Which Southern State will Democrats win statewide in first?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The following four states haven’t had a Democratic victory statewide for a while and are generally strongly Republican leaning with the exception of Georgia. Which of the above states will a a Democrat win statewide first in. If I had to guess I would say Georgia for SOS where former Rep John Barrow is running.

[Skill and Chance]

I would be pretty surprised if it's not Georgia this year with the Cagle-Delta situation, Barrow for SoS, and the Dem leads on the generic.  If neither of those races are a Dem win, I think it will either be the Georgia senate seat flipping in 2020 if Trump loses or multiple offices in Georgia and Texas in 2022 if Trump wins.  Beto has an outside chance this year, but if he's winning, Barrow or Abrams/Evans has long since won.

[smoltchanov]

Georgia. Then, probably, Texas, then - Tennessee, and South Carolina - last. Though 3rd and 4th may switch...

[OneJ]

Georgia. Then, probably, Texas, then - Tennessee, and South Carolina - last. Though 3rd and 4th may switch...

This.

[Greedo punched first]

In order:
1. Georgia
2. Texas
3. South Carolina
4. Tennessee

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

On the Presidential level, obviously Georgia. on the state level, I think Tennessee and South Carolina would vote for a Democrat before Texas.

[Greedo punched first]

On the Presidential level, obviously Georgia. on the state level, I think Tennessee and South Carolina would vote for a Democrat before Texas.

Tennessee trended GOP. Texas heavily trended Democratic. Texas flips before South Carolina. South Carolina flips before Tennessee.

[TDAS04]

Georgia makes the most sense.

[Skill and Chance]

Georgia makes the most sense.

The only reason this is even in doubt is the GE runoff provision in Georgia.  I can see an anti-Trump conservative running as an independent or libertarian and getting ~12% in some statewide race in Texas and throwing the election to a Democrat with 45% of the vote.  That can't happen in Georgia.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

On the Presidential level, obviously Georgia. on the state level, I think Tennessee and South Carolina would vote for a Democrat before Texas.

Tennessee trended GOP. Texas heavily trended Democratic. Texas flips before South Carolina. South Carolina flips before Tennessee.

I'm talking on the state level, not at a Presidential level.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Voted Georgia.

I'm fairly hopeful that at least John Barrow can win. He has the endorsements of several Republicans on the county level from his old district. He can swing some of those votes and piggy back off Abrams' enormous black turnout from the urban areas (even if she falls short statewide) and he could sneak in there.

[Dr. MB]

Georgia if it's only downballot races. But I wouldn't be surprised if all but South Carolina vote D in 2018 – if Senate races count.

[here2view]

For Presidential elections, definitely Georgia and it's not that close. I still believe Texas is a generation or so from voting Democrat. Georgia could by 2024 under the right conditions.

[MT Treasurer]

1. Georgia (obviously)
2. Texas
3. South Carolina
4. Tennessee

[pbrower2a]

Texas, because it is closer to the national average in social conditions, level of education, and ethnic mix.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Almost certainly Georgia.  I don't think it's close competition either, as TX is probably pretty far behind Georgia.