Wow, the overconfidence on this thread. Saying a perennial swing state will definitely be won by a certain candidate two years before the election
Anyway, while Florida does come in quickly, they're usually pretty careful about calling it, for... "historical" reasons. If Trump is winning by more than he did in 2016, then it will definitely be called first, but if not, I think Michigan could be called for the Democrat first. My ratings in a close race would be:
Michigan - Tilt D
Pennsylvania - Toss-Up
Wisconsin - Toss-Up
Florida - Tilt R