Who will the Cardinals choose as the new Pope?

[Lincoln Republican]

Ouellet's the most logical. You don't want another European, but I don't think most would consider it time for someone from the developing world now. If they do pick someone from a developing country, Scherer or Tagle would be logical, Turkson would be a bad choice.

Turkson will not get it.  He tends to be a bit of a showboater, and has been all but campaigning openly for the position.

An old Roman saying warns about campaigning, even indiscreetly, to become pope or even trying to predict the outcome of conclaves.

It goes: “He who enters a conclave as pope, exits as a cardinal.”

(Turkson article)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Turkson I'd like to see get it but Bertone will get it.

At 78, I believe the conclave will choose to go with a younger candidate than Bertone.

None of the over 75s will be elected on an early ballot, but if they find themselves deadlocked between younger candidates, an older candidate might be put forth as a compromise candidate who would be expected to not hold the keys for long.

[7,052,770]

Ouellet's the most logical. You don't want another European, but I don't think most would consider it time for someone from the developing world now. If they do pick someone from a developing country, Scherer or Tagle would be logical, Turkson would be a bad choice.

Ouellet is worse than Dolan.  He would permanently damage the Church in so many people's eyes.

Turkson has said some bad things about gays, but other than that, he would be pretty great for symbolic and economic reasons.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Ouellet's the most logical. You don't want another European, but I don't think most would consider it time for someone from the developing world now. If they do pick someone from a developing country, Scherer or Tagle would be logical, Turkson would be a bad choice.

Ouellet is worse than Dolan.  He would permanently damage the Church in so many people's eyes.

I know that he's incredibly conservative, but I also said he's the most "logical" and there's no reason to believe the conclave isn't going to pick a conservative. I'm not expecting to approve of the pick and you probably shouldn't either.

Turkson has said some bad things about gays, but other than that, he would be pretty great for symbolic and economic reasons.

That video he made about Islam is the type of image the Catholic Church would prefer to avoid (they're fine with gay-bashing, but not outright Muslim-bashing) and of course giving interviews where he talks like he's already got the position isn't a help.

[Fritz]

I'm hoping for the first black pope. 

[Old Man Svensson]

Non-Christian perspective: expecting Turkson, hoping for Tagle.

[Mr. Morden]

Just before Intrade shut down, Scherer was surging, and was up to third place in the betting.  Now he's up to second place on Paddy Power:

Angelo Scola (Italy), age 71: 9/4 odds
Odilo Scherer (Brazil), age 63: 4/1 odds
Peter Turkson (Ghana), age 64: 9/2 odds
Tarcisio Bertone (Italy), age 78: 5/1 odds
Marc Ouellet (Canada), age 68: 10/1 odds

[7,052,770]

Ouellet's the most logical. You don't want another European, but I don't think most would consider it time for someone from the developing world now. If they do pick someone from a developing country, Scherer or Tagle would be logical, Turkson would be a bad choice.

Ouellet is worse than Dolan.  He would permanently damage the Church in so many people's eyes.

I know that he's incredibly conservative, but I also said he's the most "logical" and there's no reason to believe the conclave isn't going to pick a conservative. I'm not expecting to approve of the pick and you probably shouldn't either.

In 2005 we were a few votes away from electing a cardinal who endorsed gay civil unions. You never know.

[Frodo]

Just before Intrade shut down, Scherer was surging, and was up to third place in the betting.  Now he's up to second place on Paddy Power:

Angelo Scola (Italy), age 71: 9/4 odds
Odilo Scherer (Brazil), age 63: 4/1 odds
Peter Turkson (Ghana), age 64: 9/2 odds
Tarcisio Bertone (Italy), age 78: 5/1 odds
Marc Ouellet (Canada), age 68: 10/1 odds

Yes, I think that ultimately Odilo Scherer will be our next Pope.  He is from the Third World where Catholicism is growing exponentially, but given his family background (German, I think) he is not so foreign to the cardinals tasked with making the decision.  So there is a comfort level with him they may not have with an African candidate like Turkson.  

[Lincoln Republican]

Evidently, sources close to the Vatican have been reporting that Scola, Scherer, and Ouellet have emerged as the main contenders, now that the conclave has actually begun.

Anyone else agree with this assessment?

[Mr. Morden]

Evidently, sources close to the Vatican have been reporting that Scola, Scherer, and Ouellet have emerged as the main contenders, now that the conclave has actually begun.

Source?  Where would they be getting this information from, given the extraordinary measures taken to seal off the cardinals from the outside world?

[Lincoln Republican]

I heard it on a radio newscast from a Vatican reporter, but nonetheless, these three emerging as the front runners does make sense to me.

[Blue3]

Angelo Scola Anti-Mafia Raid: Police Swarm Diocese Of Papal Frontrunner

Anti-mafia police on Tuesday raided the homes, offices and clinics in the diocese of papal frontrunner Angelo Scola.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/12/angelo-scola-anti-mafia-raid-video_n_2864074.html



The cardinals locked inside the Vatican aren't even allowed to know about this, are they?

[TJ in Oregon]

I'd rather see a non-Italian, but more than anything else I want to see a pope who is a better manager while and this should go without saying maintains Catholic theological and moral teachings. Basically I'd like a reformer of the same mindset of Ratzinger but with a different skillset. Perhaps it's time for a lay person to run the Vatican bank for example? Perhaps a lay media relations director of some sort could be good too in this information age. I don't think many people would dispute that Ratzinger's Roman Curia was something of a mess. Someone with managerial skills would be a great asset. Of course this goes in addition to him being a holy man of great intelligence able to speak a slew of languages and connect easily to people.

Who best embodies all these qualities? I have no idea. But that's what I'd like to see from the new pope.

This meme sums up how the election is probably going:

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Angelo Scola Anti-Mafia Raid: Police Swarm Diocese Of Papal Frontrunner

Anti-mafia police on Tuesday raided the homes, offices and clinics in the diocese of papal frontrunner Angelo Scola.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/12/angelo-scola-anti-mafia-raid-video_n_2864074.html



The cardinals locked inside the Vatican aren't even allowed to know about this, are they?

I sincerely hope there's some way for them to be covertly made aware. I can't believe I'm saying that as it feels almost like a desecration even though I'm not actually Catholic, but it looks more and more like Scola, with whom I was formerly more or less okay, would be an absolute disaster.

[Blue3]

Maybe they need a total disaster in order to really see how dire it is for them, in order to do something differently...

[Obamanation]

Angelo Scola Anti-Mafia Raid: Police Swarm Diocese Of Papal Frontrunner

Anti-mafia police on Tuesday raided the homes, offices and clinics in the diocese of papal frontrunner Angelo Scola.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/12/angelo-scola-anti-mafia-raid-video_n_2864074.html



The cardinals locked inside the Vatican aren't even allowed to know about this, are they?

I sincerely hope there's some way for them to be covertly made aware. I can't believe I'm saying that as it feels almost like a desecration even though I'm not actually Catholic, but it looks more and more like Scola, with whom I was formerly more or less okay, would be an absolute disaster.

Scola will be fine. He's Italian and we want an Italian pope. Enough with these foreigners.

[Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu]

Angelo Scola Anti-Mafia Raid: Police Swarm Diocese Of Papal Frontrunner

Anti-mafia police on Tuesday raided the homes, offices and clinics in the diocese of papal frontrunner Angelo Scola.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/12/angelo-scola-anti-mafia-raid-video_n_2864074.html



The cardinals locked inside the Vatican aren't even allowed to know about this, are they?

I sincerely hope there's some way for them to be covertly made aware. I can't believe I'm saying that as it feels almost like a desecration even though I'm not actually Catholic, but it looks more and more like Scola, with whom I was formerly more or less okay, would be an absolute disaster.

Scola will be fine. He's Italian and we want an Italian pope. Enough with these foreigners.

Agreed that there's nothing wrong with the mere fact that Scola is Italian.

[Obamanation]

Angelo Scola Anti-Mafia Raid: Police Swarm Diocese Of Papal Frontrunner

Anti-mafia police on Tuesday raided the homes, offices and clinics in the diocese of papal frontrunner Angelo Scola.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/12/angelo-scola-anti-mafia-raid-video_n_2864074.html



The cardinals locked inside the Vatican aren't even allowed to know about this, are they?

I sincerely hope there's some way for them to be covertly made aware. I can't believe I'm saying that as it feels almost like a desecration even though I'm not actually Catholic, but it looks more and more like Scola, with whom I was formerly more or less okay, would be an absolute disaster.

Scola will be fine. He's Italian and we want an Italian pope. Enough with these foreigners.

Agreed that there's nothing wrong with the mere fact that Scola is Italian.

This mafia thing looks like a setup to me...

[Blue3]

Then they would have done it before the enclave doors shut...

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I hope its the ghana card. True break from sex scandle and allow bishops to marry.

[DINGO Joe]

Tagle, the young guy from the Phillipines, would be the smartest choice. Charismatic, energetic, humble, from a developing country, no controversies, etc.

If it's another Italian, or another old bookish type... then the cardinals all need to get a head examination.

You know who may have committed papal candidacy suicide? Peter Turkson. His ant-Islam flaming, and being so presumptive and basically assuming he will be Pope, are just awful.

Tagle is also my prefered choice, and is the best candidate. I hope he is selected. Turkson would be terrible.

Can Cardinal Dolan, Archbishop of New York, be considered as a serious contender for Pope at this point?

Thoughts?

Not a chance in hell.

Not being Catholic and not being familiar with the process, I am curious, how many votes does Hell have  and can a pope win without winning Hell?

[Lincoln Republican]

The conclave will begin on Tuesday, and will probably take a few days:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/world/europe/cardinals-conclave-pope.html?_r=0

(Which will we have first?  The election of a new pope, or the CPAC straw poll results?)

Here's the latest from the betting markets.  Top 6 contenders according to Paddy Power:

Angelo Scola (Italy), age 71: 5/2 odds
Peter Turkson (Ghana), age 64: 7/2 odds
Tarcisio Bertone (Italy), age 78: 5/1 odds
Odilo Scherer (Brazil), age 63: 8/1 odds
Marc Ouellet (Canada), age 68: 10/1 odds
Christoph Schonborn (Austria), age 68: 12/1

And the top 6 according to Intrade:

Angelo Scola (Italy), age 71: 25.5
Peter Turkson (Ghana), age 64: 18.9
Marc Ouellet (Canada), age 68: 9.0
Tarcisio Bertone (Italy), age 78: 8.4
Odilo Scherer (Brazil), age 63: 7.5
Gianfranco Ravasi (Italy), age 70: 5.0

So much for the accuracy of Paddy Power and Intrade.

[Lincoln Republican]

Nobody here got it right.

The new Pope was coasting under the radar. 

[Robert California]

Nobody here got it right.

The new Pope was coasting under the radar. 

I discussed the possibility of a dark horse candidate with my religion teacher. I never expected it though.