Which suburban Chicago counties will the Democrats drop in 2016?

[Mr. Illini]

In 2004, George Bush captured all of Chicago's suburban collar counties.

In 2008, Barack Obama captured all of Chicago's suburban collar counties.

In 2012, Mitt Romney picked up the most traditionally Republican suburban collar counties of McHenry County and Kendall County as well as picking up a historical swing county of Kankakee County. Barack Obama kept the rest of the area, but with close margins in the western suburbs, historically the most conservative ones.

Which Obama counties in 2012 will the Republicans win in 2012, showing a deterioration of the hometown effect, and which will they keep, illustrating a clear bluing of the suburbs?

My prediction:

[Gass3268]

I agree with your predictions, but I don't know about Kane and DuPage. I think it would depend on who the Republicans nominate and if Latino growth in the suburbs continues.

[Never]

Kane, DuPage, DeKalb, and Will were all fairly close in 2012. I could see a Republican winning all four in 2016, but that would probably take a national victory of 51-52%. If it is a very close election and the Republican wins with just 49-50% of the vote, he or she might only peel off Kane and DuPage, which only gave Obama 49% of the vote. Lake County might be out of reach for the GOP barring a very good night.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think Cook and Lake will be the two counties with a D PVI.

[eric82oslo]

Which Obama counties in 2012 will the Republicans win in 2012, showing a deterioration of the hometown effect, and which will they keep, illustrating a clear bluing of the suburbs?

How do you know that? Hillary was born and raised in Chicago, while Obama only used Chicago as his adopted home town, as he was born and raised in Hawaii (& Indonesia).

[ElectionsGuy]

I think the republicans will get back all except Lake.

[henster]

I think the favorite son effect for Obama wore off in 2012 it looked like IL reverted back to what a win for a generic D looks like in IL for now. These counties may or not be gone for good for the Rs.

[pbrower2a]

Kane and DuPage are more likely to go R with a slight shift from D to R in Illinois.

Northern suburbs have drifted D.