WIll Republicans in next 20 years replace VA/Fl with PA/MI as must have states

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Since we all know Ohio, Virginia, and Florida are must have Republican states at this time, will there be a time in the next twenty years when FL is so far to the left and Pa and MI are closer to being won?
I say maybe.
Also, there is a third option, which people who think VA will be replaced by PA but FL won't be replaced by MI should vote. (my choice).
So, I think Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida will be the future must have states.

[NHI]

I think PA will go before MI.

[RTX]

I could see Michigan being in the R column, with Pennsylvania a legitimate possibility.

In Michigan's favor, the State House that was most recently elected (keep in mind it was also a Presidential election) is more Republican percentage-wise than Texas, and roughly equal to Indiana. Also, Snyder is currently favored to be re-elected and Land to win the Senate, indicating a sustained Republican trend on the state level.

Western Pennsylvania could continue to trend R as the Marcellus Shale brings in more energy-based industry to the region.

Detroit will probably continue to lose population whereas Philadelphia remains pretty much the same.

[Heimdal]

I think it is far too early to tell. But it certainly is a legitimate case for investing more time and effort into states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. The Republicans have been too focused on Colorado, Virginia and Nevada.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I think PA will go before MI.

Agreed.

[dmmidmi]

I could see Michigan being in the R column, with Pennsylvania a legitimate possibility.

In Michigan's favor, the State House that was most recently elected (keep in mind it was also a Presidential election) is more Republican percentage-wise than Texas, and roughly equal to Indiana. Also, Snyder is currently favored to be re-elected and Land to win the Senate, indicating a sustained Republican trend on the state level.

Western Pennsylvania could continue to trend R as the Marcellus Shale brings in more energy-based industry to the region.

Detroit will probably continue to lose population whereas Philadelphia remains pretty much the same.

This reflects voters moving from the city to the suburbs. While the city's population has plummeted in recent years, Metro Detroit's population has remained pretty stable.

Michigan has routinely elected Republican Governors (Romney, Milliken, Engler, and now Snyder) while at the same time, sending Democrats to the Senate on a nearly-consistent basis, and casting its electoral votes for the Democratic nominee for President. I don't see how this is any part of an overall narrative that Michigan is trending towards Republicans at the Presidential level.

And no, Land isn't "favored" to win.

[Mr. Illini]

Once again, confused at which demographic will be sending these states into the Republican column. I just don't see either of them going R anytime soon, so I voted no.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

They should all be must have states. Florida and Pennsylvania will most likely be, Virginia as well if the trends haven't sped up too much. Michigan is a big if right now, I'm skeptical about the R trend that's supposed to be taking place, but at the same time competing for it cannot hurt.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think Virginia might be switched out with Pennsylvania, but Florida will still be competitive and Michigan will still be blue.

[Non Swing Voter]

I voted yes simply because they will need to focus on them in 20 years.  Virginia will be long gone by then... I don't see Florida being long gone though, simply because it's too important to not invest tons of resources in.  If Republicans lost Florida it's game over for a long time.  By then Florida will have a ton of electoral votes, probably more than Pennsylvania and Michigan combined.

[illegaloperation]

I think Virginia might be switched out with Pennsylvania, but Florida will still be competitive and Michigan will still be blue.

ditto

Florida will continue to be battleground because of how lousy the Florida Democratic Party is.