Sen. Evan Bayh (D) vs George W. Bush (R) - 2004

[Moooooo]

After some speculation, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana decides to jump into the 2004 primary.

Iowa

In a suprising come from behind victory in Iowa, Evan Bayh leap frogs Howard Dean and John Kerry into the number one slot.

New Hampshire

Bayh's come from behind 1st place finish in the Iowa Caucus propels him into a strong second place finish in the New Hampshire primary.  John Kerry wins the New Hampshire Primary.

The rest of the 2004 primary

Bayh goes on to sweep the remaining primary states with the exception of Vermont (Howard Dean) and Massachusetts (John Kerry).

Bayh selects his VP...

All rumors lead to a Bayh/Kerry ticket, but in the end Evan Bayh selects Rep. Dick Gephardt as his VP.

The Ticket:

President:  Evan Bayh
Vice President:  Dick Gephardt
------------------------------------------

PV?
EV (Maps)?
How does the election play out?
What is the focus/campaign-strategy of both candidates.

[Defarge]

Evan Bayh/Dick Gephardt - 306 Electoral Votes
George Bush/Dick Cheney -  232 Electoral Votes

Bayh focuses primarily on the economy.  Without a Swift Boat Veterans for Truth etc. scandal, Bayh quickly builds up a small lead over Bush in the polls.  This lead holds for the rest of the campaign.  Able to prevent a massive blowout in the rural vote, Bayh wins the election, holding the Kerry states, and adding WV, Ohio, Indiana, and MO.  Missouri is extremely close.  NH could go either way, but for now I'll keep it in the Bayh column.

[Democratic Hawk]

Evan Bayh/Dick Gephardt - 306 Electoral Votes
George Bush/Dick Cheney -  232 Electoral Votes

Bayh focuses primarily on the economy.  Without a Swift Boat Veterans for Truth etc. scandal, Bayh quickly builds up a small lead over Bush in the polls.  This lead holds for the rest of the campaign.  Able to prevent a massive blowout in the rural vote, Bayh wins the election, holding the Kerry states, and adding WV, Ohio, Indiana, and MO.  Missouri is extremely close.  NH could go either way, but for now I'll keep it in the Bayh column.

Bayh would have won. He'd have carried Missouri, Ohio and Indiana (just). I think he'd have held New Mexico too. Bayh's moderate enough not to have alienated social conservatives to the extent that Kerry did

Dave

[Alcon]

Bayh/Bayh.

Changes would have been Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, and New Mexico. Florida would have been close.

The regional thing aside, New Mexico is a very Third Way kind of state in my eyes.

Oh, and Nevada would change, too.

[opebo]

I think it would look like this:

[Rob]

Bayh/Bayh, of course.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

[PBrunsel]

Not really much different from 2000.

[Akno21]

Why would Bayh do worse than Al Gore?

Kerry almost won, and Bayh wouldn't have any of the Swift Boat stuff, or the liberal from Massachusetts labels.

[phk]

Kerry states + Iowa + Ohio sound good to me.

[PBrunsel]

Why would Bayh do worse than Al Gore?

Kerry almost won, and Bayh wouldn't have any of the Swift Boat stuff, or the liberal from Massachusetts labels.

I made that map solely to annoy you, and I succeeded. Thanks for playing Akno.

[King]

The south would have been a little closer.

[Keystone Phil]

Bayh - 300
Bush - 238

Bayh wouldn't win Indiana but it would but a lot closer.

[A18]

Bush / Bush

Down 6-8 points after the GOP convention, Bayh never recovers in the debates. Bush heads into election day with the momentum, and the far-left socialist loses by a substantial margin:

[A18]

The GOP obviously wins his Senate seat unless he runs for it at the same time. Bush coattails win the Colorado Senate race for the Republicans as well.

Senate is split 57-42-1. House races play out about the same: 235-199-1.

Popular vote is 54-45.

Electoral count is GOP 362, Dem 176.

[True Democrat]

Bayh: 52%, 312
Bush: 47%, 226

Swing towards Bayh: Pennsylvania, Delaware, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, West Virginia, entire South including Florida and Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona Nevada, California, and Alaska

All else swing towards Bush.  I think he would have had a serious chance at New Jersey with Bayh on the ticket.

[Democratic Hawk]

Bush / Bush

Down 6-8 points after the GOP convention, Bayh never recovers in the debates. Bush heads into election day with the momentum, and the far-left socialist loses by a substantial margin:

Yeah right!

Bayh could very well have carried the entire Mid-West bar Kentucky. In the context, of Bayh versus Bush, Bayh, unlike the liberal Kerry, would have been the mainstream candidate and Bush primarily that of the Right. Bayh would have built a formidable coalition of moderates, moderate conservatives and liberals. Furthermore, Bayh,  unlike Kerry, could never be accused for being on the 'wrong' side of defence and national security. The only thing Bush would have had going for him is a reluctance on the part of the electorate to change skipper at a time of war, and even this (even allowing for "moral values"), I doubt would have been enough to propel the economically mediocre, and fiscally incompetent, Bush back to the White House.

Bush won because his opponent was Kerry - an ultra-liberal, who was never going to personify the political mainstream. The 2004 election was a classical polarised election (i.e. liberal Democrat versus conservative Republican), which gave Bush an inherent advantage. Kerry, in a nutshell, did not appeal to rural and/or conservative voters in a way that Bayh does; hence, the result of 2004 could have been very different - but I suspect (if your map is anything to go by) not to a result of your liking

Dave

[minionofmidas]

I actually don't think it would have made all that much difference. Probably just enough difference to swing the election though.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

[J. J.]

A.  I'd expect Bayh to win and the Bayh/Gephardt (or Gephardt/Bayh) would possibly have been the strongest D ticket in 2004.

B.  I generally agree with TOCB.  There are five really close states:  NV, NM, AR, IN, WV.  Depending on how well he does in the debates, Bayh could have had 314 EV.