Which Midwestern State are Dems most wrongly overconfident about?

[MT Treasurer]

Probably the same Midwestern state they were "most wrongly overconfident about" in 2016. Don’t get me wrong, Walker is definitely in serious trouble and could certainly lose reelection, but I’m not at all convinced that he’s DOA or that WI is now back to being a blue wall state again or whatever. If Marquette confirms PPP's numbers, I’ll probably move it to Lean D, but we still have 2 1/2 months to go.

With regard to Senate races, however, I’d definitely say Michigan and not Wisconsin (Baldwin is a pretty strong incumbent facing a joke in Vukmir, and if anything she’s probably underrated). I don’t actually think James will win in this environment, but I’m not buying that Stabenow is the political goddess this forum is making her out to be or that she will easily cruise to a >20-point victory, and peenie_weenie made some good points about MI no longer being as solidly Democratic as it used to be. I don’t get why people here ridicule Republicans for saying there is some upset potential in this race or that James is a stronger candidate than Barletta or Vukmir or Rosendale or Renacci or whoever (and believe it or not, it has nothing to do with him being Black).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, its OH, that's the only state in the Midwest Dems aren't gonna win

[Scottholes 2.0]

Obviously, its OH, that's the only state in the Midwest Dems aren't gonna win

I sure hope you're right! Here in Wisconsin, we want Walker gone! Even my Republican parents and siblings are voting against Walker unlike the last three times. Hopefully many Walker supporters will follow suit.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Probably the same Midwestern state they were "most wrongly overconfident about" in 2016. Don’t get me wrong, Walker is definitely in serious trouble and could certainly lose reelection, but I’m not at all convinced that he’s DOA or that WI is now back to being a blue wall state again or whatever. If Marquette confirms PPP's numbers, I’ll probably move it to Lean D, but we still have 2 1/2 months to go.

100x yep. The Dems haven't shown they've moved on from the "I care only about Milwaukee/Madison" mindset that had sunk them time and time again since '09.

[Politician]

Probably the same Midwestern state they were "most wrongly overconfident about" in 2016. Don’t get me wrong, Walker is definitely in serious trouble and could certainly lose reelection, but I’m not at all convinced that he’s DOA or that WI is now back to being a blue wall state again or whatever. If Marquette confirms PPP's numbers, I’ll probably move it to Lean D, but we still have 2 1/2 months to go.

100x yep. The Dems haven't shown they've moved on from the "I care only about Milwaukee/Madison" mindset that had sunk them time and time again since '09.

It worked in the supreme court election.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Probably the same Midwestern state they were "most wrongly overconfident about" in 2016. Don’t get me wrong, Walker is definitely in serious trouble and could certainly lose reelection, but I’m not at all convinced that he’s DOA or that WI is now back to being a blue wall state again or whatever. If Marquette confirms PPP's numbers, I’ll probably move it to Lean D, but we still have 2 1/2 months to go.

100x yep. The Dems haven't shown they've moved on from the "I care only about Milwaukee/Madison" mindset that had sunk them time and time again since '09.

It worked in the supreme court election.

Officially non-partisan and specials are low-turnout affairs that favour the presidential outparty.

[pbrower2a]

Obviously, its OH, that's the only state in the Midwest Dems aren't gonna win

Indiana is Midwestern.

[Dr. Arch]

Probably the same Midwestern state they were "most wrongly overconfident about" in 2016. Don’t get me wrong, Walker is definitely in serious trouble and could certainly lose reelection, but I’m not at all convinced that he’s DOA or that WI is now back to being a blue wall state again or whatever. If Marquette confirms PPP's numbers, I’ll probably move it to Lean D, but we still have 2 1/2 months to go.

100x yep. The Dems haven't shown they've moved on from the "I care only about Milwaukee/Madison" mindset that had sunk them time and time again since '09.

It worked in the supreme court election.

Officially non-partisan and specials are low-turnout affairs that favour the presidential outparty.

It was not low turnout by any means. Can you just stop talking about politics? You know nothing.

[Virginiá]

Officially non-partisan and specials are low-turnout affairs that favour the presidential outparty.

Non-partisan judicial elections aside, many of the Congressional special elections held since 2017 have had midterm-level turnout. And this might be the first cycle where so many specials swung so hard and so consistently against the White House party.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Officially non-partisan and specials are low-turnout affairs that favour the presidential outparty.

Non-partisan judicial elections aside, many of the Congressional special elections held since 2017 have had midterm-level turnout. And this might be the first cycle where so many specials swung so hard and so consistently against the White House party.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Wild card pick - Minnesota. In gubernatorial races, it's the only state of the four where the Dem candidate is running to replace a fellow Democrat. While Dayton is reasonably popular, it's still a challenge to win the governor's mansion for three straight elections in a purplish state, even if it does have a Dem lean.

All four races are at worst tossups, even possibly lean D for all but Ohio. But Democrats here and nationally act like Minnesota is in the bag while exhibiting concerns about the other 3.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pennsylvania.

[Xing]

This thread should be changed to "Which Midwestern State do the resident concern trolls have the biggest fetish for?" Though the answer to that one would be obvious, I suppose.

[2016]

I say Wisconsin.

I think Democrats are still underestimating the Republican Turnout Machine Walker, Reince and P. Ryan have built in WI.

[IceSpear]

I say Wisconsin.

I think Democrats are still underestimating the Republican Turnout Machine Walker, Reince and P. Ryan have built in WI.

That turnout machine didn't help them much in 2012, even when Ryan himself was at the top of the ballot.

[2016]

I say Wisconsin.

I think Democrats are still underestimating the Republican Turnout Machine Walker, Reince and P. Ryan have built in WI.

That turnout machine didn't help them much in 2012, even when Ryan himself was at the top of the ballot.

I think it wasn't as sophisticated as it is now.

Also, Obama has had the best GOTV Turnout Machine EVER of a Presidential Candidate in 2008 & 2012. You'll need to account for that. Jim Messina & his people did a pretty spectacular job there.

After 2012 Reince said. Well, let's fix this and they did.

I've a Question to you:

Which Turnout GOTV Machine would you take, Obamas or Hillary's as you seem to be a Democratic Voter?

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin. Republicans are more likely to win Ohio, but the Democrats aren't as confident about it.

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

Fortunately for Cordray, OH-12 is well to the right of Ohio as a state, so if DeWine wants to take solace in a less than 1% Balderson win, by all means!

Fortunately for Dewine, the rest of Ohio is considerably less #Resistancy than OH-12.

I think the interesting question for Ohio suburbs will be metro Cincy.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin. Republicans are more likely to win Ohio, but the Democrats aren't as confident about it.

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

Fortunately for Cordray, OH-12 is well to the right of Ohio as a state, so if DeWine wants to take solace in a less than 1% Balderson win, by all means!

Fortunately for Dewine, the rest of Ohio is considerably less #Resistancy than OH-12.

I think the interesting question for Ohio suburbs will be metro Cincy.

 
Kyle Kondik seems to think that something could also be happening in the Cleveland burbs. He moved OH-14 to Lean R.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Wisconsin. Republicans are more likely to win Ohio, but the Democrats aren't as confident about it.

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

Fortunately for Cordray, OH-12 is well to the right of Ohio as a state, so if DeWine wants to take solace in a less than 1% Balderson win, by all means!

Fortunately for Dewine, the rest of Ohio is considerably less #Resistancy than OH-12.

I think the interesting question for Ohio suburbs will be metro Cincy.

Idk what #Resistancy is supposed to mean, but if you’re implying OH-12 is #Resistancy, then Ohio as a state might as well just put on a pussy hat and grab a bullhorn and go to one of the rallies. Sherrod Brown lost it by 8 points in 2012, fwiw.

Yeah that statement puzzled me, too. If suburbs = "#Resistancy" then Republicans are going to get annihilated this year.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin. Republicans are more likely to win Ohio, but the Democrats aren't as confident about it.

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

Fortunately for Cordray, OH-12 is well to the right of Ohio as a state, so if DeWine wants to take solace in a less than 1% Balderson win, by all means!

Fortunately for Dewine, the rest of Ohio is considerably less #Resistancy than OH-12.

I think the interesting question for Ohio suburbs will be metro Cincy.

 
Kyle Kondik seems to think that something could also be happening in the Cleveland burbs. He moved OH-14 to Lean R.

OH-14 should have been Lean R right from the start. Trump did well there, but it's an ancestrally Even-ish seat in the past. It's elections haven't been all that close because LaTourette and Joyce are strong incumbents, but in a Dem-leaning year, it's clearly competitive.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin. Republicans are more likely to win Ohio, but the Democrats aren't as confident about it.

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

Fortunately for Cordray, OH-12 is well to the right of Ohio as a state, so if DeWine wants to take solace in a less than 1% Balderson win, by all means!

Fortunately for Dewine, the rest of Ohio is considerably less #Resistancy than OH-12.

I think the interesting question for Ohio suburbs will be metro Cincy.

Idk what #Resistancy is supposed to mean, but if you’re implying OH-12 is #Resistancy, then Ohio as a state might as well just put on a pussy hat and grab a bullhorn and go to one of the rallies. Sherrod Brown lost it by 8 points in 2012, fwiw.

Sherrod Brown is an old time union boss type of Democrat (at least on economic policy). Of course he got drilled in upper class suburbia with an ancestrally Republican lean.

By #Resistancy I meant upper class suburban, white collar, educated, and socially liberal to socially moderate. The northern suburbs of Columbus are exactly the part of Ohio where you'd expect the Trump-era GOP to tank.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Wisconsin. Republicans are more likely to win Ohio, but the Democrats aren't as confident about it.

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

Fortunately for Cordray, OH-12 is well to the right of Ohio as a state, so if DeWine wants to take solace in a less than 1% Balderson win, by all means!

Fortunately for Dewine, the rest of Ohio is considerably less #Resistancy than OH-12.

I think the interesting question for Ohio suburbs will be metro Cincy.

Idk what #Resistancy is supposed to mean, but if you’re implying OH-12 is #Resistancy, then Ohio as a state might as well just put on a pussy hat and grab a bullhorn and go to one of the rallies. Sherrod Brown lost it by 8 points in 2012, fwiw.

Sherrod Brown is an old time union boss type of Democrat (at least on economic policy). Of course he got drilled in upper class suburbia with an ancestrally Republican lean.

By #Resistancy I meant upper class suburban, white collar, educated, and socially liberal to socially moderate. The northern suburbs of Columbus are exactly the part of Ohio where you'd expect the Trump-era GOP to tank.

OH-12 swung to Trump.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin. Republicans are more likely to win Ohio, but the Democrats aren't as confident about it.

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

Fortunately for Cordray, OH-12 is well to the right of Ohio as a state, so if DeWine wants to take solace in a less than 1% Balderson win, by all means!

Fortunately for Dewine, the rest of Ohio is considerably less #Resistancy than OH-12.

I think the interesting question for Ohio suburbs will be metro Cincy.

Idk what #Resistancy is supposed to mean, but if you’re implying OH-12 is #Resistancy, then Ohio as a state might as well just put on a pussy hat and grab a bullhorn and go to one of the rallies. Sherrod Brown lost it by 8 points in 2012, fwiw.

Sherrod Brown is an old time union boss type of Democrat (at least on economic policy). Of course he got drilled in upper class suburbia with an ancestrally Republican lean.

By #Resistancy I meant upper class suburban, white collar, educated, and socially liberal to socially moderate. The northern suburbs of Columbus are exactly the part of Ohio where you'd expect the Trump-era GOP to tank.

OH-12 swung to Trump.

By a lot less than the rest of Ohio did:

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Wisconsin. Republicans are more likely to win Ohio, but the Democrats aren't as confident about it.

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

Fortunately for Cordray, OH-12 is well to the right of Ohio as a state, so if DeWine wants to take solace in a less than 1% Balderson win, by all means!

Fortunately for Dewine, the rest of Ohio is considerably less #Resistancy than OH-12.

I think the interesting question for Ohio suburbs will be metro Cincy.

Idk what #Resistancy is supposed to mean, but if you’re implying OH-12 is #Resistancy, then Ohio as a state might as well just put on a pussy hat and grab a bullhorn and go to one of the rallies. Sherrod Brown lost it by 8 points in 2012, fwiw.

Sherrod Brown is an old time union boss type of Democrat (at least on economic policy). Of course he got drilled in upper class suburbia with an ancestrally Republican lean.

By #Resistancy I meant upper class suburban, white collar, educated, and socially liberal to socially moderate. The northern suburbs of Columbus are exactly the part of Ohio where you'd expect the Trump-era GOP to tank.

OH-12 swung to Trump.

By a lot less than the rest of Ohio did:

Sure, but it's still not exactly #resistance country, and it was still more conservative than the state at large.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin. Republicans are more likely to win Ohio, but the Democrats aren't as confident about it.

I'm voting Wisconsin. There is no Marquette poll showing Walker significantly behind, and Dem strength is concentrated in Madison/Milwaukee, which doesn't bode well for taking back the legislature.

Ohio is a close second, but with the letdown in OH-12, Cordray would need to win back the Rust Belt-y/Pittsburgh-esque portions of the state, and that ain't happening. Plus, the legislature is gerrymandered to the point that even if Cordray won, he'd be facing a veto-proof majority.

Fortunately for Cordray, OH-12 is well to the right of Ohio as a state, so if DeWine wants to take solace in a less than 1% Balderson win, by all means!

Fortunately for Dewine, the rest of Ohio is considerably less #Resistancy than OH-12.

I think the interesting question for Ohio suburbs will be metro Cincy.

Idk what #Resistancy is supposed to mean, but if you’re implying OH-12 is #Resistancy, then Ohio as a state might as well just put on a pussy hat and grab a bullhorn and go to one of the rallies. Sherrod Brown lost it by 8 points in 2012, fwiw.

Sherrod Brown is an old time union boss type of Democrat (at least on economic policy). Of course he got drilled in upper class suburbia with an ancestrally Republican lean.

By #Resistancy I meant upper class suburban, white collar, educated, and socially liberal to socially moderate. The northern suburbs of Columbus are exactly the part of Ohio where you'd expect the Trump-era GOP to tank.

OH-12 swung to Trump.

By a lot less than the rest of Ohio did:

Sure, but it's still not exactly #resistance country, and it was still more conservative than the state at large.

Perhaps I should be clearer, much of the Franklin County portion of OH-12 is #resistance country, whereas the rural half of the district is moderately Trumpy by OH standards and ancestrally Republican. Together they average out to an educated suburban district that is far wealthier than Ohio as a whole and has a slight Republican lean, but swung toward Trump less than Ohio as a whole.