Should we take Ben Carson more seriously?

[The Mikado]

Just putting this out there.

[Maxwell]

Probably. There is a very real segment of voters that have faith in him, his organization is half a sham book selling organization but half a real campaign. I'd give him about 5% chance at the nomination, which is 5% more than I gave him before.

But he's still far behind Rubio (who the media adores), Trump (whose numbers still hover around 20%), or Cruz (who is, by a good margin, running the strongest long-run operation) in terms of a chance of the nomination.

[Ljube]

Cruz has no chance. He is too extreme and unelectable.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Cruz has no chance. He is too extreme and unelectable.

This is the GOP primary we are talking about. That doesn't matter.

[Ljube]

Cruz has no chance. He is too extreme and unelectable.

This is the GOP primary we are talking about. That doesn't matter.

It sure does. Republicans won't nominate someone perceived to be unelectable.

[Maxwell]

Cruz has no chance. He is too extreme and unelectable.

Cruz is not extreme in the GOP. If anything, it's Cruz's positions that are shaping the debate on the GOP side. Cruz is well within the mainstream of the GOP.

[Ljube]

Cruz has no chance. He is too extreme and unelectable.

Cruz is not extreme in the GOP. If anything, it's Cruz's positions that are shaping the debate on the GOP side. Cruz is well within the mainstream of the GOP.

I don't understand where you got that idea from. Cruz is a fringe candidate. He is not the mainstream of the GOP. Or are you just trolling?

[yankeesfan]

Cruz has no chance. He is too extreme and unelectable.

Cruz is not extreme in the GOP. If anything, it's Cruz's positions that are shaping the debate on the GOP side. Cruz is well within the mainstream of the GOP.

I don't understand where you got that idea from. Cruz is a fringe candidate. He is not the mainstream of the GOP. Or are you just trolling?

Cruz set up the dynamic that made Trump and Carson relevant.  He's the original anti-establishment, anti-Washington candidate.   

[Ljube]

Cruz has no chance. He is too extreme and unelectable.

Cruz is not extreme in the GOP. If anything, it's Cruz's positions that are shaping the debate on the GOP side. Cruz is well within the mainstream of the GOP.

I don't understand where you got that idea from. Cruz is a fringe candidate. He is not the mainstream of the GOP. Or are you just trolling?

Cruz set up the dynamic that made Trump and Carson relevant.  He's the original anti-establishment, anti-Washington candidate.   

Trump and Carson are moderates. Cruz is an extremist. Trump and Carson have nothing in common with Cruz.

[Famous Mortimer]

Cruz is a generic Republican.

[Maxwell]

Cruz has no chance. He is too extreme and unelectable.

Cruz is not extreme in the GOP. If anything, it's Cruz's positions that are shaping the debate on the GOP side. Cruz is well within the mainstream of the GOP.

I don't understand where you got that idea from. Cruz is a fringe candidate. He is not the mainstream of the GOP. Or are you just trolling?

Not at all trolling. Identify any differences between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz beyond immigration (which is not even that different anymore) and maybe tone. There are none. In 2012, Ted Cruz was a fringe candidate. In 2016, where he has largely moved the GOP voice, he is well within the party mainstream.

[Zacoftheaxes]

In the beginning of November 2011, Herman Cain had a few percentage points over Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry were in a statistical tie for third. Rick Santorum had less support than Michelle Bachmann.

That was when Iowa was in January. This time around it is in February. Ben Carson is getting a sh**t ton of media coverage (mostly for saying stupid sh**t) and therefore getting better name recognition. He is going to fall the same way Herman Cain did. Most of his supporters will either default back to past Iowa winners (Huckabee or Santorum) or find another fresh conservative darling (Cruz).

[Penelope]

Cruz has no chance. He is too extreme and unelectable.

Cruz is not extreme in the GOP. If anything, it's Cruz's positions that are shaping the debate on the GOP side. Cruz is well within the mainstream of the GOP.

I don't understand where you got that idea from. Cruz is a fringe candidate. He is not the mainstream of the GOP. Or are you just trolling?

Not at all trolling. Identify any differences between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz beyond immigration (which is not even that different anymore) and maybe tone. There are none. In 2012, Ted Cruz was a fringe candidate. In 2016, where he has largely moved the GOP voice, he is well within the party mainstream.

This. We have seen time and time again over the course of this campaign that the establishment has lost control of the movement; Rubio is only viewed as a possible "establishment" candidate because he can actually appeal to votes outside the conservative movement at large. Cruz and the other radicals of the Tea Party movement have effectively pushed the party establishment into an untenable position. We heard many times about the 'anti-Romney' or 'anti-establishment' candidates of the 2012 cycle, but this cycle has been dominated by a strong anti-establishment fervor that has left even very good, establishment-friendly candidates like Rubio polling at only 6-8% in a crowded field.

In the beginning of November 2011, Herman Cain had a few percentage points over Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry were in a statistical tie for third. Rick Santorum had less support than Michelle Bachmann.

That was when Iowa was in January. This time around it is in February. Ben Carson is getting a sh**t ton of media coverage (mostly for saying stupid sh**t) and therefore getting better name recognition. He is going to fall the same way Herman Cain did. Most of his supporters will either default back to past Iowa winners (Huckabee or Santorum) or find another fresh conservative darling (Cruz).

The comparison between Herman Cain and Ben Carson is a thin one. Cain shared the likability and earnestness of Carson, but Cain was thrust into the limelight of the primary fairly quickly and fell fairly quickly. All in all he was only in the spotlight for about a month, if I recall correctly. Cain's candidacy began to fall apart nearly the moment he was under any sort of scrutiny, yet Carson has been one of the more prominent non-Trump candidates for much of the campaign - at least since the FOX Debate in August.

I agree that Carson will fall apart, but he will be kicking by Iowa. If anything he could probably manage a Ron Paul-like showing there, if he does not win it outright.

[Famous Mortimer]

Cain only collapsed because he had multiple affairs. All the stupid stuff he said never hurt his numbers. Just like all the stupid stuff Carson says never hurts his numbers. They are very comparable.

[Torie]

Of course. In the end, I think the odds are low he will get the nomination, but what I think will happen in this primary season so far has been about precisely the opposite of what has happened. So that suggests that perhaps he has the nomination in the bag. I'm the new Dick Morris!

[Xing]

More seriously as a contender for the Republican nomination, or more seriously as a politician?

[Lief 🗽]

The problem with the Cain analogy is that we never got to see Cain's campaign fully play out. It was consumed by numerous allegations of infidelity (he survived the first allegation and remained at the top of the polls; it was only in the weeks after when more reports came out that he finally started to drop). Cain was also more of a national phenomenon, while Carson seems to have built a real base of support in Iowa, in addition to his national support.

[Asian Nazi]

People keep comparing Carson to Cain (I WONDER WHY?!), but I think Santorum/Huckabee are the more apt analogies here.  The only reason why he's winning is because the non-evangelical vote is split between a gajillion candidates.  That said, if he can stay relevant long enough and win a couple states, he might be able to win over some of the Rand Paul/Huckabee/Santorum socon wingnuts and have a viable shot at finishing #2 nationally behind Rubio.

[Zacoftheaxes]

In the beginning of November 2011, Herman Cain had a few percentage points over Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry were in a statistical tie for third. Rick Santorum had less support than Michelle Bachmann.

That was when Iowa was in January. This time around it is in February. Ben Carson is getting a sh**t ton of media coverage (mostly for saying stupid sh**t) and therefore getting better name recognition. He is going to fall the same way Herman Cain did. Most of his supporters will either default back to past Iowa winners (Huckabee or Santorum) or find another fresh conservative darling (Cruz).

A bombardment of women are going to publicly accuse him of sexual harassment and infidelity?  And then he'll respond to it in a way that makes it clear the allegations are true and him appear weak?  The lack of imagination in the rest of your prognostication leaves a lot to be desired.

Most Republicans didn't believe the allegations, hell, his donations went up after the news came out. During all the going on he had a series of weak debate performances and a lot of people took a more critical look at his 9-9-9 plan and saw it didn't hold up.

Even if there somehow needs to be a scandal to derail Carson, he is absolutely a snake oil salesman: http://www.ibtimes.com/what-mannatech-ben-carson-connected-controversial-supplement-company-gop-debate-2161884

[Türkisblau]

Why did the Republicans take Cain, a multi-millionaire black businessman seriously while the Democrats have ignored Dr. Willie Wilson, another multi-millionaire black businessman?

Is it because the Democrats are the real racists?

[Fuzzy Bear]

People keep comparing Carson to Cain (I WONDER WHY?!), but I think Santorum/Huckabee are the more apt analogies here.  The only reason why he's winning is because the non-evangelical vote is split between a gajillion candidates.  That said, if he can stay relevant long enough and win a couple states, he might be able to win over some of the Rand Paul/Huckabee/Santorum socon wingnuts and have a viable shot at finishing #2 nationally behind Rubio.

Carson is a folk hero among religious conservatives, and has been for 20 years.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

This. We have seen time and time again over the course of this campaign that the establishment has lost control of the movement; Rubio is only viewed as a possible "establishment" candidate because he can actually appeal to votes outside the conservative movement at large. Cruz and the other radicals of the Tea Party movement have effectively pushed the party establishment into an untenable position. We heard many times about the 'anti-Romney' or 'anti-establishment' candidates of the 2012 cycle, but this cycle has been dominated by a strong anti-establishment fervor that has left even very good, establishment-friendly candidates like Rubio polling at only 6-8% in a crowded field.

The polling and media have been dominated by a strongly anti-establishment tone, which happens to get ratings. The funding is controlled mostly by a handful of billionaires, and the voting hasn't happened yet. While I have zero desire to be a "poll truther", to the best of my memory polls this far out have not been accurate in recent Republican nomination contests. I think this will be another cycle where, in 6 or 12 months, we all look back and go, "wow, remember when we thought this was going to be a crazy primary season?"

And it will have been something of a crazy season, but nothing quite so crazy in retrospect as we are all (mostly) anticipating.

P.S. The endorsement primary, whatever it may count for, is looking pretty typical too. Carson has no major endorsements, afaik.

[Ljube]

Posts made by Democrats (with the notable exception of Lief) in this thread show that they still do not understand the Carson phenomenon and are quick to compare him to Cain (sexual predator) or Huckabee and Santorum (social conservative extremists).

Huckabee and Santorum are candidates of one wing of the party and have a relatively low ceiling of support. Hence, they are unelectable even in the primaries, let alone in the general election.

Carson controls that same wing of the party, but because he is a moderate and a peacemaker, he also has strong support from the moderates. And I don't mean moderates in the sense of Torie. Torie is a rich Republican elitist. Member of the Establishment. These people will never support Carson, because they don't understand him. They will sooner support Hillary. I am talking about regular folks who are mostly moderate (i.e. not extreme either socially or economically). These people also like compromise and moving forward and dislike gridlock. That is why Cruz will never get these votes.