For States That Got 1 Dem & 1 GOP Senator Each, How Would They Do Head To Head?

[IceSpear]

The Republicans would win all races easily except PA and CO.

Why NV?

[BuckeyeNut]

Kasich would lose to Sherrod. some third party would come in and take 15+% of the vote.

Quite possibly, but in this scenario he wins the R primary (which he probably wouldn't IRL), so I assume he would have made up at least some ground.

Not necessarily. A lot of D's are still registered R's from 2016, and assuming this was to take place in '18 -- 1) because that's when Sherrod's up again, and 2) because it's also the next Senate election, period -- they would still be eligible to vote in the Republican primary and could push Kasich over the top.

And while Kasich is a lot less popular then he used to be, him winning a primary over Mandel still wouldn't be that hard.

Not with a 4 way primary for governor. I dont see a world where Kasich wins a statewide GOP primary for anything right now.

That's not how semi-open works. All the Ds who hadn't voted in a primary before -- and there were lots -- are now stuck as registered Rs. They have to sit out the '18 primaries to go back to neutral before they can vote in the D primaries.

Also, Strickland's early stage dementia can't be underplayed. It was quite sad.

[Rjjr77]

Kasich would lose to Sherrod. some third party would come in and take 15+% of the vote.

Quite possibly, but in this scenario he wins the R primary (which he probably wouldn't IRL), so I assume he would have made up at least some ground.

Not necessarily. A lot of D's are still registered R's from 2016, and assuming this was to take place in '18 -- 1) because that's when Sherrod's up again, and 2) because it's also the next Senate election, period -- they would still be eligible to vote in the Republican primary and could push Kasich over the top.

And while Kasich is a lot less popular then he used to be, him winning a primary over Mandel still wouldn't be that hard.

Not with a 4 way primary for governor. I dont see a world where Kasich wins a statewide GOP primary for anything right now.

That's not how semi-open works. All the Ds who hadn't voted in a primary before -- and there were lots -- are now stuck as registered Rs. They have to sit out the '18 primaries to go back to neutral before they can vote in the D primaries.

Also, Strickland's early stage dementia can't be underplayed. It was quite sad.

actually you are very incorrect on how a semi-open primary works. No one who votes in any primary is forced to sit out. Ohio is semi-open, because it requires you to change your party affiliation to vote in the primary, however Ohio changes its affiliation by voting in primaries, in ANY partisan primary. You can vote in either D or R primaries in Ohio, you just become a D or R based on which ballot you request.