Will Cuomo get a higher % of the vote in the general election...

[Eraserhead]

He received 62.2% of the vote in his party's primary (2014).

He received 62.6% of the vote in the 2010 general election.

I don't think he will. I don't see Rob Astorino performing much better than Carl Paladino but I think Hawkins will win too much of the white liberal vote for Cuomo to break 60% this time.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes, I imagine Cuomo gets around 65%.

[TDAS04]

Probably.

[Miles]

I'm gonna say yes.

Astorino is a better candidate, but he'll certainly won't be able to put up Paladino's numbers around Buffalo. That region should swing hard to Cuomo (especially with Hochul), which will discount Astorino's gains elsewhere.

[xavier110]

No

[Flake]

It depends on how well Hawkins does among liberals.

[Suburbia]

I don't think so. It may be 60%-61% percent.

[cinyc]

Probably - but not by much.  Astorino will be lucky to do as well as Paladino.  He simply cannot replicate Paladino's results in Western New York.  He'd need to run significantly better than Paladino in the NYC suburbs and the rest of Upstate to compensate.  Barring a Cuomo indictment, that's probably not going to happen.

Hawkins will probably do better than his 2010 performance, where he was barely over the 50,000 vote threshold to give the Green Party permanent ballot access. If he quadruples his 2010 performance and gets 5% and other minor party candidates get 2%, Astorino would have to get about 31% to push Cuomo below his primary percentage.  That's 2 points worse than Paladino's showing in 2010 - which is possible with lesser Western New York support.  So it should be close.

By the way, the primary numbers aren't final.  It's very likely that absentees haven't been counted yet.  I'd expect Cuomo to do slightly better in absentees than Teachout because he's the machine candidate and absentees tend to favor machine candidates in primaries.  So Cuomo's mark to beat in the general may be higher.

[KCDem]

No, because Cuomo will lose the general.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

No, because Cuomo will lose the general.

lol. To whom, may I ask?

[Eraserhead]

Probably - but not by much.  Astorino will be lucky to do as well as Paladino.  He simply cannot replicate Paladino's results in Western New York.  He'd need to run significantly better than Paladino in the NYC suburbs and the rest of Upstate to compensate.  Barring a Cuomo indictment, that's probably not going to happen.

Hawkins will probably do better than his 2010 performance, where he was barely over the 50,000 vote threshold to give the Green Party permanent ballot access. If he quadruples his 2010 performance and gets 5% and other minor party candidates get 2%, Astorino would have to get about 31% to push Cuomo below his primary percentage.  That's 2 points worse than Paladino's showing in 2010 - which is possible with lesser Western New York support.  So it should be close.

By the way, the primary numbers aren't final.  It's very likely that absentees haven't been counted yet.  I'd expect Cuomo to do slightly better in absentees than Teachout because he's the machine candidate and absentees tend to favor machine candidates in primaries.  So Cuomo's mark to beat in the general may be higher.

It might be 62.4% or whatever instead of 62.2% but I doubt it's going change anybody's answer here.

[President Johnson]

He will win with around 64%.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, 63-64% probably.

[Maxwell]

Eh, I say Cuomo gets 58%, with Astorino at 32 or 33, and then Hawkins at 7 or 8.