Who will the Cardinals choose as the new Pope?

[Blue3]

Nobody expected Benedict, or John Paul, either, I believe.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And the winner is... Ernest!

It won't be Scola.  I don't see the Roman Church appointing a Benedict 16.1.  He's too much like Benedict XVI.  He's more a theologian than an administrator or a pastoralist, and right now another theologian is not what is needed as the Bishop of Rome.

Who do you think is likely?

There are quite a few candidates.  If I had to guess, they'll be aiming for a pope like John Paul, the first not the second, but one who hopefully stays on the papal throne longer than 33 days. If they go for a non-European, I think Scherer is the likeliest one, but not the only possibility. However, it won't be Bergoglio.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I thought he was too old.  I was right in the type of person they would go for and I did predict Francis as a possible choice of the name, tho I thought a new or seldom used name would be unlikely.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Nobody expected Benedict, or John Paul, either, I believe.

Benedict was Dean of the College of Cardinals, and I believe was the heir apparent. He ended up taking a wide lead on the first ballot and had secured it easily by the fourth.

[minionofmidas]

Nobody expected Benedict, or John Paul, either, I believe.

Wut? It was basically "50% Ratzinger, 50% some longshot that nobody expects".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I was 12-year-old during the 2005 conclave and I well remember hearing the name "Ratzinger" mentioned in the news dozens of time before he was elected.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Can Cardinal Dolan, Archbishop of New York, be considered as a serious contender for Pope at this point?

Thoughts?

For future reference, when they go through this again in however many years, forget about a Pope coming out of the U.S..  It will not happen in your lifetime or the lifetime of your great great great grandkids.  K? Thx.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Can Cardinal Dolan, Archbishop of New York, be considered as a serious contender for Pope at this point?

Thoughts?

For future reference, when they go through this again in however many years, forget about a Pope coming out of the U.S..  It will not happen in your lifetime or the lifetime of your great great great grandkids.  K? Thx.

It might happen in Phil's lifetime, assuming that the US goes into a decline.