NJ 2017: Who wins Somerset County, N.J.?

[Suburbia]

Somerset County, N.J. is one of the most Republican-friendly counties in the state of New Jersey. They do vote for Democrats in some elections, most recently:

2016: Hillary Clinton (D-President)
2012: Barack Obama (D-President)
2012 Senate: Bob Menendez
2008 President: Barack Obama (D-President)
2006 Senate: Bob Menendez


https://www.insidernj.com/suburban-passion-gop-mail-stirs-anger-standing-murphys-team-get-fire-blanketed-taxes-trump-proximity-lurid-somerset-tales/

http://www.nj.com/somerset/index.ssf/2017/10/local_gop_political_ad_racially_divisive_us_rep_sa.html


Who wins Somerset County, N.J.? Phil Murphy, or Kim Guadagno?

[TheSaint250]

It has become more Democratic recently as the state has moved more to the left.  Chances are that the governor's race will produce a larger victory statewide for the Democrat, Phil Murphy, than these last few elections (presidential, senatorial, etc.), so Somerset County will most likely be won by Murphy.

[MT Treasurer]

I'd be shocked if Murphy lost it.

[Suburbia]

I'd be shocked if Murphy lost it.

They didn't vote for Booker in 2013 and 2014. I wonder why. He has the appeal for them: Centrist black Democrat.

[TheSaint250]

I'd be shocked if Murphy lost it.

They didn't vote for Booker in 2013 and 2014. I wonder why. He has the appeal for them: Centrist black Democrat.

It seems to be that they vote Democratic when the candidate is winning by at least 14 points.

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

I'd be shocked if Murphy lost it.

They didn't vote for Booker in 2013 and 2014. I wonder why. He has the appeal for them: Centrist black Democrat.

2013 - Christie popularity and low turnout
2014 - Six year itch

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

2016: Hillary Clinton (D-President)
2012: Barack Obama (D-President)
2012 Senate: Bob Menendez
2008 President: Barack Obama (D-President)
2006 Senate: Bob Menendez

Wait, wait, wait ... The Somersetters seem to hate the Cory?

[History505]

Murphy. If polling margin of double digit leads are correct, then he mostly would take Somerset County.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But it was very, very close.

[Devils30]

Murphy won it 50-48, definitely underperformed considering Morris and how Dems did in northern VA with similar demographics. Some sites say Guadagno won it but county elections page say Murphy did.  To win in 2018 they need to mobilize more. That said, the NJ election was very state focused and nationalizing things might help the Dems here.

[TheSaint250]

Murphy won it 50-48, definitely underperformed considering Morris and how Dems did in northern VA with similar demographics. Some sites say Guadagno won it but county elections page say Murphy did.  To win in 2018 they need to mobilize more. That said, the NJ election was very state focused and nationalizing things might help the Dems here.

The final results show Guadagno winning 49.7% to 48%.

Honestly, I would've thought Murphy would've won.

[Tekken_Guy]

Franklin Township's been the key Democratic anchor for a while. Without it Somerset would look like Morris County.

[Tintrlvr]

Murphy won it 50-48, definitely underperformed considering Morris and how Dems did in northern VA with similar demographics. Some sites say Guadagno won it but county elections page say Murphy did.  To win in 2018 they need to mobilize more. That said, the NJ election was very state focused and nationalizing things might help the Dems here.

The final results show Guadagno winning 49.7% to 48%.

Honestly, I would've thought Murphy would've won.

Agree, but Murphy's campaign was not really focused on suburban areas like Somerset. He focused on trying to maximize turnout in heavily Democratic urban areas. Which is a winning strategy for a Democrat in New Jersey but not going to deliver you an enormous margin. A bunch of state legislators were annoyed at him for it because it may have cost the Democrats a couple of potential gains in suburban state legislature districts, though in the end the Democrats' control of the state legislature was secure regardless.

[TheSaint250]

Murphy won it 50-48, definitely underperformed considering Morris and how Dems did in northern VA with similar demographics. Some sites say Guadagno won it but county elections page say Murphy did.  To win in 2018 they need to mobilize more. That said, the NJ election was very state focused and nationalizing things might help the Dems here.

The final results show Guadagno winning 49.7% to 48%.

Honestly, I would've thought Murphy would've won.

Agree, but Murphy's campaign was not really focused on suburban areas like Somerset. He focused on trying to maximize turnout in heavily Democratic urban areas. Which is a winning strategy for a Democrat in New Jersey but not going to deliver you an enormous margin. A bunch of state legislators were annoyed at him for it because it may have cost the Democrats a couple of potential gains in suburban state legislature districts, though in the end the Democrats' control of the state legislature was secure regardless.

It certainly paid off for him

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Wait, wait, wait, hold on! Where did you get the information that Guagadingo (or whatever her name is) is supposed to have won Somerset?