Romney best path through Obama firewall?
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Poll
Question: Which state Romney most likely to win?
#1
OH		  
#2
NV		  
#3
WI		  
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Total Voters: 38

Author Topic: Romney best path through Obama firewall?  (Read 626 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 16, 2012, 01:47:11 PM »
Let's assume Romney continues to do well and he pulls ahead in six of the battlegrounds (NC, VA, FL, NH, IA, CO) with Obama's  leading in just 3 states: NV, OH and WI. Those 3 give Obama 271 EVs. A loss in any of them and he loses the election. So which one is Romney's best opportunity?
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2012, 01:49:41 PM »
OH > NV > WI
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2012, 01:54:49 PM »
Romney's not going to win Nevada or Wisconsin before he's already won 270 electoral votes. It's Ohio.
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cavalcade
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2012, 01:59:42 PM »
OH>WI>NV.  NV is probably Obama +5-6 right now, WI more like +2-3, Ohio +1.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2012, 02:00:28 PM »
OH, though I think he has the money to do both.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2012, 02:15:19 PM »
Each requires a different strategy to win, Romney will probably win 2 of 3, if he only wins 1 of 3 it's probably Ohio. 
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2012, 06:06:34 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2012, 09:26:02 PM by SPC »
Current polls seem to suggest Nevada is closer for Romney than Ohio. Even assuming that the Democratic overperformance in Nevada in 2008 and 2010 was just a fluke, using Nevada to put Romney over the top comes with the risk that Romney cannot afford to lose any other state in his column except NH. OH, while a riskier bet, comes with the security that a win in OH makes it possible to win while losing either two of CO, IA, and NH or VA.

WI has neither the large electoral prize of OH nor the relative closeness of NV.
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Badger
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2012, 07:26:22 PM »
Quote from: Lief on October 16, 2012, 01:54:49 PM
Romney's not going to win Nevada or Wisconsin before he's already won 270 electoral votes. It's Ohio.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2012, 07:57:13 PM »
Ohio and Wisconsin, Virginia is part of the firewall.
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