The Future of Iraq

[Democratic Hawk]

Come on then peeps ...

Dave

[The Duke]

I voted liberal democracy/capitalist economy.  It certainly won't be a theocracy, and folks need to lay off the Shi'a bashing.  It won't become arab nationalist, because the Sunnis are the minority and they're the only ones who would want that.  It won't be a western Europe style democracy, but Turkey without the anti-Kurd war would be nice.

[Colin]

I voted Liberal Democrat/Free Market. Iraq isn't going to turn into Holland overnight. I think in 10 years it will be a working Democracy which will have an economy that is getting stronger and growing and a good rate. It will probably be at the same level as Belize, Costa Rica, or Slovenia. Countries with stable economies and stable democracies but, either, have an economy that is not up to the First World yet or a Democratic system that, while being a true liberal Democracy, is dominated by one party, like Japan until the '90s. I think that is a respectable goal for 10 years out.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It will be similar to nowadays Russia. Technically a democracy, but with a leader who doesn´t care much about civil rights or political freedoms.

[WMS]

I voted liberal democracy/capitalist economy.  It certainly won't be a theocracy, and folks need to lay off the Shi'a bashing.  It won't become arab nationalist, because the Sunnis are the minority and they're the only ones who would want that.  It won't be a western Europe style democracy, but Turkey without the anti-Kurd war would be nice.

^^^^^^^^^

I would only add that it will not be as secular as Turkey ostensibly is - like it or not, this is not going to be a liberal secular state like Germany or France or Denmark where religion is unimportant in politics. But it will be a democracy, nonetheless, even if there is more blood to be spilled yet before it stabilizes...mostly Sunni Arab blood, for that matter.

[2952-0-0]

Probably like Turkey or Jordan. But if the Shiites take over too quickly we'll see another Iran.

[opebo]

Its already well along the way to its eventual status - Shia Theocracy.  Have you seen who is winning the 'election'?

[2952-0-0]

Its already well along the way to its eventual status - Shia Theocracy.  Have you seen who is winning the 'election'?

Okay, it would be a Japan-like democracy: free and fair elections, but one party winning all the time.

[opebo]

Its already well along the way to its eventual status - Shia Theocracy.  Have you seen who is winning the 'election'?

Okay, it would be a Japan-like democracy: free and fair elections, but one party winning all the time.

The point was it is the religious party that is winning.

[J. J.]

Its already well along the way to its eventual status - Shia Theocracy.  Have you seen who is winning the 'election'?

Okay, it would be a Japan-like democracy: free and fair elections, but one party winning all the time.

The point was it is the religious party that is winning.

You are putting perhaps too much emphasis on "religious" party.  You are in a situation where Shi'a Muslims are in the majority, but not an overwhelming majority.

[Jake]

Once the whole country has voted and all sides, (Kudish, Shiite, Sunni, etc) have equal proportions, I doubt we will see the establishment of a theocracy.  I suppose we will see a democracy, not unlike Turkey, but with one very strong party (religious Shiites) and a few smaller important parties (Sunni, Kurds, secular Shiites).

[phk]

It will eventually be a Shia Theocracy; they will always win due to sheer numbers.

The Sunni's are divided along ethnic lines as well (Kurd vs Arab), which  is somethign the Shia's dont have.

[opebo]

Its already well along the way to its eventual status - Shia Theocracy.  Have you seen who is winning the 'election'?

Okay, it would be a Japan-like democracy: free and fair elections, but one party winning all the time.

The point was it is the religious party that is winning.

You are putting perhaps too much emphasis on "religious" party.  You are in a situation where Shi'a Muslims are in the majority, but not an overwhelming majority.

Doesn't matter as long as you have 51%, as we're learning with our own religious party here.

[phk]

LOL

[minionofmidas]

The new Afghanistan.

Ready to be positively surprised, though.

[Silent Hunter]

A somewhat religious liberal democracy.

Whatever it is, it'll almost certainly be better than it was under Saddam.

[Hitchabrut]

Like Turkey?