How plausible is the electoral map?
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#1
Very plausible		  
#2
not very plausible		  
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Author Topic: How plausible is the electoral map?  (Read 867 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: August 12, 2016, 05:15:02 PM »
« edited: August 12, 2016, 05:19:57 PM by #TheShadowyAbyss »
Ignoring the shading, how plausible is this map?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2016, 05:17:41 PM »
Ignoring shades? More likely than most in a landslide scenario. My one objection is Georgia and South Carolina flipping before the far more elastic states of Indiana and Alaska.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2016, 05:19:37 PM »
Quote from: Committeeman Kingpoleon on August 12, 2016, 05:17:41 PM
Ignoring shades? More likely than most in a landslide scenario. My one objection is Georgia and South Carolina flipping before the far more elastic states of Indiana and Alaska.

Yeah, assume there are no shades here.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2016, 05:21:11 PM »
In a landslide scenario, decently plausible, though I'm not sure Utah would flip before Alaska.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2016, 05:24:36 PM »
It is plausible, but I would not say it's "very plausible."
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2016, 05:33:28 PM »
Plausible, but I think Hillary would win AK, MT, and NE-02 if she was winning Utah.
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Pyro
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2016, 05:34:30 PM »
Quote from: evergreenarbor on August 12, 2016, 05:33:28 PM
Plausible, but I think Hillary would win AK, MT, and NE-02 if she was winning Utah.

Came here to say this
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Wells
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2016, 05:36:19 PM »
Flip Utah and it's very possible.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2016, 05:37:18 PM »
Quote from: Pyro on August 12, 2016, 05:34:30 PM
Quote from: evergreenarbor on August 12, 2016, 05:33:28 PM
Plausible, but I think Hillary would win AK, MT, and NE-02 if she was winning Utah.

Came here to say this

In a landslide scenario.... (+15% Clinton)

I third the motion..... any nayes???
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OneJ
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2016, 05:53:57 PM »
Add MS and I would be very happy.
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AGA
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2016, 06:43:52 PM »
Quote from: OneJ_ on August 12, 2016, 05:53:57 PM
Add MS and I would be very happy.

Too inelastic of a state.
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DS0816
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2016, 11:08:57 PM »
Switch the color with Indiana.

In 2012, there was only a 0.27 percentage-points margin spread between Indiana, a Republican pickup for losing nominee Mitt Romney, and South Carolina. And it has been, over the last two presidential elections (2008, 2012) no more than 1.16 in spread from ex-bellwether Missouri.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2016, 11:09:42 PM »
IN flips before SC/UT.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2016, 11:11:19 PM »
Quote from: Rafe on August 12, 2016, 05:23:34 PM
Very, with the exception of the margins. Low Republican turnout coupled with third parties drawing GOP votes could allow Hillary Clinton to eke out wins in Utah, Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, and South Carolina--states where she has led or been within the MOE. Indiana has the Pence factor. She will probably get <50% in most of the blue states and a plurality in others if the third parties actually perform as strong as they're polling.  

What Pence factor? He's not popular. He was in a serious fight for re-election before withdrawing.

You actually need to be popular to have a home state bounce. If Hillary picked DWS as her running mate it would not make Florida safe D.
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2016, 11:55:06 PM »
Considering how liberal this forum is.. Not very plausible
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2016, 04:29:59 AM »
Remove Utah, South Carolina and Missouri from the Democratic column, then it's plausible.
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Lachi
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« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2016, 05:42:53 AM »

I don't think so, Indiana is inelastic.
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LLR
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« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2016, 07:18:29 AM »

Quote from: President Johnson on August 13, 2016, 04:29:59 AM
Remove Utah, South Carolina and Missouri from the Democratic column, then it's plausible.

Why? Why can't South Carolina flip? Can someone explain to me why South Carolina is less likely to flip than Indiana and Alaska or whatever y'all idiots are saying?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2016, 01:02:50 PM »

IN is far more elastic than SC is.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: August 13, 2016, 01:06:49 PM »
Quote from: LLR on August 13, 2016, 07:18:29 AM

Quote from: President Johnson on August 13, 2016, 04:29:59 AM
Remove Utah, South Carolina and Missouri from the Democratic column, then it's plausible.

Why? Why can't South Carolina flip? Can someone explain to me why South Carolina is less likely to flip than Indiana and Alaska or whatever y'all idiots are saying?

I think the burden of proof is on you to justify why an R+5 state that voted Democratic 8 years ago is less likely to flip than an R+8 state where Obama got blown out 8 years ago.

And for the love of god, do not mention the mediocre low energy loser Mike Pence who may not even have won re-election.
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