Which state is most likely to change from the party it voted for in 2000?

[MissCatholic]

I'm going for Iowa. I think Iowa will vote democrat in 2008. Incumbents have an effect on how states vote and i think if feingold or warner wins then they will win Iowa before ohio

[TheresNoMoney]

I'll say New Mexico (Bush only won by about 6,000 votes there in 2004).

[nini2287]

NH it already changed once and if socialissues continue to play an ever increasing part of politics, it will stay Democrat.

[TheresNoMoney]

I agree that my home state is trending blue. It is a socially liberal state.

Only a John McCain or Rudy Guiliani would have a chance here in 2008.

[Speed of Sound]

New Mexico

[MasterJedi]

I voted Iowa but it's that and New Mexico.

But that also depends on who the nominee is. If the Reps have McCain more than likely a lot more states will fall to him.

[Frodo]

Wisconsin

[MaC]

I'm going for Iowa. I think Iowa will vote democrat in 2008. Incumbents have an effect on how states vote and i think if feingold or warner wins then they will win Iowa before ohio

uh, Iowa did vote Dem in 2000.

[MaC]

surprized you didn't put Florida in there, it was close both elections.  Anyways, the big swing state that will go GOP by a slight margin will be Pennsylvania, then Michigan.  Meanwhile Democrats will tap the shallow south (Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky), possibly win back WV, and might have a shot at Nevada.  Florida will still be a major player in the next several elections.  May flip for Dems once.  New Hampshire will vote GOP once more before it's indistinguishable from the rest of New England...

[Blank Slate]

Well I agree it all depends on who wins the nominations in either party.  I myself voted for New Mexico, but agreed it depends on the GOP side if say the nominee is McCain or not.  If either Napolitano (AZ) or Richardson (NM) is on the Democratic ticket than New Mexico could go back decivisely for the Democrats (although more likely if Richardson is the Democratic Presidential nominee).

Other states close for both parties that could switch from 2004, depending on circumstances (in no particular order):

Democrat to Republican, going west to east:

Hawaii (yes, Hawaii would depend on who is on the tickets and issues going on at that time; this state was closer for Kerry then it should have been and it does have a GOP governor)
Washington
Oregon
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire

Republican to Democrat, going east to west:

Virginia
West Virginia (although I'm concerned as a Democrat this may have fallen into the GOP column for good or at least for the forseeable future)
Ohio
Tennessee (it might depend on what happens to Bredesen & the U.S. Senate race in '06 especially with Ford)
Florida
Iowa
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana
Nevada
 

 

[opebo]

Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada are all exceedingly likely to switch parties in 2008.

Also if you are talking switching from 2000 and not 2004, New Hampshire is virtually certain to switch as it should now be a reliably Democrat state.