Bill Weld vs. Bill Clinton 1996

[PBrunsel]

(This is the first time I have set up a poll like this )

In 1996 the Republican Party nominates the popular Governor William Weld for President and hopes having a man regarded as a "moderate" on the ticket will help voters forget about the government shutdown in 1995 that has dogged them so far in the campaign.

Who does Weld chose as a running mate? How does he afre against the popular Clinton?

[Rob]

Weld would have had to choose an undoubted conservative as his running mate, preferably a southerner.  A possible choice would have been Carroll Campbell, governer of SC at the time IIRC.  Weld would have done better than Dole in the popular vote, but lost by a bigger electoral margin. A map:



Clinton wins 397-141. Weld gains Arizona but slips in the South, losing Georgia and Virginia.

[Nym90]

Actually, I think Clinton would have had a good chance at sweeping the whole South. Weld really wasn't much more conservative than Clinton on most issues, and he was pro-choice on abortion. With little difference between the candidates on issues, a lot of Southerners would vote for the Southerner, and this combined with the black vote would be enough to give Clinton the South. Weld would have done better in the Midwest and Northeast, but not enough to win.

Also, it's unlikely the GOP would have been united, someone like Pat Buchanan (he and his followers were a pretty strong force in the party at the time, remember; he was the runner up to Dole for the nomination) would have run as a 3rd party candidate. If this had happened, Buchanan would have done quite well in the South and would split off enough of the GOP base to maybe even cost Weld many Western and Plains states.

Remember, Jesse Helms HATED Bill Weld, and pretty much single-handedy torpedoed his nomination as UN ambassador. I can't see Weld winning North Carolina.

If for the sake of argument we assume that there is no significant 3rd party challenge from the right, Weld does better than Dole overall in the popular vote, but worse in the Electoral College. His gains in the North would be greater than his losses in the South, but not enough to win very many states. There weren't all that many states in the Northeast and Midwest that Clinton won that were close, remember.

[The Duke]

Weld was a stiff, and an echo of Clinton ideologically.  Why would any American vote to oust a charismatic moderate liberal incumbent for a boring moderate liberal challenger in times of solid economics?

[Bo]

Clinton/Clinton

[Old Man Willow]

Weld/Clinton.

[useful idiot]

Well I would have voted Nader, but if I had to pick between the two I'd choose Weld without a second thought. He'd lose in the general though...

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I would write in Bush Sr., and Clinton would win.