short of the utter obliteration of the GOP is a defeat for the Dems...

If the GOP holds the Senate, Trump will declare Victory....

If the GOP holds the House thee will be mass suicides.....

But seriously.....

There is the scenario where the polls, across the board, have some systemic problem.  I don’t see that happening.  There is too much diversity of firms and methodology for EVERYBODY to screw it up….

The range of outcomes is a bit broader than the polls would suggest, however.

Most years the polls are, as a group, out by 2 or 3 points, you just never know in which direction :-)
If the Dems are under polling by 2-3 points the Senate gets very interesting.  50/50 would be a real possibility.

If the GOP is under polling by 2-3 points the Senate going 54/46 is plausible, which would be seen as a Big GOP win.

On the House side, I think if the polls are right the Dems take control and have a net pick up of 35 (ish)

If the Dems are 2-3 points under polling a pick up of 50-60 is doable, if the GOP is under polling by 2-3 % the House is very, very close.

The House for the GOP is more or less where Trump was in 2016 polling wise…..  “probably” a Dem takeover, but the GOP holding the House would be a surprise, but not a shock…..

(PS – The polls in 2016 were fine… it was the "expert" analysts that were the idiots)

You're acting like the opinion of cable hosts is what's at stake here. If Democrats barely take the House then of course there will be lots of tutting from Jake Tapper, but who cares? The power of subpoena is what's important.

[Mr. Smith]

^conveniently ignoring the fact that the Dems best case scenario is D+1 and the worst case scenario is R+5

Nah, it could plausibly be D+2, and even D+3 isn't completely off the table. D+1 is just the most probable outcome.

[Person Man]

It's an expectations game... anything short of the utter obliteration of the GOP is a defeat for the Dems...

If the GOP holds the Senate, Trump will declare Victory....

If the GOP holds the House thee will be mass suicides.....

But seriously.....

There is the scenario where the polls, across the board, have some systemic problem.  I don’t see that happening.  There is too much diversity of firms and methodology for EVERYBODY to screw it up….

The range of outcomes is a bit broader than the polls would suggest, however.

Most years the polls are, as a group, out by 2 or 3 points, you just never know in which direction :-)
If the Dems are under polling by 2-3 points the Senate gets very interesting.  50/50 would be a real possibility.

If the GOP is under polling by 2-3 points the Senate going 54/46 is plausible, which would be seen as a Big GOP win.

On the House side, I think if the polls are right the Dems take control and have a net pick up of 35 (ish)

If the Dems are 2-3 points under polling a pick up of 50-60 is doable, if the GOP is under polling by 2-3 % the House is very, very close.

The House for the GOP is more or less where Trump was in 2016 polling wise…..  “probably” a Dem takeover, but the GOP holding the House would be a surprise, but not a shock…..

(PS – The polls in 2016 were fine… it was the "expert" analysts that were the idiots)

House Democrats.  The problem is that they have pushed up expectations way too much.    Even taking the House will be seen as a defeat if they don't win it by a large margin.  218 to 225 would be regarded as a defeat.

I think they will break 225, but there is an increasing chance they won't. 

In 2016, the Democrats did okay in the House; they gained 6 seats.  In a year where their presidential candidate loses the election, that is pretty darn good.  However, they were expecting a landslide, and were talking about taking back the House.

If the "blue wave" isn't as high as expected, it will be seen as a loss.

I agree with both of these things.

If Democrats under-perform at the MoE, they are looking at either losing the house by 3 or 4 votes, or winning it by 3 or 4 votes. They probably lose ND,MO and MAYBE IN and FL in the senate. Anything that takes them back to where they were before Trump was elected in the senate and doesn't get them in the house will be seen as a "mandate" pure and simple and should really push Democrats to shake the etch and sketch and just focus on trying to win SOMETHING in 2020 and 2022. If they can't even then, I see a lot of people going their own way as many will begin to see that Democratic Party doesn't have enough votes to win national elections anymore.

What I am expecting to happen is a mediocre anti-incumbent swell or small wave that will net Dems about 226-235 in the Senate and 47 to 49 in the House. Even on a decent night, they might get shot out in the senate but only suffer obvious loses. I think either they will pick up one, but not both possible seats in the Senate and probably suffer the lose of Heitkamp and MAYBE McCaskill. Both sides would be able to declare victory. If 2010 wasn't so lopsided in the House, this election would be similar


If Democrats overperform by 2 or 3 points, they probably do leave the Republicans with less than 200 seats and will be able to dispute the Senate down the wire. This will probably be the only way to clearly repudiate Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

^If Democrats fail to take the House or it’s that close, IN-SEN is pretty much guaranteed to flip and MT is certainly doable as well.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

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538 is broken if it thinks that.

R+5 would be TX, TN, ND,

And four of MT, FL, MO, IN, AZ, NV

(1,2,3,4), (1,2,3,5), (1,2,3,6), (1,2,4,5), (1,2,4,6), (1,3,4,5) (1,4,5,6), (2,3,4,5) (3,4,5,6),

I have Rs up in AZ, MO, NV, and in FL, tossup in MT and IN.

0.55 exp 3 * 0.5 exp  2 = 4 percent to win all 5, which would be R+6.

To win four of these would be around 8 percent. As there are 8 separate permutations, that's 64 percent. GOP are odds-on favorite to win R+5.

D+4 would be all five of these breaking Democrat, which would be about 2 percent, plus TX (about 10 percent, plus TN, about 8 percent and ND about 2 percent, plus MS at about 2 percent.

That is 3.6x10 exp -6 percent, for D+4.

Anybody else want to take me up on the bet that R+5 is equally as likely as D+4?

With these implied odds, D+2, is less than a percent.

There's a lot of things wrong with this math.  But the most basic one is that the last scenario you describe would be D+5, not D+4.  I don't really think D+5 is possible even in a landslide at the margins of plausibility, because I think it would be almost impossible for Dems to win a run-off in MS.

[The Mikado]

It's an expectations game... anything short of the utter obliteration of the GOP is a defeat for the Dems...

If the GOP holds the Senate, Trump will declare Victory....

If the GOP holds the House thee will be mass suicides.....

But seriously.....

There is the scenario where the polls, across the board, have some systemic problem.  I don’t see that happening.  There is too much diversity of firms and methodology for EVERYBODY to screw it up….

The range of outcomes is a bit broader than the polls would suggest, however.

Most years the polls are, as a group, out by 2 or 3 points, you just never know in which direction :-)
If the Dems are under polling by 2-3 points the Senate gets very interesting.  50/50 would be a real possibility.

If the GOP is under polling by 2-3 points the Senate going 54/46 is plausible, which would be seen as a Big GOP win.

On the House side, I think if the polls are right the Dems take control and have a net pick up of 35 (ish)

If the Dems are 2-3 points under polling a pick up of 50-60 is doable, if the GOP is under polling by 2-3 % the House is very, very close.

The House for the GOP is more or less where Trump was in 2016 polling wise…..  “probably” a Dem takeover, but the GOP holding the House would be a surprise, but not a shock…..

(PS – The polls in 2016 were fine… it was the "expert" analysts that were the idiots)

You're acting like the opinion of cable hosts is what's at stake here. If Democrats barely take the House then of course there will be lots of tutting from Jake Tapper, but who cares? The power of subpoena is what's important.

Yeah. If the House result ends up a 25 seat Dem pickup (220 D, 215 R), will there be a lot of disappointed Democrats? Sure. Will that result still have major ramifications that signify a major change from 2 years of complete GOP dominance? Absolutely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP once again, have solidified their base so that it won't be a shalacking at the polls. The Dems will make considerable gains; however in the Senate, its the red map that works in the GOP favor.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Thanks for the correction.

It's still much less than one percent odds either way you swing it for D+5 and D+4. Like several orders of magnitude less.