Less likely to be reelected: Cruz or Warren

[daveosupremo]

?

[ApatheticAustrian]

ted cruz.

cause of the primary.

curt schilling is.....not real.

[GlobeSoc]

Ted Cruz for favorables and that he could theoritically go down if Latinos spam the polls while republicans abstain, while Warren has no such group that could doom her barring implosion.

[Dereich]

Cruz, but only because the election will be a Republican president's midterm.

[Jeppe]

Cruz.

Trump won Texas by 9%, Hillary won Massachusetts by 27%.

[Blackacre]

Cruz. Neither Senator is that likely to lose reelection, but Cruz is more vulnerable than Warren for a few reasons.

One, his seat is more likely to be targeted. Republicans aren't targeting Elizabeth Warren.

Two, Texas trended Democratic last election, being one of the few states to swing to Clinton. (Massachusetts was another) Trump won Texas by 9 points; HRC won Massachusetts by 27. Massachusetts is more Democratic than Texas is Republican.

Three, and this relates to the above point, 2018 is likely to be favourable to the Democrats nationally. Midterms usually favour the out of power party, and Trump's approvals have only gone down since he took office. Trump's approvals would need to rise by 15 points or more (from 42.6 according to 538) by November 2018 to avoid midterm losses in the House. Consider 2008 vs 2010. Obama won Wisconsin by nearly 14 points in 2008, but the state went on to elect a Republican Senator in 2010. That's a much bigger swing than would be needed to take out Cruz.

Fourth and finally, the general election is not the only way for a politician to lose reelex. Cruz is more likely to be primaried than Warren simply because Cruz is much more disliked by his own party than Warren is.

In 2018, Massachusetts is Titanium D. Texas is only Likely R. More likely than not, they will both win reelex, but if a time traveler told me that one of them was going to go, I'd bet on it being Cruz.

[President Johnson]

Cruz. Neither Senator is that likely to lose reelection, but Cruz is more vulnerable than Warren for a few reasons.

One, his seat is more likely to be targeted. Republicans aren't targeting Elizabeth Warren.

Two, Texas trended Democratic last election, being one of the few states to swing to Clinton. (Massachusetts was another) Trump won Texas by 9 points; HRC won Massachusetts by 27. Massachusetts is more Democratic than Texas is Republican.

Three, and this relates to the above point, 2018 is likely to be favourable to the Democrats nationally. Midterms usually favour the out of power party, and Trump's approvals have only gone down since he took office. Trump's approvals would need to rise by 15 points or more (from 42.6 according to 538) by November 2018 to avoid midterm losses in the House. Consider 2008 vs 2010. Obama won Wisconsin by nearly 14 points in 2008, but the state went on to elect a Republican Senator in 2010. That's a much bigger swing than would be needed to take out Cruz.

Fourth and finally, the general election is not the only way for a politician to lose reelex. Cruz is more likely to be primaried than Warren simply because Cruz is much more disliked by his own party than Warren is.

In 2018, Massachusetts is Titanium D. Texas is only Likely R. More likely than not, they will both win reelex, but if a time traveler told me that one of them was going to go, I'd bet on it being Cruz.

This.

However, Massachusetts is likely Republican in the governor's race. Only titanium D in the senate election. There will be a lot of vote splitting since Gov. Baker is very popular.

[Blackacre]

Cruz. Neither Senator is that likely to lose reelection, but Cruz is more vulnerable than Warren for a few reasons.

One, his seat is more likely to be targeted. Republicans aren't targeting Elizabeth Warren.

Two, Texas trended Democratic last election, being one of the few states to swing to Clinton. (Massachusetts was another) Trump won Texas by 9 points; HRC won Massachusetts by 27. Massachusetts is more Democratic than Texas is Republican.

Three, and this relates to the above point, 2018 is likely to be favourable to the Democrats nationally. Midterms usually favour the out of power party, and Trump's approvals have only gone down since he took office. Trump's approvals would need to rise by 15 points or more (from 42.6 according to 538) by November 2018 to avoid midterm losses in the House. Consider 2008 vs 2010. Obama won Wisconsin by nearly 14 points in 2008, but the state went on to elect a Republican Senator in 2010. That's a much bigger swing than would be needed to take out Cruz.

Fourth and finally, the general election is not the only way for a politician to lose reelex. Cruz is more likely to be primaried than Warren simply because Cruz is much more disliked by his own party than Warren is.

In 2018, Massachusetts is Titanium D. Texas is only Likely R. More likely than not, they will both win reelex, but if a time traveler told me that one of them was going to go, I'd bet on it being Cruz.

This.

However, Massachusetts is likely Republican in the governor's race. Only titanium D in the senate election. There will be a lot of vote splitting since Gov. Baker is very popular.

This is true, but since the state has not lost the art of ticket splitting, it won't effect Warren in any noticeable way

[Suburbia]

Cruz.

[Xing]

Cruz, but both will almost certainly win.

[The_Doctor]

By definition, Cruz. Texas was +9 R, while MA was +30 D. Massachusetts is not likely to seat a Republican Senator in the Trump era, while traditionally, red states are more likely to send opposition figures to Washington. Texas is also developing considerable blue strength in certain urban and suburban areas, so Cruz could be more vulnerable, either in 2018 (or more likely, 2024).

[7,052,770]

Cruz could easily go down in a primary assuming Trump endorses a challenger.

[TDAS04]

Cruz, but both will almost certainly win.

[Blackacre]

4 people voted Warren, Im interested in hearing why

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Warren. Cruz's connections with Goldman Sachs give him an inside line of the cabal that runs the government - just ask Trumpy!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trashy ted

[smoltchanov]

Cruz. By far.... I see almost no circumstances where Warren is defeated, but a lot of such situations for Cruz....

[SWE]

Cruz obviously won't lose, but it's possible to envision a perfect storm where he does go down, and that's not even considering the possibility of him losing his primary. Warren, on the other hand, is about as safe as an incumbent can be.