IL-GOV: Who wins?

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Pritzker in this environment.

This. Rauner isn't a bad candidate, but his message isn't going to be able to overcome the wave.

He has a 26% favorable rating and spent $75 million over Ives $3 million just to win a primary by 3%.

He's about as bad of a candidate as you can get, lol

I guess I just think that if someone saw a blind resume of his, and saw his commercials or sat in on one of his speeches, they'd say: "I don't see much wrong with this guy, he seems reasonable. Shouldn't he be reelected?" But the more you know about Bruce Rauner, the more you don't like him, of course.

[Mr. Illini]

Duckworth

[Canis]

Duckworth

Big if true

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Pritzker. Wish Biss got it, but I think he has a future. He’d make a good Congressman.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Wish Biss got it, but I think he has a future. He’d make a good Congressman.

Great call.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wish Biss got it, but I think he has a future. He’d make a good Congressman.

Great call.

What he said about teachers was really hurtful though.

[Donerail]

Pritzker. Wish Biss got it, but I think he has a future. He’d make a good Congressman.

Doubtful -- for a while he was seen as Schakowsky's protege and likely to get the seat when she retired, but this bid has burned a lot of those bridges and her operation endorsed JB.

[MasterJedi]

Rauner will get Kirk'd.

[Sir Mohamed]

Pritzker wins 54 – 42% pretty easily. Rauner is toast.

[Blair]

Pritzker, and it won't even be close...

They're both similar candidates in a sense (Rich, disliked by a factions in their parties, clear personal flaws) but the climate of 2018, the Democratic enthusiasm and the fact that Pritzker actually seems like a better candidate out of the two. 

[Donerail]

Pritzker, and it won't even be close...

They're both similar candidates in a sense (Rich, disliked by a factions in their parties, clear personal flaws) but the climate of 2018, the Democratic enthusiasm and the fact that Pritzker actually seems like a better candidate out of the two. 

It is worth noting that virtually all of Pritzker's scandals have been from his past -- Blago tapes, old financial stuff, that kinda thing. He's been fairly gaffe-free on the campaign trail.

[jamestroll]

Okay I have looked at the transits and progressions that I was able to do on JB Pritzker vs Bruce Rauner.

Too close to call essentially with an edge to JB Pritzker.

I really wish I had birth times for them!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov-elect Pritzker 51-46% from my home-state of Illinois

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I really have a hard time seeing how Rauner does both things he needs to do to win:

1. Win huge margins in the 101 counties not named Cook (particularly Lake, DuPage, Will, McHenry, Kane)
2. Make enough inroads in Cook to keep JB to a 2:1 margin

Bruce won in areas like Leyden Township where most Republicans don't even bother trying. He probably won the Cook panhandle by close to 20 points. He won the 42nd ward of the city of Chicago, which includes the Loop. He fought to a draw in liberal River Forest, just 10 miles from the loop. At the same time, he won every single county other than Cook, including some pretty liberal downstate counties like Fulton, Alexander, and Rock Island, and both big college town counties (Champaign and McLean). He won the bellweather county of Peoria by double digits. He easily won the swing districts of IL-10, IL-17, and IL-12 as well as Tammy Duckworth's IL-8. This was the single most impressive statewide run by a Republican in decades, the results of a carefully-planned and well-financed campaign by Rauner's team and a non-effort by his opponent, incumbent governor Pat Quinn (D).

And despite all that, he still only won Illinois by 5 points. His margin of error is just so small in this polarized state, and I really don't see how he pulls off what he did in 2014 again.

Lean D.