Is NJ-Gov "Safe R" now?

[TX Conservative Dem]

ElectionsGuy, Christie gets 10 percent of African Americans ?

That's embarrassing man: he needs between 16-22 percent of this bloc and also need almost 40 percent of Latinos.

Remember, Christine Todd Whitman won 25 percent of African Americans in 1993 in her successful bid for the governorship against Florio.

[ElectionsGuy]

ElectionsGuy, Christie gets 10 percent of African Americans ?

That's embarrassing man: he needs between 16-22 percent of this bloc and also need almost 40 percent of Latinos.

Remember, Christine Todd Whitman won 25 percent of African Americans in 1993 in her successful bid for the governorship against Florio.

It was a guess, I have no idea what kind of support he'll get. 10% is normal for republicans and black vote is the mostly in-elastic. In that case that you described, he'll get more minority vote and less white vote than I described.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I'm betting Christie will get somewhere between 16-23 percent of Blacks and 39-40 percent of Latinos.

Not sure about Asian American voters though.

[hopper]

Christie lost urban counties like Essex, Camden, and Hudson by good margins last time and still won.  Corzine had good approvals in Essex and Hudson on election day 2009 but his approvals were underwater in the rest of the state. Christie only lost Bergen by 4% though and the Southeast Part of the County by the George Washington Bridge(the bridge that goes to Bronx, NY) has a lot of Asians living there like in Fort Lee and maybe even Leonia. I think Christie lost Union County by 18% last time out.

[Brittain33]

I'm saying Likely R only because Christie is undisciplined enough to make an unthinkable comment that gives Buono an opening in a state that favors Dem. But I have little expectation of that happening. I'd reserve safe for cases where the incumbent fits his state's political lean AND his opponent is not credible (as opposed to just hopeless, like Buono).

Ok, fine, it's Safe R.