What contributed more to Lamb's win?

[Tekken_Guy]

What contributed more to Conor Lamb's victory? Trump voters defecting for Lamb or Democrats showing up to vote but not Republicans?

[mcmikk]

It was obviously a bit of both, and ordinarily I'd say it was more of a turnout gap than Trump crossover voters(like in Alabama), but there is substantial evidence suggesting that many Trump voters actually crossed over to Lamb. Lamb was pro-life(I think), sided with the President on some things, targeted Paul Ryan heavily, and boasted heavy support from labor unions. It was also pretty high-turnout for a special congressional election. I'm going to give it to Trump-Lamb voters, though that obviously doesn't tell the whole story.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

According to a PPP poll,

Lamb got 11% of Trump voters, which makes a fairly big difference. However, he only got 5% of people who approve of Trump, meaning there are some people who voted for Trump who no longer approve of him (this statistic is a huge blow to Trump cultists like Pennsylvania Deplorable).

I believe Trump-Lamb voters made a slightly bigger difference.

[Badger]

I'm rather surprised that the turnout Gap is leading. Yes, that helped, but it is very very clear to me that in a 60/40 trump District lamb would not have one but for a substantial number of trump voters flipping. There's just no way increased Democratic turnout has more contribution 2 flipping such a district from 6042 50/50 two-party vote as opposed to just more Democrats showing up.

[Sestak]

The "Nancy had a little Lamb" ad.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The turnout gap wasn't that big. You don't win a +20 district for the opposite party without crossover support.

[smoltchanov]

^ +1

[Jeppe]

The enthusiasm gap. Around 89% of Trump voters voted for Saccone. That’s a pretty normal number. In places like West Virginia, you’ll likely see it being much lower, and that’s when you can attribute it to Trump-Dem voters. Jim Justice won through Trump-Dem voters, not Conor Lamb.

[here2view]

The Trump-Lamb voters. Saccone won 89% of Trump voters, but really he should have gotten in the low 90's. If he gets like 93% he wins.

[Tintrlvr]

The Trump-Lamb voters. Saccone won 89% of Trump voters, but really he should have gotten in the low 90's. If he gets like 93% he wins.

I mean, given how close the result was, if he got 89.5%, he wins.

[GoTfan]

As was said above, Lamb ran as a social moderate but an economic populist. He had strong backing from unions, which was one of the tipping facts, in my opinion.