Which of these states are actually fool's gold?

[Rjjr77]

Gary Johnson also took votes from Hillary Clinton, and Trump only won it by 5 points. It could possibly flip.

He didn't take that many votes from Hillary Clinton as she was close to Obama's previous totals.

Georgia almost flipped in 96, it hasn't shown a trend of going D since then. 200k margin of victory appears to be the republicans current floor.

You mean like Wisconsin and Michigan were supposed to be Safe D? And Clinton got 3% less of the vote than Obama and Johnson took some young voters from Clinton.

3% less vote yes, but 100,000 more total votes.

We can say Johnson took some young voters from Clinton in Georgia  but we don't really have proof of that just conjecture.

I'm not saying Georgia couldn't flip, but there's no sign it will.
Wisconsin and Michigan did show some GOP trending with their midterm elections, but more importantly third parties played a huge factor there.
Trump actually got less votes in WI than Romney.

And all of them, Romney/Clinton/Trump got less votes than both Bush and Kerry. That doesn't really show GOP trending, just turnout issues for the dems when the Dem candidate attempts to court republicans instead of the traditional dem base in states like that.

I'm assuming you mean in Wisconsin. Not Georgia

[Pericles]

Total votes were only the same because of population changes between 2012 and 2016 and slight changes in turnout.

[Sumner 1868]

Texas isn't flipping.

[DK_Mo82]

None. It will be hard for the Democrrats to win Texas in 2020 but Hillary did a very good job, got like same % as Ohio, and demographically the State is going where the Democrats want to go.  The Democrats need to invest big in Texas because the reasons to believe are real, Democratic power centres already exist in the state and if ever added to the national election coalition the payoff is big

[Roronoa D. Law]

Gary Johnson also took votes from Hillary Clinton, and Trump only won it by 5 points. It could possibly flip.

He didn't take that many votes from Hillary Clinton as she was close to Obama's previous totals.

Georgia almost flipped in 96, it hasn't shown a trend of going D since then. 200k margin of victory appears to be the republicans current floor.

You mean like Wisconsin and Michigan were supposed to be Safe D? And Clinton got 3% less of the vote than Obama and Johnson took some young voters from Clinton.

3% less vote yes, but 100,000 more total votes.

We can say Johnson took some young voters from Clinton in Georgia  but we don't really have proof of that just conjecture.

I'm not saying Georgia couldn't flip, but there's no sign it will.
Wisconsin and Michigan did show some GOP trending with their midterm elections, but more importantly third parties played a huge factor there.
Trump actually got less votes in WI than Romney.

Johnson won 6% of 18-24 and 30-39. CNN exit poll show that if there was only two names on the ballot the margin is only 1 point for Trump.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

NOTA. Why are we still seriously dicussing "fools' gold"?

The closest are Colorado Virginia and Texas though.

[Rjjr77]

Gary Johnson also took votes from Hillary Clinton, and Trump only won it by 5 points. It could possibly flip.

He didn't take that many votes from Hillary Clinton as she was close to Obama's previous totals.

Georgia almost flipped in 96, it hasn't shown a trend of going D since then. 200k margin of victory appears to be the republicans current floor.

You mean like Wisconsin and Michigan were supposed to be Safe D? And Clinton got 3% less of the vote than Obama and Johnson took some young voters from Clinton.

3% less vote yes, but 100,000 more total votes.

We can say Johnson took some young voters from Clinton in Georgia  but we don't really have proof of that just conjecture.

I'm not saying Georgia couldn't flip, but there's no sign it will.
Wisconsin and Michigan did show some GOP trending with their midterm elections, but more importantly third parties played a huge factor there.
Trump actually got less votes in WI than Romney.

Johnson won 6% of 18-24 and 30-39. CNN exit poll show that if there was only two names on the ballot the margin is only 1 point for Trump.

Exit polls are notoriously unreliable.

4% also said they would not vote in a two way race, all third party candidates in total got less than 4%. If every single Gary Johnson voter voted for Hillary she still would not have won Georgia, and we know that was clearly not the case.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Exit polls are notoriously unreliable.

4% also said they would not vote in a two way race, all third party candidates in total got less than 4%. If every single Gary Johnson voter voted for Hillary she still would not have won Georgia, and we know that was clearly not the case.

Its GA not UT she would have won 2/3 of 3rd party vote. Politics is polarized here a protest vote in GA is staying home. Either way the Republican white vote is maxed and they're decreasing in voter share. When adjusted to turn out it hard to say GA is not trending Democrat unless Republican are doing better with Black voters.

[Rjjr77]

Exit polls are notoriously unreliable.

4% also said they would not vote in a two way race, all third party candidates in total got less than 4%. If every single Gary Johnson voter voted for Hillary she still would not have won Georgia, and we know that was clearly not the case.

Its GA not UT she would have won 2/3 of 3rd party vote. Politics is polarized here a protest vote in GA is staying home. Either way the Republican white vote is maxed and they're decreasing in voter share. When adjusted to turn out it hard to say GA is not trending Democrat unless Republican are doing better with Black voters.

There is absolutely nothing saying she would win 2/3rds of the vote. There is absolutely nothing showing Georgia going D, Trump did better than McCain there. Georgia trended D in 96, if the D's win something statewide maybe we can begin talking about it trending D, but there is nothing looking that way

[RaphaelDLG]

Exit polls are notoriously unreliable.

4% also said they would not vote in a two way race, all third party candidates in total got less than 4%. If every single Gary Johnson voter voted for Hillary she still would not have won Georgia, and we know that was clearly not the case.

Its GA not UT she would have won 2/3 of 3rd party vote. Politics is polarized here a protest vote in GA is staying home. Either way the Republican white vote is maxed and they're decreasing in voter share. When adjusted to turn out it hard to say GA is not trending Democrat unless Republican are doing better with Black voters.

There is absolutely nothing saying she would win 2/3rds of the vote. There is absolutely nothing showing Georgia going D, Trump did better than McCain there. Georgia trended D in 96, if the D's win something statewide maybe we can begin talking about it trending D, but there is nothing looking that way

This is a great point, actually.  For all the banging on on here about GA, at least Democrats have actually won something statewide from time to time in NC.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

TX, AZ, and GA for the Democrats

MN for the GOP.

[🕴🏼Melior🕴🏼]

AZ, GA, MN, NH, and TX

[pbrower2a]

Colorado and Virginia seem to be trending away from Republicans as their political cultures or demographics change. Minnesota is Minnesota. Donald Trump has to be an effective President and start cutting into core D support to win these states.

Wisconsin goes D if Scott Walker is defeated in re-election for Governor -- something I cannot predict on my current data.

Texas is the difference between about 400 EV for a Democrat and about 440. It goes D only in a landslide in which Georgia and Arizona go first.

[Bojack Horseman]

Texas and Minnesota.

[MeanBeanMachine]

Unhinged and out of touch so called pundits might think Texas is in play, but look at last time.  I don't think anyone on here believes Texas could be in play even in a Democrat landslide regardless of trends which don't go on forever.  Georgia has been a teaser the last 3 times and so has North Carolina.  They might be closer, but reality is more important than anything.  As for Arizona, Hillary Clinton kept the 44% tradition going.  Kerry, Obama twice, and now Hillary have all hit 44% there.  Unlike Kerry and Obama, Clinton actually put her heart and soul into it to do that well.  Also in our lifetimes has Arizona ever really been blue aside for a rare exception?  On the other side I'm having my doubts about Colorado and Virginia now.  We'll see next time if Kaine was a factor or not there.  If the trend in Virginia continues, it could be labeled as light blue.  Trump looked to be doing well in Colorado and I even had him winning the state, but lost by 3 or 4 points there?  Perhaps Colorado is light blue instead of purple or even purplish blue? 

One thing I'd like to add is Ohio!  The discussion can be had that Ohio and Pennsylvania are following the trends of West Virginia.  Even when Trump was losing big he still was on top in Ohio.  Will Ohio be light red from now on.


Lastly, I know many won't be able to comprehend this, but based on distance from center, Florida would be a teaser with all things being equal.  It is never center-left and even Obama struggled there in 2008.  I think 2000 is responsible for overestimating the closeness of Florida, but it is without a doubt very important and battleground.