Where will the Dem nominee win by more in 2020?

[mieastwick]

I suspect Orange County, again, even if Trump improves in Orange County among all demographics. The Hispanic population growth there is tremendous.

[Technocracy Timmy]

New Mexico.

President Pence will win my home county (worst case scenario he keeps it close) by bringing home a lot of college educate country club republicans who had trouble voting for Trump and by not being toxic as hell to Hispanics and Asian immigrants.

He'll lose New Mexico by roughly 5 points though.

[MT Treasurer]

Almost certainly Orange County.

[JA]

Almost certainly Orange County New Mexico.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Almost certainly Orange County.

Hillary Clinton was a relatively safe option in the minds of many country club Republican voters here (assuming they didn't leave the ballot blank or vote for Johnson) since they associate her with her centrist husband and didn't think she would be a left wing populist.

But if the Democrats nominate somebody like Sherrod Brown, Warren, Franken, etc. who emphasizes more left wing populist rhetoric and actually seems committed towards these kinds of policies then they will definitely come out in full force against the Democratic candidate. And that looks like it's very likely to happen.

[MT Treasurer]

Almost certainly Orange County.

Hillary Clinton was a relatively safe option in the minds of many country club Republican voters (assuming they didn't leave the ballot blank or vote for Johnson) here since they associate her with her centrist husband and didn't think she would be a left wing populist.

But if the Democrats nominate somebody like Sherrod Brown, Warren, Franken, etc. who emphasizes more left wing populist rhetoric then they will definitely come out in full force against the Democratic candidate. And that's look like it's very likely to happen.

Eh, I doubt it, plus the area is trending D in general. I think the Democratic nominee has a good chance of winning 66% of the vote in CA in 2020, especially if it's someone like Harris, Biden or Booker. I'm not saying that all suburbs will continue to trend D, but Orange County will only become more and more D IMO.

I don't see NM trending much more D, though, especially without Johnson on the ballot. I also doubt that Trump will do worse among Hispanics in 2020.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Almost certainly Orange County.

Hillary Clinton was a relatively safe option in the minds of many country club Republican voters (assuming they didn't leave the ballot blank or vote for Johnson) here since they associate her with her centrist husband and didn't think she would be a left wing populist.

But if the Democrats nominate somebody like Sherrod Brown, Warren, Franken, etc. who emphasizes more left wing populist rhetoric then they will definitely come out in full force against the Democratic candidate. And that's look like it's very likely to happen.

Eh, I doubt it, plus the area is trending D in general. I think the Democratic nominee has a good chance of winning 66% of the vote in CA in 2020, especially if it's someone like Harris, Biden or Booker. I'm not saying that all suburbs will continue to trend D, but Orange County will only become more and more D IMO.

I don't see NM trending much more D, though, especially without Johnson on the ballot. I also doubt that Trump will do worse among Hispanics in 2020.

The D trend comes from our growing diversity and a lot of nevertrump republicans. With Pence on the ballot for President and a left wing populist candidate, every single republican in Orange County and their grandmother will be out to vote for President Pence in 2020. And Pence will not be anywhere near as toxic to the Latino and Asian American communities that are situated here as Trump was.

A lot of country club republicans here didn't vote for Trump because he was too economically populist. Wait till they get to see the Democratic Party and it's nominee in 2020; they'll come running home quickly.

Income and wealth are pretty big differentiators between Orange County and New Mexico which makes keeping it D in the future a pain in the ass for the Democrats.

[TDAS04]

Hard to say.  I'll guess New Mexico.

[MT Treasurer]

The D trend comes from our growing diversity and a lot of nevertrump republicans. With Pence on the ballot for President and a left wing populist candidate, every single republican in Orange County and their grandmother will be out to vote for President Pence in 2020. And Pence will not be anywhere near as toxic to the Latino and Asian American communities that are situated here as Trump was.

I don't think this will happen, though. Pence isn't going to be president in 2020 and the Democrats will try to nominate a candidate who can appeal to both the Midwest and places like Orange County, GA-06, Fairfax County, etc. - probably someone like Biden. Whether this works is an entirely different question and will depend on Trump's campaign and his approval ratings, but the idea that Democrats will concede areas like Orange County and just focus on the Midwest and White working class voters is ridiculous IMO.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The D trend comes from our growing diversity and a lot of nevertrump republicans. With Pence on the ballot for President and a left wing populist candidate, every single republican in Orange County and their grandmother will be out to vote for President Pence in 2020. And Pence will not be anywhere near as toxic to the Latino and Asian American communities that are situated here as Trump was.

I don't think this will happen, though. Pence isn't going to be president in 2020 and the Democrats will try to nominate a candidate who can appeal to both the Midwest and places like Orange County, GA-06, Fairfax County, etc. - probably someone like Biden. Whether this works is an entirely different question and will depend on Trump's campaign and his approval ratings, but the idea that Democrats will concede areas like Orange County and just focus on the Midwest and White working class voters is ridiculous IMO.

Pence will almost surely be President by 2020. Trump is the oldest President ever elected to a first term, he sleeps poorly (although reportedly he has always functioned with little sleep), doesn't eat well, not in the best shape, etc. so health will be a big concern moving forward.

He's also in the most stressful job in America with zero political experience. At least Eisenhower was a WWII general. Trump has just recently indicated in a Reuters interview that he loved his previous life and we're not even 4 months in but he's saying that out loud. How much longer will a 70 year old man with a big ego stay in a highly stressful job that he hates with half the country disliking him? Not long I would imagine.

And I haven't even gotten to the potential scandals Trump could face. His entire life has been defined by being a controversial figure and living off media attention. Although compared to boredom and health, a scandal might be the least likely reason for a Trump resignation.

The Democratic base will choose the candidate. And by all accounts the base is craving somebody from the populist Left. Biden might run but he will be 77 on Election Day just a few months shy of 78...I doubt he runs in 2020. Who's left? Booker is gonna have an uphill battle trying to win the progressive wing, Harris and Governor Newsom will likely wait till 2024 if they seek a run. The only people left are those who would run a campaign based on winning back working class whites that have been bleeding from the Democratic Party.

Trying to win college educated upper income voters is a very tall order compared to working class voters. The latter group is far more swingable compared to the former who are more likely to be staunch partisans (be they left or right). And nobody will be targeting Orange County anyhow given the state that it's located in.

[MT Treasurer]

Let's just agree to disagree here, Timmy. I'm not convinced that the "the base will be craving somebody from the populist Left" - especially if they view Trump's "populism" as a failure. Either way, that person would have an extremely hard time doing better than Sanders in the South. That's not to say that I couldn't see someone like Franken or Warren winning the D nomination, but that wouldn't happen without the "Establishment" backing them.

[henster]

The D trend comes from our growing diversity and a lot of nevertrump republicans. With Pence on the ballot for President and a left wing populist candidate, every single republican in Orange County and their grandmother will be out to vote for President Pence in 2020. And Pence will not be anywhere near as toxic to the Latino and Asian American communities that are situated here as Trump was.

I don't think this will happen, though. Pence isn't going to be president in 2020 and the Democrats will try to nominate a candidate who can appeal to both the Midwest and places like Orange County, GA-06, Fairfax County, etc. - probably someone like Biden. Whether this works is an entirely different question and will depend on Trump's campaign and his approval ratings, but the idea that Democrats will concede areas like Orange County and just focus on the Midwest and White working class voters is ridiculous IMO.

Pence will almost surely be President by 2020. Trump is the oldest President ever elected to a first term, he sleeps poorly (although reportedly he has always functioned with little sleep), doesn't eat well, not in the best shape, etc. so health will be a big concern moving forward.

He's also in the most stressful job in America with zero political experience. At least Eisenhower was a WWII general. Trump has just recently indicated in a Reuters interview that he loved his previous life and we're not even 4 months in but he's saying that out loud. How much longer will a 70 year old man with a big ego stay in a highly stressful job that he hates with half the country disliking him? Not long I would imagine.

And I haven't even gotten to the potential scandals Trump could face. His entire life has been defined by being a controversial figure and living off media attention. Although compared to boredom and health, a scandal might be the least likely reason for a Trump resignation.

The Democratic base will choose the candidate. And by all accounts the base is craving somebody from the populist Left. Biden might run but he will be 77 on Election Day just a few months shy of 78...I doubt he runs in 2020. Who's left? Booker is gonna have an uphill battle trying to win the progressive wing, Harris and Governor Newsom will likely wait till 2024 if they seek a run. The only people left are those who would run a campaign based on winning back working class whites that have been bleeding from the Democratic Party.

Trying to win college educated upper income voters is a very tall order compared to working class voters. The latter group is far more swingable compared to the former who are more likely to be staunch partisans (be they left or right). And nobody will be targeting Orange County anyhow given the state that it's located in.

If things are so bad that Pence is President then 2020 will be a landslide for Dems.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Let's just agree to disagree here, Timmy. I'm not convinced that the "the base will be craving somebody from the populist Left" - especially if they view Trump's "populism" as a failure. Either way, that person would have an extremely hard time doing better than Sanders in the South. That's not to say that I couldn't see someone like Franken or Warren winning the D nomination, but that wouldn't happen without the "Establishment" backing them.

Ok but Trump so far has been governing basically like a Reagan Republican and has largely given up on the economically populist angle (besides killing a trade deal that was unlikely to pass).

If things are so bad that Pence is President then 2020 will be a landslide for Dems.

Depends largely on why Trump resigned, the state of the economy, foreign affairs, etc.

Coolidge managed to win in spite of his predecessor, Harding, being stuffed full of scandals. Ford came incredibly close to winning in 76' and if he had 30,000 more votes in Mississippi and Ohio then Carter would've been defeated. Al Gore won the popular vote and nearly the election in Florida despite Clinton being impeached as well.

This country going all the way back 116 years has given the incumbent Party at least a single second chance in the White House. Carter and the Democrats were the only exception to the rule. Bush I was trying to win a 4th term for the Republican Party in 1992 and Truman declined to seek a second term but would've been trying for a 6th consecutive White House term for the Democrats in 1952 if he had ran.

The Republican candidate has a strong chance of winning in 2020.