It’s obvious Warren, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg would have lost in landslides

[Blair]

Warren baffles me in that I can easily see how she would have beaten both Hillary & Trump in 2016 but equally I can see how she would have done awfully in 2020.

[BaldEagle1991]

Biden, Bernie, Yang and Tulsi are the only democratic candidates which could have beat Trump in the election. I've held this viewpoint since the primaries and I stick with it.
Also, why are people saying Klob could win? She did TERRIBLE with minorities.

Tulsi hell no.

Yang would do well, but I think after COVID-19 there might be some small but very hidden anti-Asian backlash that might come into some voters minds. It'll be like nominating a Muslim guy to beat Bush in 2004.

Bernie would do well but I think based on what you've seen in Miami-Dade with Cuban voters, there could be some more hatred among them to Bernie based on him being a Dem-Socialist or Progressive, that he might be pummeled by them and like-minded moderate voters who are weary of socialistic programs. So he would've lost by a hair like Hillary.

[Fargobison]

Warren has the worst political instincts that I have ever seen, she would have lost in a HRC repeat. This was just not her time. Maybe Klobuchar could have had a Midwest blue wall strategy and gotten by with just enough to win, give her a VP that would bolster her with minorities. Buttigeig is a wildcard, that could maybe win or lose in HRC fashion or worse.

Biden is pretty much a generic Dem with a ton of experience, he was really the best candidate to run. The ideal return to normalcy/stability candidate after these insane four years.

[emailking]

Also, why are people saying Klob could win? She did TERRIBLE with minorities.

In a primary. She would have gotten 90% of the black vote like anyone with a D would have.

[emailking]

Both 2016 and 2020 poll errors were within the margin of error. The reason is they Shy Trump effect and Trump voters not having a landslide

Margin of error takes into account statistical uncertainty. If you're saying that explains the polling error, then the pollsters just got unlucky. But you're saying it's due to the Shy Trump effect, which is an explanation for a systematic error. If that's the explanation, then the pollsters' methods are flawed. But it can't be both.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Biden, Bernie, Yang and Tulsi are the only democratic candidates which could have beat Trump in the election. I've held this viewpoint since the primaries and I stick with it.
Also, why are people saying Klob could win? She did TERRIBLE with minorities.

Tulsi is reviled by many Dems for her right wing pandering, I highly doubt she would've won if she somehow made it through the primary. She's one of only two people (Bloomberg being the other) that I feel certain would've seen a third party challenge.

Heavily disagree with the Tulsi thing. While a bunch of (mostly establishment dems) hate her, basically all would be behind her in the general. She would gain progressive support because of her progressive economic policies. She would do honestly better than any democrat could amongst republicans, no not just moderates but TRUMP SUPPORTERS! Tulsi consistently came up as one of the only dems which trump supporters would vote for, and she would be immune to lots of Trump's attacks. What could Trump attack her on? not impeaching him? Being pro-Assad and Modi (which I despise about her)? Being hated by the Clintons? There is no reason for Trump to attack her on any of that and the truth is that the people who hate her most are the most "vote blue no matter who" people. She is controversial but too many people on this forum dismiss her because of some stupid foreign policy ideas which most people don't know or care about and Trump will not bring up.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Also, why are people saying Klob could win? She did TERRIBLE with minorities.

In a primary. She would have gotten 90% of the black vote like anyone with a D would have.

As far as I know, Amy doesn’t have a D.

[TDAS04]

Warren probably would have lost, but Klobuchar probably would have won.  Don't know about Buttigieg, his lack of experience could have been a problem.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Also, why are people saying Klob could win? She did TERRIBLE with minorities.

In a primary. She would have gotten 90% of the black vote like anyone with a D would have.

As far as I know, Amy doesn’t have a D.

Damy Dlobuchar

[Motorcity]

Both 2016 and 2020 poll errors were within the margin of error. The reason is they Shy Trump effect and Trump voters not having a landslide

Margin of error takes into account statistical uncertainty. If you're saying that explains the polling error, then the pollsters just got unlucky. But you're saying it's due to the Shy Trump effect, which is an explanation for a systematic error. If that's the explanation, then the pollsters' methods are flawed. But it can't be both.

Here is what I am saying

Generally, the margin of error is 5%. But for a good pollster, it shouldn't be 2-3%. Even than, most modern polls were spot on. So why were polls in 2016 and 2020 so off, even if they were in the margin of error?

I think its a combination of the Shy Trump effect AND Trump voters being less likely to be reached in polls

[Ancestral Republican]

Bernie would have beaten Trump and won the Senate, too. Dying on this hill.

[wbrocks67]

I don't buy this "Biden was the only way to beat Trump" narrative. The primary arguments I heard for him over the alternatives time and time again were:

* He'll win back the rural WWC in the Midwest
* He'll win the elderly to win Florida
* He'll inspire Obama-esque (or at least closer to Obama than Hillary) black margins and turnout

Those first two were extremely marginal at best and highly inconsistent. Biden actually did worse in rural Wisconsin and Ohio than Hillary did, but a little better in rural Michigan and Pennsylvania, while his gains in senior heavy counties like Sumter, FL were basically imperceptible. And he somehow managed to do worse with the black vote than Hillary.

Biden won due to factors totally beyond his control with the biggest being the sheer antipathy towards Trump. If Biden were the necessary component then presumably the above factors would have won him the day. Instead, Biden's victory was won pretty much entirely on extremely strong performances in the suburbs overriding pretty much every other demographic swinging Trump's way.  Frankly, I'm pretty sure 90% of those suburban anti-Trump voters would have cast their vote for a rock if that rock was the highest polling alternative to Trump.

Mind, Warren would have been worse than a rock since she'd only bring negatives to a Democratic ticket, but I've seen no reason to suspect Buttigieg or Klobuchar would have done any worse. They had weaknesses with the black vote during the primaries but it turned out that Biden wasn't great at bringing them out anyway. If anything I'd imagine Buttigieg and Klobuchar would both do slightly better than Biden solely on the basis of the people who didn't vote Biden out of concern about his health.

This is really misreading what happened with black turnout. The narrative that is being pushed is not necessarily true.

Not to mention, black turnout would've objectively been less with another nominee in Sanders, Butt, Klob, etc

[Ancestral Republican]

Also, why are people saying Klob could win? She did TERRIBLE with minorities.

In a primary. She would have gotten 90% of the black vote like anyone with a D would have.

The issue is turnout. Obama dragged Biden across the finish line with a Republican Senate but Klobz and Chuck E and probably Warren were certainly not going to get people to the polls for them. And black voters aren't a monolith, the sooner you realize that and stop pushing atrocious candidates and start modernizing the Dem platform to fix issues the majority of people need, the better.