Who would have been the 1996 GOP Presidential Nominee had Dan Quayle run?

[BushKerry04]

Who would have been the 1996 GOP Presidential Nominee had Dan Quayle run?

Quayle had been defeated for re-election as Vice President in 1992 and was the last Republican Vice President by the time 1996 rolled around.

In my mind, either of the following would have happened with a Quayle candidacy

1. Quayle would have taken an equal amount of establishment support from Dole as grassroots support from Phil Gramm, Lamar Alexander, Pat Buchanan, and Steve Forbes.

2. Quayle would be the overwhelming favorite of both the establishment and conservative wings of the party. He is more conservative than Bob Dole, but still would have had establishment support since he was the last Republican Vice President.

3. No one would have taken him seriously, like in 2000. He would have been seen as gaffe-prone and unelectable.

My guess is #1. Quayle would have hurt Dole, but not enough to cost him the nomination. He also would have hurt Buchanan because Quayle is liked amongst social conservatives. Forbes and Gramm would have been helped by Quayle since Quayle's appeal was never economic/fiscal.

[TaylorFillmore]

I think your hunch is probably right. Quayle was never respected enough amongst the establishment of the party to really threaten Dole's primary lead. If anything, Quayle hurts the party by staying in longer than Buchanan did against Dole.