Atlas Demographic Survey: Your 2016 Precinct Swing (Read Question)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Are you using these statistics for anything meaningful?  Because it's pretty strawpoll.

Nah, of course not Just for fun. For one, you always got people talking bout how /even the Republicans/ around them are "sane Republicans" (or something along those lines). Figured we'd see that in action here despite the opposing national swing, but I was curious about any oddities around here coming from the realignment. And you get to learn a bit more about the people who publicly post in the process!

Torie's post is probably one of the most telling thus far, and it's the pattern you see in a lot of places. In Philadelphia, Romney was known for getting zero votes in many precincts so there was no direction to go but up, so there's an intriguing pattern we have fewer posters to tell us about - the 90% Clinton districts that still swung Republican. So thanks for playing, you and all!

[BuckeyeNut]

Current +1.48% Democratic swing from 2012.

Trump: 9.82%
Clinton: 88.36%
Johnson: 0.91%
Stein: 0.68%

Permanent +2.29% Democratic swing from 2012.

Trump: 19.89%
Clinton: 71.91%
Johnson: 6.29%
Stein: 1.46%

Hometown +6.30% Republican swing from 2012.

Trump: 45.78%
Clinton: 48%
Johnson: 6.22%
Stein: 0%

Infancy +2.77% Libertarian swing from 2012.

Trump: 54.55%
Clinton: 40.66%
Johnson: 4.04%
Stein: 0%

[Boston Bread]

Precinct that I voted in:
2011: Conservative +47 over NDP
2015: Conservative +13 over Liberal

Precinct my parents currently live in:
2011: Conservative +21 over Liberal
2015: Liberal +19 over Conservative

Precinct I currently live in for school:
2011: Liberal +10 over NDP
2015: Liberal +48 over NDP

The swings look big, but that's just par for the course for Canada.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Mine swung 1.2% D

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Republican      MITT ROMNEY AND PAUL RYAN   162   8.15%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      BARACK OBAMA AND JOE BIDEN   1711   86.07%   
Libertarian Party      GARY JOHNSON AND JIM GRAY   51   2.57%   
Socialist Workers Party      JAMES HARRIS AND MAURA DELUCA   3   0.15%   
Constitution Party      VIRGIL GOODE AND JIM CLYMER   0   0.00%   
Constitutional Government      DEAN MORSTAD AND JOSH FRANKE-HYLAND   2   0.10%   
Green Party      JILL STEIN AND CHERI HONKALA   37   1.86%   
Grassroots Party      JIM CARLSON AND GEORGE MCMAHON   1   0.05%   
Socialism and Liberation      PETA LINDSAY AND YARI OSORIO   0   0.00%   
Justice Party      ROSS C. "ROCKY" ANDERSON AND LUIS J. RODRIGUEZ   1   0.05%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   20   1.01%   

Republican      Donald J. Trump and Michael R. Pence   145   7.13%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine   1673   82.25%   
Constitution Party      Darrell Castle and Scott Bradley   2   0.10%   
Legal Marijuana Now      Dan R. Vacek and Mark Elworth, Jr.   14   0.69%   
Socialist Workers Party      Alyson Kennedy and Osborne Hart   6   0.30%   
Green Party      Jill Stein and Howie Hawkins   98   4.82%   
American Delta Party      "Rocky" Roque De La Fuente and Michael Steinberg   0   0.00%   
Independence      Evan McMullin and Nathan Johnson   21   1.03%   
Libertarian Party      Gary Johnson and William Weld   51   2.51%   
Write-In      WRITE-IN**   24   1.18%   

Using the UK's swing formulary, that's R+1.4 I guess.

[NOVA Green]

What if one is currently homeless?

Literally been living in hotels and periodically with friends and family since I was laid off...

Now we both have jobs and are finalizing getting a lease on an apartment....

I could provide tons of precinct level data for various communities where I have lived within the past eight months....

How should the homeless vote, even within the context of your survey? 

Not an abstract question but personal....

Thks....

I don't know the rules state-by-state but generally it is supposed to be in a space where the most time is spent (marked on a map if no address is necessarily applicable). If you were registered as of the election date. you can simply use that precinct you voted from. It is very subjective.

Ok--- fair enough....

1.) Portland- Oregon--- Upper Middle Class West Portland renting a one bedroom off a split level house---

This is the precinct where I cast my VbM ballot for the 11/16 GE....

2012: (79-18 D)     +61 D
2016: (82-10 D)     +72 D    (+11% D Swing)

2.) Seaside Oregon precinct--- working class/tourist coastal town

2012: (56-41 D)     +15 D
2016: (51-37 D)     +14 D     (+1% R Swing)

3.) Corvallis Oregon precinct--- Middle/Working Class with small student population

2012: (63-32 D)     +31 D
2016: (61-24 D)     +37 D     (+6% D Swing)

4.) Albany---Low Income/Working Class Precinct

2012: (48- 44 D)    +4 D
2016: (38- 44 R)    +6 R       (+10% R Swing)

I can also pull up day from places where I have lived in the past six months, including Astoria, Newport, Eugene, and Keizer Oregon, but focused on the places where I have "lived", and not included precincts where I "lived for less than two weeks or more,

[Intell]

Chelsea Ward (1-3), Massachusetts, Predominately Hispanic Working Class Area

2.86% swing to Trump

2012 Vote

Obama: 85.75%
Romney: 13.32%

2016 Vote

Clinton: 82.33%
Trump: 12.75%
Johnson: 3.13%

Los Angeles, Pasadena (State: California)
County: Los Angeles
Precinct: 0200025B

2012-16 Swing: +14.07% to Trump

Areas of service orientated jobs, plurality white (waitressing, and a lower-middle class population.)

Clinton: 77.95%
Trump: 16.39%
Stein: 2.77%
Johnson: 2.65%
McMullin: 0%
Castle: 0%
Sanders: 0%

2012

Obama: 86.78%
Romney: 11.14%
Johnson: 1.04%
Stein: 0.74%

[Coolface Sock #42069]

2012: Romney 75, Obama 23: Romney + 52
2016: Trump 51, Clinton 41, Johnson 3: Trump + 10

Swing: D + 42

For Clinton to be competitive in an exurban area like the area I live is just mind-boggling. That she could do it while losing the election is insane.

[Vosem]

Current precinct where I've lived for past year and a half or so:
2012: Obama 62, Romney 35
2016: Clinton 70, Trump 24
Swing: Clinton+19

Precinct during much of 2015:
2012: Obama 72, Romney 26
2016: Trump 73, Clinton 22 -- though precinct boundaries altered massively in this area for no apparent reason, to the extent that, eyeballing the boundaries, that it went from predominantly inner-city to predominantly rural. I'd presume given the demographics that the area did swing to Trump, but not like that
Swing: Trump+97

Precinct I lived in during high school:
2012: Romney 56, Obama 44
2016: Clinton 49, Trump 48
Swing: Clinton+13

Precinct I went to high school in:
2012: Romney 50, Obama 49
2016: Clinton 51, Trump 45
Swing: Clinton+7

Precinct I lived in when I learned English (haven't been there since 2005, but my Illinois avatar reflects this place):
2012: Obama 52, Romney 46
2016: Clinton 61, Trump 33
Swing: Clinton+22

Precinct I lived in in NYC:
2012: Obama 53, Romney 46
2016: Clinton 53, Trump 43
Swing: Clinton+3

Used the first total for current precinct and the third for "home" precinct.