Will the Democrats win the Senate?

[°Leprechaun]

The issue of Democrat v GOP turnout seems to be as big a factor as the "swing" voters.

Turnout for both of those parties could be bigger than usual, but which party will have a greater
increase in turnout? This could depend on how many first time voters decide to come out -not the biggest factor, but could it possibly make the difference in the closest elections?

For example, with the Texas Senate race tightening, many who might otherwise have staid home, might decided to vote.

I would predict a Cruz victory at this point, but a loss seems possible if unlikely.

Another issue is whether the Democrats can stop Kavanaugh. If they can get Collins and Murkowski to vote against him, it could conceivably be a nightmare for Democrats in Trump states.
How bold will the Democrats be. If they can stop Kavanaugh, and they win the Senate, could the seat remain vacant until after the 2020 election? That sounds a little unlikely, but these are strange times, are they not?

[°Leprechaun]

Many voters are not in states or districts that will be close, so I would expect a greater turnout in states and districts with close elections. How many voters would stay home? How many of those who don't follow politics closely are aware that there are many down ballot races and referenda?
The US Congress matters, but so do gubernatorial and state houses etc.

[IceSpear]

It would be bloody miraculous for the Dems to win every single tossup seat they're defending. One will drop somewhere.

I can't find the link anymore, but it's anything but uncommon for one party to win all but one of the tossup races. Right now, a Democratic Majority is very possible. Most of the time, one party wins all but one or two of the toss-up races. Based on Cook's current ratings, Democrats need to win 7/8 tossups, a possibility well within the norm of Senate elections.

I voted too close too call. I think it's basically a coin flip at this point.

The problem is, unless you see TN and/or TX as toss ups, then Dems would need to win literally all of them, not all but one or two.

[TarHeelDem]

TN is a Toss-Up and TX is a soft Lean R. Dem control of the Senate is totally possible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Elections are unpredictable and only once, in 2010 has one house of congress flipped without the other. And it was a GOP year, anyways.  2014, the House stayed GOP and the Senate flipped GOP, and Dems made enroads in the House, in 2016 and both houses stayed GOP.

If you are a believer in the wave, the Dems will win the Senate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I estimate that there's a 40% chance that the GOP holds the Senate, a 30% chance that there is a 50-50 tie, and a 30% chance that the Democrats garner a majority.

A 50-50 tie is the Republicans holding the Senate, assuming that McCain is appointed with someone who actually shows up.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Lose IN, pick up AZ, TN and maybe NV.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lose IN, pick up AZ, TN and maybe NV.

lol

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Lose IN, pick up AZ, TN and maybe NV.

lol

What is lol about that? Blackburn is a weak candidate without incumbency advantage and Heller is in a state with many Hispanics that has been trending D for a while now.

Even RCP average has Dems leading in each race.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I was LOLing at the idea that Heller is more likely to win than Blackburn. Nevada is a lean-D state and Tennessee a solid-R one.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

I was LOLing at the idea that Heller is more likely to win than Blackburn. Nevada is a lean-D state and Tennessee a solid-R one.

I see. Well, Heller is an incumbent and not quite as crazy as Blackburn, while running against a less centrist opponent. I understand your logic but I stand by my assessment at this point in the campaign.

[IceSpear]

I was LOLing at the idea that Heller is more likely to win than Blackburn. Nevada is a lean-D state and Tennessee a solid-R one.

I see. Well, Heller is an incumbent and not quite as crazy as Blackburn, while running against a less centrist opponent. I understand your logic but I stand by my assessment at this point in the campaign.

I can tell you'll fit in very well here.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I was LOLing at the idea that Heller is more likely to win than Blackburn. Nevada is a lean-D state and Tennessee a solid-R one.

I see. Well, Heller is an incumbent and not quite as crazy as Blackburn, while running against a less centrist opponent. I understand your logic but I stand by my assessment at this point in the campaign.

Rosen is plenty centrist, and TN will remember that it's TN.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Even in wave years candidate quality matters. For example, compare Colorado 2010 to Colorado 2014, or even Heller's own win in 2012 as candidates like Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly won in less favorable conditions. Harold Ford Jr. came close in 2006 against Corker, with Bredesen being Superior to Ford and Blackburn inferior to Corker. Feel free to disagree but I don't think it's such a crazy prospect.

[IceSpear]

Even in wave years candidate quality matters. For example, compare Colorado 2010 to Colorado 2014, or even Heller's own win in 2012 as candidates like Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly won in less favorable conditions. Harold Ford Jr. came close in 2006 against Corker, with Bredesen being Superior to Ford and Blackburn inferior to Corker. Feel free to disagree but I don't think it's such a crazy prospect.

Heller won by 1 point because he was running against a horrible corrupt candidate under ethics investigation, not because he himself was strong. He got less votes than Mitt Romney did. So true. Strong candidate INCUMBENT Dean Heller will trounce Jacky Rosen, who wouldn't be fit to shine the high heels of strong candidate Shelley Berkley.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Even in wave years candidate quality matters. For example, compare Colorado 2010 to Colorado 2014, or even Heller's own win in 2012 as candidates like Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly won in less favorable conditions. Harold Ford Jr. came close in 2006 against Corker, with Bredesen being Superior to Ford and Blackburn inferior to Corker. Feel free to disagree but I don't think it's such a crazy prospect.

I didn't predict a Heller win, lets not get carried away.
Heller won by 1 point because he was running against a horrible corrupt candidate under ethics investigation, not because he himself was strong. He got less votes than Mitt Romney did. So true. Strong candidate INCUMBENT Dean Heller will trounce Jacky Rosen, who wouldn't be fit to shine the high heels of strong candidate Shelley Berkley.

[SingingAnalyst]

Elections are unpredictable and only once, in 2010 has one house of congress flipped without the other. And it was a GOP year, anyways.  2014, the House stayed GOP and the Senate flipped GOP, and Dems made enroads in the House, in 2016 and both houses stayed GOP.

If you are a believer in the wave, the Dems will win the Senate.

Good comment. In point of fact, in 1980 the Senate flipped, but not the House. (The GOP did make big gains in the House that year, though).

In 2010, no, the Senate did not flip, but it was so lopsided Dem going in that the 7 seats the GOP gained weren't quite enough to flip it.

If the Dems flip the Senate, the GOP should hang its head in shame. Twenty-five seats the GOP could have picked up in theory, and instead they lost ground and lost the Senate.

[Mr. Illini]

Too close to call, but it is going to be very tough. We have to win in pretty much every state that is competitive. North Dakota, Indiana, and Florida will be the largest barriers.