Obama Approval Thread October 10/16/12-1/20/13

[Mister Twister]

J.J., can I call you "Big Dog"? Beause in this topic, you are the St. Bernard of posters

[Drew1830]

Has an incumbent President ever lost with a +2-3 approval rating on election day? This is much more predictive than the silly nonsense about Romney being over 50% in Gallup.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  51, +1

Disapprove:  48, u

Strongly Approve:  33, +2

Strongly Disapprove:  41, -1

Head to Head:

Romney: 48%, u

Obama:  48%, u

It is probably the initial hurricane effect.  Only one day (partial) with the Unemployment numbers. 

[Drew1830]

Has an incumbent President ever lost with a +2-3 approval rating on election day? This is much more predictive than the silly nonsense about Romney being over 50% in Gallup.

RCP average of Presidential Approval Ratings.

November 3, 2004: Bush +2.7
November 3, 2012: Obama +2.9

[J. J.]

Has an incumbent President ever lost with a +2-3 approval rating on election day? This is much more predictive than the silly nonsense about Romney being over 50% in Gallup.

RCP average of Presidential Approval Ratings.

November 3, 2004: Bush +2.7
November 3, 2012: Obama +2.9

The Gallup average isn't in that.  Did PPP poll in 2004? 

[Drew1830]

Has an incumbent President ever lost with a +2-3 approval rating on election day? This is much more predictive than the silly nonsense about Romney being over 50% in Gallup.

RCP average of Presidential Approval Ratings.

November 3, 2004: Bush +2.7
November 3, 2012: Obama +2.9

The Gallup average isn't in that.  Did PPP poll in 2004? 

The Gallup poll is included. It's Obama +7 from 10/28/12.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  51, u

Disapprove:  49, +1

Strongly Approve:  36, +3

Strongly Disapprove:  44, +3

Head to Head:

Romney: 49%, u

Obama:  49%, u

[Lief 🗽]

Weird that you're not mentioning the huge surge in strongly approve for Obama that's happened over the last week, despite harping on his decline with that metric when it was happening a few weeks ago.

[J. J.]

Weird that you're not mentioning the huge surge in strongly approve for Obama that's happened over the last week, despite harping on his decline with that metric when it was happening a few weeks ago.

I did, when it rebounded.  Now we're seeing polarization. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama Approval http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history  :

Approve:  50, -1

Disapprove:  49, u

Strongly Approve:  36, u

Strongly Disapprove:  44, u

Head to Head:

Romney: 49%, u

Obama:  48%, -1

[Yank2133]

Gallup

Approval-52
Disapproval-45

[J. J.]

Gallup

Approval-52
Disapproval-45

Thanks. 

[Lief 🗽]

ABC/WaPo

Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 48%

[dspNY]

RCP's Obama approval rating is exactly 50%, the magic reelection number for incumbents