Which state is more likely to vote Democrat in the future: Oklahoma or Utah?

[greenforest32]

?

[morgieb]

Utah's slowly turning blue, if the Mormon population decreases than it can become swingy. Oklahoma has quite a lot of registered Dems but it's turning red and most Dems there are DINO's.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Utah, but none of them is likely in the next 50 years at least.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Neither for a while; Mormons are fiscally conservative as well.

I'd guess Oklahoma if Democrats are able to win back poor white Southerners, but even then Oklahoma is the least likely state in the South to vote Republican.

[morgieb]

Neither for a while; Mormons are fiscally conservative as well.

I'd guess Oklahoma if Democrats are able to win back poor white Southerners, but even then Oklahoma is the least likely state in the South to vote Republican.

Don't you mean Democrat?

Also, don't the Democrats have more registered Democrats in Oklahoma than in plenty of other Southern states?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yes, Democrat.

However, Oklahoma Republicans were Republicans before the Southern strategy (more like Kansas Republicans), and Tulsa has always been a Republican city, so I suspect it would be the hardest Southern state to flip D.

[The Ex-Factor]

Isn't Salt Lake City actually quite liberal? There should continue to be a stead influx of out of state non-Mormons that makes Utah trend Democratic. I just can't see a similar situation happening in Oklahoma.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Utah.

[Zioneer]

Oklahoma. Utah just doesn't have a large enough Democratic population (even allowing for a Democratic Governor/Senator and/or a potential emerging minority population) to go reliably Democrat.

Although, depending on how successful the LDS Dems are in the near future, I could be wrong. In fact, hopefully I'm wrong, since I'll be living in Utah for the time being.

[Mechaman]

Oklahoma. Utah just doesn't have a large enough Democratic population (even allowing for a Democratic Governor/Senator and/or a potential emerging minority population) to go reliably Democrat.

Although, depending on how successful the LDS Dems are in the near future, I could be wrong. In fact, hopefully I'm wrong, since I'll be living in Utah for the time being.

Yes, but about half of the Democrats in Oklahoma might as well be Republicans.

The only reason that a lot of them are still Democratic is because they are too lazy to change their party ID or "it's in the family tradition".  The average Utah Independent is probably to the left of the average Oklahoma "Democrat".

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Oklahoma. Utah just doesn't have a large enough Democratic population (even allowing for a Democratic Governor/Senator and/or a potential emerging minority population) to go reliably Democrat.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure we're not talking about 'reliable' Democrat.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Oklahoma. Utah just doesn't have a large enough Democratic population (even allowing for a Democratic Governor/Senator and/or a potential emerging minority population) to go reliably Democrat.

Although, depending on how successful the LDS Dems are in the near future, I could be wrong. In fact, hopefully I'm wrong, since I'll be living in Utah for the time being.

Yes, but about half of the Democrats in Oklahoma might as well be Republicans.

The only reason that a lot of them are still Democratic is because they are too lazy to change their party ID or "it's in the family tradition".  The average Utah Independent is probably to the left of the average Oklahoma "Democrat".

There are some blacks, Hispanics, and Indians who vote solidly Democratic, and a few of the Oklahoma whites are also liberal (mostly in OK City and maybe a couple in Little Dixie)

[Mechaman]

Oklahoma. Utah just doesn't have a large enough Democratic population (even allowing for a Democratic Governor/Senator and/or a potential emerging minority population) to go reliably Democrat.

Although, depending on how successful the LDS Dems are in the near future, I could be wrong. In fact, hopefully I'm wrong, since I'll be living in Utah for the time being.

Yes, but about half of the Democrats in Oklahoma might as well be Republicans.

The only reason that a lot of them are still Democratic is because they are too lazy to change their party ID or "it's in the family tradition".  The average Utah Independent is probably to the left of the average Oklahoma "Democrat".

There are some blacks, Hispanics, and Indians who vote solidly Democratic, and a few of the Oklahoma whites are also liberal (mostly in OK City and maybe a couple in Little Dixie)

Well duh, which is why I said "about half of the Democrats".

Considering that 66% or whatever of the population are Democrats, it makes perfect sense.  Maybe saying that the average Dem is to the left of the average Utah Independent is a bit of a stretch, but still.

Once you equate the amount of DINOs in OKlahoma, it's pretty much even with the amount of Democrats in Utah.

[tpfkaw]

Oklahoma, obviously.  Clinton-esque Appalachian in a landslide.

[BaldEagle1991]

Oklahoma, since they have been more Dems registered then GOPers.

Utah will be pretty hard, considering the LDS population is still pretty high.

[EmersonAdams]

It would be insanely difficult to flip either one, but I think a strong, conservative southern Dem would at least have a chance of winning Oklahoma. In the future, the Hispanic population in both states will probably rise somewhat, but it would take more than some small demographic shifts before either one is ready to become a battleground state. At least in OK, the dems have some party infrastructure in place that could help a democratic candidate.

[HappyWarrior]

Oklahoma. Utah just doesn't have a large enough Democratic population (even allowing for a Democratic Governor/Senator and/or a potential emerging minority population) to go reliably Democrat.

Although, depending on how successful the LDS Dems are in the near future, I could be wrong. In fact, hopefully I'm wrong, since I'll be living in Utah for the time being.

Yes, but about half of the Democrats in Oklahoma might as well be Republicans.

The only reason that a lot of them are still Democratic is because they are too lazy to change their party ID or "it's in the family tradition".  The average Utah Independent is probably to the left of the average Oklahoma "Democrat".

Oklahoma Democrats sound like the Democrats on Maryland's Eastern Shore.

[BaldEagle1991]

It would be insanely difficult to flip either one, but I think a strong, conservative southern Dem would at least have a chance of winning Oklahoma. In the future, the Hispanic population in both states will probably rise somewhat, but it would take more than some small demographic shifts before either one is ready to become a battleground state. At least in OK, the dems have some party infrastructure in place that could help a democratic candidate.

Utah will be moot, because I think most Hispanics in UT are LDS converts, if not more likely to become one.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Utah.  Once the current culture war issues get settled, the hard-edged Anti-Mormonism of many evangelicals is likely to lead the two groups to separate politically, and it is likelier that the Mormons move than the evangelicals do.

[LastVoter]

Oklahoma in the very short term(next 5 years), Utah in  about 10-15 years when enough minorities & non-LDS adherents move in.